Disliked{quote} Hi, It is good that your read this thread. Remember to take notes as your read. Post#1 is important, and also two important posts #261 and #647. As you read, look at charts and reference to these 2 important posts. Make screenshot of your chart and write notes based on your understanding of these 2 posts. Next, a simple thing to do is: Scroll back to all your charts starting from 2012...Ignored
I had a script lying around to test some statistics on HA/APB candles and dug it up. So the following has nothing to do with a TMS signal but only the statistics of APB/HA candles. In this post it will be HA candles.
Couple of observations:
- a rolling window moving average of HA candle size is closely related to the volatility of the pair.
- on average we can expect 4.2 HA candles per run. Because the distribution of candles per run is strictly positive and skewed the average is higher than the median. The median in our case is 3 HA candles per run.
- Roughly speaking across pairs we know that about 22% of all runs will have only 1 HA candle.
- about 20% of all runs will have 2 HA candles of same colour
- 3 candles : 14%
- 4 candles : 10%
- only 9% of all unique HA candle runs goes for longer than 10 consecutives (roughly)
- only 1% of all unique HA candle runs goes for longer than 19 consecutives (roughly)
I would like to say something like "given that the APB colour has changed (i.e. APB #1 closed) there is a X% chance that it continues in this direction". Unfortunatly, I am not entirely sure about these conditional probabilities and how they are calculated. I think the Cumulative Inverse gives a rough idea however. If this is indeed true than it is something like this:
Given APB #1 closes, there is a 78% chance that the APB continues
Given APB #2 closes, there is a 59% chance that the APB continues
Given APB #3 closes, there is a 46% chance that the APB continues
Given APB #4 closes, there is a 35% chance that the APB continues.
This last is all under consideration. If anyone wants to have a look with me and discuss, I have included the Summary statistics. If you have any questions, let me know!
Best,
Attached File(s)
APB 4H Overview.xlsx
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