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  • #1,046,521
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:13am Dec 22, 2015 10:13am
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} little birdie's can just see up to 300-400 pips movement..they trade with huge leverage by keeping 300-400 pips for margin call! I'm just saying be alert..serious volatility is ahead.. 300-400 pips for margin call is not enough from here...

Thanks
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,522
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:14am Dec 22, 2015 10:14am
Quoting Schmidt
{quote} Are you calling me a little Birdie?

Go ahead, spill it, please or disgorge it or whatever it is you people do.

Thanks
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,523
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:19am Dec 22, 2015 10:19am
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} little birdie's can just see up to 300-400 pips movement..they trade with huge leverage by keeping 300-400 pips for margin call! I'm just saying be alert..serious volatility is ahead.. 300-400 pips for margin call is not enough from here...
Thanks, didn't know what a Birdie is. Been trading Stocks for about 20 years and Forex for about 10 years.

Just because I recently signed up here, does not mean I'm new to trading.
  • #1,046,524
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:22am Dec 22, 2015 10:22am
Quoting Schmidt
{quote} Thanks, didn't know what a Birdie is. Been trading Stocks for about 20 years and Forex for about 10 years. Just because I recently signed up here, does not mean I'm new to trading.

Sorry, thought you was a troll, Welcome to Forex Factory. Viel Glück!
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,525
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:23am Dec 22, 2015 10:23am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Infinitus posted info in his thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post8199001) and I posted charts in the Useless thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post8239931, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8242670) at the end of last April when it was being claimed that' there will be no other fundamental force, macro numbers or else that will prime over a CB about to hike' showing that that a rise in rates (or an expectation of them) does not...

In response to 'Trouble with fundie trading is that there's always something you haven't considered or have no good way to exactly put your finger on'

Fundamentals are mostly complete nonsense Yes.. news does move the market.but the numbers are almost completely irrelevant as they are cooked beyond anyone's wildest dreams. It's how the PEOPLE react to the number, or mores specifically, how people respond to what other people are doing. The only people that matter in terms of Size and Volume are Hedge funds and Proprietary trading shops. Over 85% of the market's entire volume is now institutional or HFT, which makes reading order flow even more of a necessity now even though the concepts of order flow have been around forever, 80 years before 'candlesticks'. That's right.... they make up virtually ALL the volume in the market and you absolutely HAVE to know where and WHY the 'smart' money is doing business. Now, I'm going to give you an inside glance into how you can know EXACTLY where big institutions are. It's called order flow, or order-flow sequencing. I still can't believe how many of you trade off of charts. Charts show you what has already happened, and where does the information for your charts derive itself? From the Order book. EVERY SINGLE INDICATOR, candlestick, everything you see on a chart is derived from the order-book/ Depth of Market where you can actually READ where big orders are coming in. When I became an institutional trader I wasn't even allowed to look at a chart because the fastest way to become profitable is by reading Order-flow. Now, seeing as how FX is done in dark-pools and doesn't record volume (they commit far too much fraud for volume to be recorded and the big firms are still fined almost EVERY day for manipulating the FX Libor rates, etc). I would HIGHLY recommend looking at the Futures currencies and reading the volume and order flow for the EUR/USD GBP/USD as it's the best you can do for Forex if you actually want to understand how the game is played. Another thing Forex traders could do is look into Market Profile, and specifically TPO's. Although market profile is made for futures and records volume, the TPO's can be used in all the Forex markets and it works surprisingly well Here is a tool for eSignal that records the TPO's very well on any FX pair

http://www.esignal.com/partners/add-...hing-tool.aspx

Furthermore, here's a screenshot of what I look at everyday instead of charts[
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JigsawDepthOfMarket.png Size: 202 KB


. Even you retail traders have no excuse, as I'm using Jigsaw (400$ for LIFE), while before using Jigsaw I, like most big firm users all use TT_Xtrader, this includes JP Morgan and Goldmans btw, and had my data fee and Xtrader fee paid for me at over 2k a month. Jigsaw is so much better that I made the switch, and its even on a retail platform. Things are changing as technology improves. Retail traders can now see what only the big boys used to be able to see: Order Flow/ Order Flow sequencing. It completely changes the game, and levels the playing field so I highly suggest learning how to read order flow as its how every real professional in the world trades. Take a look for yourself, learn to read the tape, not what has already transpired.

http://www.jigsawtrading.com/learn-t...lysis-lessons/
  • #1,046,526
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:26am Dec 22, 2015 10:26am
The 10.5% crash in existing home sales is the worst November drop ever. Against expectations of a mere 0.2% drop, this is the largest miss in history asnd tumbles SAAR sales to the weakest since March 2014.

