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  • #1,052,101
  • Edited 2:15am Jan 23, 2016 1:58am | Edited 2:15am
The market is composed of 90 % consolidation, sideways slower moves, where theres a higher probability of smaller profits. 10 % is composed of faster unpredictable moves which may be multiple 100 pips, like 3rd December. Why bother trying to get 100's of pips per trade with all the risk of being in a trade for ages? instead of spending most of the time seeking big pips, try seeking a smaller part of the move.. Then waiting for another setup or look at another pair.. Its always better to buy when the price has fallen, and sell when the price has risen
  • #1,052,102
  • Jan 23, 2016 2:05am Jan 23, 2016 2:05am
next week i will be looking for evidence of an up move in eurousd at the level. see how many times the price has risen in this area.. i certainly will not sell the current move, as i did this already at the first sign of the down move around midday gmt on 20th.. I took modest profits ..
  • #1,052,103
  • Jan 23, 2016 3:25am Jan 23, 2016 3:25am
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} I renamed it to 1500%+ a year. I changed the leverage settings a ton of times from when I started. Initially I was looking for 500% a year. Now I am looking for 1500%+ a year.
why not 150000% per year!!?
  • #1,052,104
  • Jan 23, 2016 3:30am Jan 23, 2016 3:30am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Finally got off my ass and put together a decent trading desk. AUDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD always just a glance away now (with 3 time frames) What's everyone else working with? {image}
beautiful
  • #1,052,105
  • Jan 23, 2016 3:43am Jan 23, 2016 3:43am
WTF
i think he wrote a web bot to ignore everyone in FF!
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  • #1,052,106
  • Edited 6:00am Jan 23, 2016 5:05am | Edited 6:00am
I'm putting half of my Roth IRA into USO (unleveraged oil ETF, the decay is only 0.66% a year), and I'm never selling it for a loss.

The other half is in SPX shorts from 2055.

Long WTI and short equities seems to be the best long term play I can think of, nothing else comes close.

People mention the "oversupply", what they don't realize is, oil demand as a PERCENTAGE of total supply is the highest it's ever been.

Don't listen to those telling you that oversupply is what is causing the drop. It's not. It's speculative longs from 15 years ago (who bought at $20 area) finally unwinding the remainder of those longs.


Even if oil goes to $16 (unlikely) it's only a 25% drawdown for my position, but it will eventually rally FAR above $32.
I'm with Kyle Bass on the oil rebound being massive.

Of course I also will be buying CAD, Rubles, and WTI Futures on dips, and try and let them run, but these I will try to time entry properly for high leverage and tight stop loss (risk reward 20:1 type of trades)


Who's selling sub $30? Obviously, those who bought sub $30. They want their cash profits from the longs they initiated 15 years ago. Yes, they took as much of the profit as they could at the highest levels they could. HOWEVER, the bulk of the liquidity is sub $30. They couldn't sell EVERYTHING at high prices, but they certainly can sell a lot at $30. If they bought at $20, it's still a 50% profit. Yes, they sold some at $100+, but most of it has been sold at sub $40.

Those buying now are new speculative buyers for the next 3-5 years (or more). Those who bought 15 years ago may keep some of their positions, but they ARE NOT initiating new ones. That's just how liquidity works. They will take the cash and begin speculation in other markets (such as Aussie longs, VERY CLOSE to it's major low (if not there already). They will be the fresh spec longs providing liquidity to the spec longs from 2009 who bought at 60-65 cents (Aussie)

Does anyone understand what I am saying? Engage in discussion with me if you'd like.

Inflation adjusted we have basically already touched the $20 level.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,107
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:37am Jan 23, 2016 5:37am
Wise words from the 3rd richest financial market investor (only 2bil behind Soros) in the world.

I personally lost 60k+ before I started making money, I can relate to this

Of course 60k back then was like half a mil.

