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  • #64,761
  • Jan 19, 2016 5:35am Jan 19, 2016 5:35am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, It is good that your read this thread. Remember to take notes as your read. Post#1 is important, and also two important posts #261 and #647. As you read, look at charts and reference to these 2 important posts. Make screenshot of your chart and write notes based on your understanding of these 2 posts. Next, a simple thing to do is: Scroll back to all your charts starting from 2012...
Regarding the No. of APB candles:

I had a script lying around to test some statistics on HA/APB candles and dug it up. So the following has nothing to do with a TMS signal but only the statistics of APB/HA candles. In this post it will be HA candles.

Couple of observations:
- a rolling window moving average of HA candle size is closely related to the volatility of the pair.
- on average we can expect 4.2 HA candles per run. Because the distribution of candles per run is strictly positive and skewed the average is higher than the median. The median in our case is 3 HA candles per run.
- Roughly speaking across pairs we know that about 22% of all runs will have only 1 HA candle.
- about 20% of all runs will have 2 HA candles of same colour
- 3 candles : 14%
- 4 candles : 10%
- only 9% of all unique HA candle runs goes for longer than 10 consecutives (roughly)
- only 1% of all unique HA candle runs goes for longer than 19 consecutives (roughly)

I would like to say something like "given that the APB colour has changed (i.e. APB #1 closed) there is a X% chance that it continues in this direction". Unfortunatly, I am not entirely sure about these conditional probabilities and how they are calculated. I think the Cumulative Inverse gives a rough idea however. If this is indeed true than it is something like this:

Given APB #1 closes, there is a 78% chance that the APB continues
Given APB #2 closes, there is a 59% chance that the APB continues
Given APB #3 closes, there is a 46% chance that the APB continues
Given APB #4 closes, there is a 35% chance that the APB continues.

This last is all under consideration. If anyone wants to have a look with me and discuss, I have included the Summary statistics. If you have any questions, let me know!

Best,
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx APB 4H Overview.xlsx   19 KB | 385 downloads
  • #64,762
  • Jan 19, 2016 5:43am Jan 19, 2016 5:43am
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} Regarding the No. of APB candles: I had a script lying around to test some statistics on HA/APB candles and dug it up. So the following has nothing to do with a TMS signal but only the statistics of APB/HA candles. In this post it will be HA candles. Couple of observations: - a rolling window moving average of HA candle size is closely related to the volatility of the pair. - on average we can expect 4.2 HA candles per run. Because the distribution of candles per run is strictly positive and skewed the average is higher than the median....
Wow! You are really committed to TMS and you are doing your homework. Good job, buddy!
  • #64,763
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:19am Jan 19, 2016 6:19am
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} Regarding the No. of APB candles: I had a script lying around to test some statistics on HA/APB candles and dug it up. So the following has nothing to do with a TMS signal but only the statistics of APB/HA candles. In this post it will be HA candles. Couple of observations: - a rolling window moving average of HA candle size is closely related to the volatility of the pair. - on averacomunityge we can expect 4.2 HA candles per run. Because the distribution of candles per run is strictly positive and skewed the average is higher than the...
excellent stuff, excellent research and community here in TMS.
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #64,764
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:24am Jan 19, 2016 6:24am
Quoting Dimi.A
{quote} Beautiful trade bro. Man you're a seasoned TMS trader now! Here's a quote from Big E that I'll always be thankful for because it really helped shape the way I trade today: Stop trading lower time frames if you really want to make money. When I finally got sick and tired of making $1 a pip I switched to 4hr charts and trading full lots. I've spent a lot of money and thousands of hours studying and it was about time I got paid for it... and I do using our method. Nothing could be further from the truth! Even though the TMS does work in lower...
Hi Dimi

On your last trade of this chart both TDI and Stoch crossed downwards, and 2 red candles are seen. Out of curiousity, why you stayed in that long-trade? Big E closed after TDI crossing, as far as I know.
  • #64,765
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:25am Jan 19, 2016 6:25am
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} Regarding the No. of APB candles: I had a script lying around to test some statistics on HA/APB candles and dug it up. So the following has nothing to do with a TMS signal but only the statistics of APB/HA candles. In this post it will be HA candles. Couple of observations: - a rolling window moving average of HA candle size is closely related to the volatility of the pair. - on average we can expect 4.2 HA candles per run. Because the distribution of candles per run is strictly positive and skewed the average is higher than the median....

.. you got my attention , not easy to get it !
You really did your homework ..thanks for sharing it !
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #64,766
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:25am Jan 19, 2016 6:25am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} that 2nd setup candle was a very good example of strong buying support when that price bar close as a BUOB. If you look at the price close and the High, that Japanese candle is almost flat end close. If you looked at the lower TF when the China data release, the first strike was down but that did not continue down but it consolidated with H1 IB , then reverse to close that H4 as BUOB. Both the TDI and Stoch confirm these on H4.
Thank you Emmanuel I have a lot to learn
  • #64,767
  • Jan 19, 2016 7:04am Jan 19, 2016 7:04am
Thanks Emmanuel.
  • #64,768
  • Jan 19, 2016 7:56am Jan 19, 2016 7:56am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Folks, Here is my trading results for Weeks 41 and 42 trading TMS Weekly and Daily charts using Multiple Entries and Multiple Exits ME/ME money management strategy. Do not be afraid to trade the Weekly chart timeframe. It is the most profitable and a lot less stress when you can trade with ME/ME using small %risk of your trading capital. Total number of trades: 269 Total number of pips : 17,222 pips Average pips per win trade: 64 pips Average $ per win trade : $81.35 {image} Have a Good Trading week ahead.

