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  • #1,052,141
  • Jan 23, 2016 1:28pm Jan 23, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If you took the short good for you - it's at all time mid.

Sadly...over the last couple weeks I've only been chipping away at USDCAD and gaining a better taste of WTI. (just getting back into the charts from my seasonal hiatus).

Given the All Time Mid...I think I got some time to shake a few sheckles from this turn.

Play strength the GBP and weakness to EUR...see how the USD reacts over the next few weeks.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,052,142
  • Jan 23, 2016 1:30pm Jan 23, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Fxcm M15,H1 {image} {image}
Here's my FXCM chart. There's is definitely something wrong with what you are seeing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,052,143
  • Jan 23, 2016 3:11pm Jan 23, 2016 3:11pm
After doing more research, I will buy USL instead. It's an oil ETF that invests equally into the next 12 future contract months.

USO invests only into the spot month, and then rolls to the next month. I knew there was something a little off with USO correlation with the actual price.

USL's 2014 peak to 2016 low is only -68%, more reflecting that of actual crude. USO is -76%

When USO rose in 2009-2011, it didn't rise as much as USL, due to contango.

Only problem is USL is nowhere near as liquid, but that shouldn't matter for my small position size.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,144
  • Jan 23, 2016 4:21pm Jan 23, 2016 4:21pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
After doing more research, I will buy USL instead. It's an oil ETF that invests equally into the next 12 future contract months. USO invests only into the spot month, and then rolls to the next month. I knew there was something a little off with USO correlation with the actual price. USL's 2014 peak to 2016 low is only -68%, more reflecting that of actual crude. USO is -76% When USO rose in 2009-2011, it didn't rise as much as USL, due to contango. Only problem is USL is nowhere near as liquid, but that shouldn't matter for my small position size....
Thanks for the response and good luck with all of it.
  • #1,052,145
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:05pm Jan 23, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Here's my FXCM chart. There's is definitely something wrong with what you are seeing. {image}
This is what I have
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #1,052,146
  • Jan 23, 2016 6:32pm Jan 23, 2016 6:32pm
EU looks neutral. But EURGBP looks like it wants to rocket. GBPUSD looks like it wants to crash to 1.35 or lower.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,052,147
  • Jan 23, 2016 6:36pm Jan 23, 2016 6:36pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
After doing more research, I will buy USL instead.
Be careful with those oil ETF's they don't always work as advertised.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ng-blowing-oil
  • #1,052,148
  • Jan 23, 2016 6:38pm Jan 23, 2016 6:38pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Wise words from the 3rd richest financial market investor (only 2bil behind Soros) in the world. I personally lost 60k+ before I started making money, I can relate to this Of course 60k back then was like half a mil. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eG0juv12iw
There are hundreds of financial market investors richer than Soros. There are 300 Rothschilds with an average wealth per each at $300B+. There are 200 Rockefellers with an average wealth of $50B+. Don't you know about the Satanic bloodlines?
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,052,149
  • Jan 23, 2016 6:41pm Jan 23, 2016 6:41pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} If it goes sub 20 I'm all in long, and probably with a few futures contracts ($3000 per $1 move in oil) No stop loss I'm not one of those doom and gloomers who expects oil to be unable to find a bid and be worthless. It's the #1 most used commodity on earth. Unless some new technology makes it useless, in which case I'll be out $50,000 (if it goes to 0) As far as I know, no commodity market has ever gone to 0. You could be right about $14 but it's just a bit ridiculous to me, yes i know it's a viable technical level, but inflation adjusted...
I'm looking for oil to go sub $20. USDCAD above 1.55.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,052,150
  • Jan 23, 2016 6:44pm Jan 23, 2016 6:44pm
Quoting pooyan2012
{quote} why not 150000% per year!!?
Cause with the leverage setting and backtest expected returns are 1500% per year. Max drawdown of 85%.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,052,151
  • Edited Jan 24, 2016 12:16am Jan 23, 2016 9:29pm | Edited Jan 24, 2016 12:16am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} They did sell some at $80 and $100. But there weren't enough buyers to fill ALL their orders at those levels. I'm talking about the biggest of traders. Sovereign wealth funds. Those who bought between $10 and $25 are selling remainder of their positions now at sub $40 and sub $30 (because sidelined traders are willing to fill their orders, speculating on a $50+ oil price in a few years)
Say they bought 15 years ago for 20 and sold now for 30, that's 150% return, that's 10% per year, is my maths right?
  • #1,052,152
  • Jan 24, 2016 12:17am Jan 24, 2016 12:17am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} Say they bought 15 years ago for 20 and sold now for 30, that's 150% return, that's 10% per year, is my maths right?
Your math is far from correct. It's a 50% return over that period. Annualized rate is a lot lower.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,052,153
  • Jan 24, 2016 1:20am Jan 24, 2016 1:20am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} Your math is far from correct. It's a 50% return over that period. Annualized rate is a lot lower.
Yer that's what I thought which makes me wonder who in their right mind would buy oil with such piddly returns over bonds?

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} They did sell some at $80 and $100. But there weren't enough buyers to fill ALL their orders at those levels. I'm talking about the biggest of traders. Sovereign wealth funds. Those who bought between $10 and $25 are selling remainder of their positions now at sub $40 and sub $30 (because sidelined traders are willing to fill their orders, speculating on a $50+ oil price in a few years)
I'm not saying don't buy oil at current levels or that it's going to 0, I'm just questioning the reasoning.
  • #1,052,154
  • Jan 24, 2016 1:32am Jan 24, 2016 1:32am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
{quote} Yer that's what I thought which makes me wonder who in their right mind would buy oil with such piddly returns over bonds? {quote} I'm not saying don't buy oil at current levels or that it's going to 0, I'm just questioning the reasoning.
I think it can go to $20.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,052,155
  • Jan 24, 2016 9:24am Jan 24, 2016 9:24am
Well, almost there
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  • #1,052,156
  • Jan 24, 2016 9:38am Jan 24, 2016 9:38am
Quoting KillerWhale
Well, almost there {image}
He's not on the job anymore, he's just writing a book about his fantastic presidency, which of course will make him multi millions.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,052,157
  • Jan 24, 2016 9:50am Jan 24, 2016 9:50am
In my opinion all markets have bottomed. Oil has bottomed. We will see big rallies soon -- time to develop strategies to be adding to winners.
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} If it goes sub 20 I'm all in long, and probably with a few futures contracts ($3000 per $1 move in oil) No stop loss I'm not one of those doom and gloomers who expects oil to be unable to find a bid and be worthless. It's the #1 most used commodity on earth. Unless some new technology makes it useless, in which case I'll be out $50,000 (if it goes to 0) As far as I know, no commodity market has ever gone to 0. You could be right about $14 but it's just a bit ridiculous to me, yes i know it's a viable technical level, but inflation adjusted...
  • #1,052,158
  • Jan 24, 2016 9:59am Jan 24, 2016 9:59am
Quoting KillerWhale
Well, almost there
Hi KillerWhale! I found some pics in Internet, based on them, what do you think will be next?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,052,159
  • Jan 24, 2016 10:25am Jan 24, 2016 10:25am
Quoting Maks
{quote} Hi KillerWhale! I found some pics in Internet, based on them, what do you think will be next? {image} {image}
You should shift your chart to the left, it's hard to see what happened in the last bar.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,052,160
  • Jan 24, 2016 10:28am Jan 24, 2016 10:28am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} You should shift your chart to the left, it's hard to see what happened in the last bar.
Always (my way) keep an inch, or 2.5 cm between your last bar and the end of the chart.

Gives a lot more clear vision.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
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