Inserted Video
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,108
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:55am Jan 23, 2016 5:55am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Wise words from the 3rd richest financial market investor (only 2bil behind Soros) in the world. I personally lost 60k+ before I started making money, I can relate to this Of course 60k back then was like half a mil. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eG0juv12iw
Rags the millionaire you are following lost 86k this week. Ppl have so much money.then can still trade
  • #1,052,109
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:57am Jan 23, 2016 5:57am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I'm putting half of my Roth IRA into USO (unleveraged oil ETF, the decay is only 0.66% a year), and I'm never selling it for a loss. The other half is in SPX shorts. Long WTI and short equities seems to be the best long term play I can think of, nothing else comes close. People mention the "oversupply", what they don't realize is, oil demand as a PERCENTAGE of total supply is the highest it's ever been. Don't listen to those telling you that oversupply is what is causing the drop. It's not. It's speculative longs from 15 years ago (who...
Dead cat bounce for oil. May jump to 35 and then we fall again. Oil has made a short term bottom. I dont trade oil. So dont have the precise levels
  • #1,052,110
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:59am Jan 23, 2016 5:59am
Quoting pooyan2012
WTF i think he wrote a web bot to ignore everyone in FF! {image}
I am on his prestigious list as well
  • #1,052,111
  • Jan 23, 2016 5:59am Jan 23, 2016 5:59am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I'm putting half of my Roth IRA into USO (unleveraged oil ETF, the decay is only 0.66% a year), and I'm never selling it for a loss. The other half is in SPX shorts. Long WTI and short equities seems to be the best long term play I can think of, nothing else comes close. People mention the "oversupply", what they don't realize is, oil demand as a PERCENTAGE of total supply is the highest it's ever been. Don't listen to those telling you that oversupply is what is causing the drop. It's not. It's speculative longs from 15 years ago (who bought at...
Last week, I had been thinking of stacking oil up, personally feel this year, it may bounce. I am looking at 18 to 23 bucks entry, which i felt its all worth for holding for some years. Loss target at $10(If it really drop there) and profit between $45 to $60.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #1,052,112
  • Jan 23, 2016 7:35am Jan 23, 2016 7:35am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} Rags the millionaire you are following lost 86k this week. Ppl have so much money.then can still trade
Rahul? Why do you think I care about him? Where did you get that in your head? I have that crazy mofo on ignore.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,113
  • Jan 23, 2016 7:36am Jan 23, 2016 7:36am
If anyone wants to LOL. This is the funniest thing I've seen in a while.

LOL when he's lifting weights making those noises, I'm dying.

Inserted Video
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,114
  • Jan 23, 2016 7:37am Jan 23, 2016 7:37am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} Dead cat bounce for oil. May jump to 35 and then we fall again. Oil has made a short term bottom. I dont trade oil. So dont have the precise levels
I don't really care if it falls again. I'm kinda hoping it does. But in case it doesn't, I'm getting in for the long term.

I agree with 35 maybe 37 as a short term target.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,115
  • Jan 23, 2016 7:40am Jan 23, 2016 7:40am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Last week, I had been thinking of stacking oil up, personally feel this year, it may bounce. I am looking at 18 to 23 bucks entry, which i felt its all worth for holding for some years. Loss target at $10(If it really drop there) and profit between $45 to $60.
That would be a good entry, but if you don't get it that would suck, because the upside potential is ridiculous, and the downside is limited.

And even if it does go more down, that just gives an even less riskier place to add to your position (with more potential for upside)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,116
  • Jan 23, 2016 7:43am Jan 23, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} That would be a good entry, but if you don't get it that would suck, because the upside potential is ridiculous, and the downside is limited. And even if it does go more down, that just gives an even less riskier place to add to your position (with more potential for upside)
we can only buy futures here and its not possible to buy it and keep for years..you have to repeat the action every months
money ain't shit,i'm the shit..
  • #1,052,117
  • Jan 23, 2016 8:02am Jan 23, 2016 8:02am
Quoting roadtogo
{quote} we can only buy futures here and its not possible to buy it and keep for years..you have to repeat the action every months
you can still keep it for years, yes im aware how futures work
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,052,118
  • Jan 23, 2016 8:04am Jan 23, 2016 8:04am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} It's a strong signal but need confirmation, it seems likely we will at least test half way down that wick in February, and hopefully find a bottom in that range (81.00-80.50ish)... assuming we close January somewhere around 83.00 Similar to what happened in September after that large August monthly wick (except September tested near the major low of August)
I agree with at 100%. I'm watching the UC to do the same thing, come back up and revisit some of that wick. If you build your position in the lower range and hang on to it for three or four months that could be a really strong trade. You obviously need to keep an eye on the medium term forecasting for shifts in the fundamentals - not telling you anything you don't know - but where it sits right now, there could definitely be some overshoot built in to current pricing. If the "bandwagon" has gotten it wrong they'll all adjust at the same time - the wind in your sails...
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #1,052,119
  • Jan 23, 2016 8:28am Jan 23, 2016 8:28am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I'm putting half of my Roth IRA into USO (unleveraged oil ETF, the decay is only 0.66% a year), and I'm never selling it for a loss. The other half is in SPX shorts from 2055. Long WTI and short equities seems to be the best long term play I can think of, nothing else comes close. People mention the "oversupply", what they don't realize is, oil demand as a PERCENTAGE of total supply is the highest it's ever been. Don't listen to those telling you that oversupply is what is causing the drop. It's not. It's speculative longs from 15 years...
Why would someone who bought oil supposedly 15 years ago sell it now? Why not sell at record highs? And then buy some more now?
  • #1,052,120
  • Jan 23, 2016 8:37am Jan 23, 2016 8:37am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I'm putting half of my Roth IRA into USO (unleveraged oil ETF, the decay is only 0.66% a year)l. {image}
I was thinking about this too but I'm pretty new to all of it. I read about USO and etfs like it being a tough way to ride oil prices up due to rollover (in contango environment) eating up any upside. Is this the .66 decay you mentioned? I was thinking to buy and hold cvx and xom instead but curious to know your thoughts on that.
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