Hi Em,
I am just going through your thread and found it pretty useful.I was used to trade with lot of indicators but I met one of experienced traders here on FF who guided me to get rid of all indicators and asked me to use only price action or naked chart.

I also agree with him that all indicators are legging indicators and price moves them not the indicators.

but your strategy also looks great, so I decided to do some testing.

Here in your above post quoted ,you talking about daily and weekly time frames..

My question is that how you make entry on weekly trades and how many time frames you see back and forth and also what is you time frame for entry?
also how you will take a trade in the middle of week like WED,THU, etc just on weekly time frame?
  • #64,769
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:45am Jan 19, 2016 8:45am
I took long because : 1)daily bias was bullish
2)BRN
3)50 MA
4)support became resistance
5)breakin wrb also MC
what was wrong with my intry?please comment!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,770
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:56am Jan 19, 2016 8:56am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Another H4 example: AUDUSD H4 GMT0640 The current H4 candle is still active and will close in 3 hours. Apply what you know by these two very important posts: Post#261 and Post#647, and decide if you can enter buy now. {image}
Trying to understand the system and answering the question.
I think in this situation we can buy.
Why:
The TDI is Up in the 12-2 (Watch face), Stoch is up and it is the second bar.
Am I Right?

About the highlighted question, it wasnt a valid candle, because I didnt close above the EMEA. It is right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Enter Signature
  • #64,771
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:59am Jan 19, 2016 8:59am
Quoting secondpath
I took long because : 1)daily bias was bullish 2)BRN 3)50 MA 4)support became resistance 5)breakin wrb also MC what was wrong with my intry?please comment! {image}
You took a trade based on 5 reason. I think that is enough. There was nothing wrong in my view. It is market and some time we take loss on a good entry.
Sad i'm not trying to understand PA
  • #64,772
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:19am Jan 19, 2016 10:19am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, First, Cross-out 'X' means Not Good or No Go. Check-mark '√' means Good, or Good to Go. That chart template is basic 5-Method with the APB, TDI set to default and 5EMA set to Close Price, Shift +3 (not 10EMA) There is a different in how the 5EMA use different from the 10EMA. In the 5-Method, the 5EMA is to see the general direction. PA above the 5EMA is to Buy PA below the 5EMA is to Sell The 10EMA is use as dynamic support or resistance. We see this same 10EMA on H4, D1 and W1 charts. On the H4 chart, the 50EMA is equivalent to...
Hi Emm - thanks for the continued insight and thought provoking.
In this post you reference 5ema shift +3. I thought the basic methods adopts a shift +2. Is the +3 preferred for 4H TF?
  • #64,773
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:25am Jan 19, 2016 10:25am
EA _ H1 trade at NYO +1 hour long for 100 piper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #64,774
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:39am Jan 19, 2016 10:39am
COuld someone be kind to help me out here,
I was wondering what went wrong on this trade,
and i couldn't just get it, probably i am not seeing something rightly,

THanks in advance

-53 pips loss in NZDUSD Sell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 47 KB
Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going
  • #64,775
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:10am Jan 19, 2016 11:10am
USDCAD 19 Jan H4 GMT1705

Looking good if this H4 candlle close above 5EMA, wait....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 19 Jan H4 GMT1705.png Size: 33 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #64,776
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:14am Jan 19, 2016 11:14am
Quoting MaxZen
{quote} Hi Emm - thanks for the continued insight and thought provoking. In this post you reference 5ema shift +3. I thought the basic methods adopts a shift +2. Is the +3 preferred for 4H TF?

it has been shift+3 for long time.
I know some members posted shift+2.
but that will not make a lot of difference when we look at PA.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #64,777
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:19am Jan 19, 2016 11:19am
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDCAD 19 Jan H4 GMT1705 Looking good if this H4 candlle close above 5EMA, wait.... {image}
Thanks for the clarification
  • #64,778
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:30am Jan 19, 2016 11:30am
Quoting Katfx
{quote} Trying to understand the system and answering the question. I think in this situation we can buy. Why: The TDI is Up in the 12-2 (Watch face), Stoch is up and it is the second bar. Am I Right? About the highlighted question, it wasnt a valid candle, because I didnt close above the EMEA. It is right? {image}

here, same chart with added comments.

when we trade with price action, we must look at the price bar Open, High, Low and Close.

for the APB, we look at the colour, the body size and upper / lower wicks.

we must be clear what is a setup candle...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 19 Jan H4 GMT0640.png Size: 63 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #64,779
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:38am Jan 19, 2016 11:38am
Quoting efestus
COuld someone be kind to help me out here, I was wondering what went wrong on this trade, and i couldn't just get it, probably i am not seeing something rightly, THanks in advance -53 pips loss in NZDUSD Sell {image}

nothing wrong as you had your SL to protect your capital.

but when you trade H1, why you did not close it within the same market session or same day?

anyway, the weekly still look bearish, so selling is preferred. the SL would be above last week' high.

but when you look at D1 chart, last Friday close was sign of price pulling back ahead of the China GDP data.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #64,780
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:49am Jan 19, 2016 11:49am
Quoting secondpath
I took long because : 1)daily bias was bullish 2)BRN 3)50 MA 4)support became resistance 5)breakin wrb also MC what was wrong with my intry?please comment! {image}

nothing wrong with your entry.

but what is your exit strategy when you trade H1? knowing that there is big red UK news which creates market volality.

D1 looks good to buy, but knowing where to place SL is important with the news.
Using 2-day look back usually will work out as the market direction is clear.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP D1 chart 2CBL.png Size: 31 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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