The smart money is now invested in Eurosone.
  • #1,046,527
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:34am Dec 22, 2015 10:34am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You ask Max - he is in BoE But don't say I tell you this
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #1,046,528
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:39am Dec 22, 2015 10:39am
Quoting Schmidt
{quote} Thanks, didn't know what a Birdie is. Been trading Stocks for about 20 years and Forex for about 10 years. Just because I recently signed up here, does not mean I'm new to trading.
I've started trading since this afternoon , but signed up earlier and everyone think I don't know sh!t ... which is true ... !
  • #1,046,529
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:41am Dec 22, 2015 10:41am
Quoting disker23
{quote} In response to 'Trouble with fundie trading is that there's always something you haven't considered or have no good way to exactly put your finger on' Fundamentals are mostly complete nonsense Yes.. news does move the market.but the numbers are almost completely irrelevant as they are cooked beyond anyone's wildest dreams. It's how the PEOPLE react to the number, or mores specifically, how people respond to what other people are doing. The only people that matter in terms of Size and Volume are Hedge funds and Proprietary trading shops....

, so you don't look at charts at all? I know Traders who don't look at the Charts for entering or exiting a Trade, but they still look at Charts to get an idea of the Market Direction.
  • #1,046,530
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:41am Dec 22, 2015 10:41am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} I've started trading since this afternoon , but signed up earlier and everyone think I don't know sh!t ... which is true ... !
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,531
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:42am Dec 22, 2015 10:42am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} You did - here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post8199044. Maybe not 'no correlation', but the evidence does certainly not show one strong enough or reliable enough that we can confidently proclaim that when interest rates go up the currency gets stronger and nothing can stand in the way of that.
Here's what happened to the trade weighted value of USD the last 5 FED rate rises.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar-rates.png Size: 353 KB
  • #1,046,532
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:59am Dec 22, 2015 10:59am
Quoting Luther
{quote} Here's what happened to the trade weighted value of USD the last 5 FED rate rises. {image}
That look's like a pretty strong correlation. But unless I'm reading that wrong it looks like every time there was a rate rise the trade
weighted dollar fell over the next few months instead of going up. Is that correct or am I reading it wrong?
  • #1,046,533
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:01am Dec 22, 2015 11:01am
Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Inserted Video
  • #1,046,534
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:01am Dec 22, 2015 11:01am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} That look's like a pretty strong correlation. But unless I'm reading that wrong it looks like every time there was a rate rise the trade weighted dollar fell over the next few months instead of going up. Is that correct
Yes. The average is around 10% drop over the first 3 months following the first hike.
  • #1,046,535
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:06am Dec 22, 2015 11:06am
Quoting Luther
{quote} Yes. The average is around 10% drop over the first 3 months following the first hike.
So that would seem to directly contradict what the fundamentalists say should happen. Do you have any thoughts on why that happens?
(BTW thanks for posting that chart. It's amazing).
  • #1,046,536
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:11am Dec 22, 2015 11:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 40 KB
joine me mql5.........
  • #1,046,537
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:23am Dec 22, 2015 11:23am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} You did - here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post8199044. Maybe not 'no correlation', but the evidence does certainly not show one strong enough or reliable enough that we can confidently proclaim that when interest rates go up the currency gets stronger and nothing can stand in the way of that.

Ups, yes, you are right: should chose my words better.

Should have read something like this:

there is no correlation all of the time

or:

do not make a "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" failure in thinking, that the rate will set the direction of the currency


So far, as I do see it, no one was ever able to show convincingly the link, why rates and currency sometimes move in sync, and other times not.


So the question is still unanswered:

Is there a correlation at all, or is it simply coincidence?


So far I go with coincidence.



BTW: many thanks to the link of my posting. I searched in the wrong thread LOL


Also last week I wrote something about the "correlation" of Gold and FED funds rate:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...on#post8652103
  • #1,046,538
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:41am Dec 22, 2015 11:41am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.gif Size: 218 KB
  • #1,046,539
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:43am Dec 22, 2015 11:43am
Quoting disker23
{quote} In response to 'Trouble with fundie trading is that there's always something you haven't considered or have no good way to exactly put your finger on' Fundamentals are mostly complete nonsense Yes.. news does move the market.but the numbers are almost completely irrelevant as they are cooked beyond anyone's wildest dreams. It's how the PEOPLE react to the number, or mores specifically, how people respond to what other people are doing. The only people that matter in terms of Size and Volume are Hedge funds and Proprietary trading shops....

Hi Disker,

I agree on the things you said about who is moving the market.

People who have followed me over the course of the last 2 years or so have noticed, that I do work a lot with trading volume (real volume, option volume, tick volume etc.).

But after all this time with using volume my impression is as follows (it is not my end-verdict, yet):

a) volume profiles and such alike may be most helpful in ranging markets, but do suck in strong trending markets

b) sometimes price gets stopped by the POC, othertimes it is the low volume zones (the tails of the distribution) where price may stop. So far I found no good statistical evidence to say: this is a good time that price will stop at the POC, or to predict, that price will run to the tail of the distribution.



I want to say: think twice about buying this market flow, order flow, market profile etc. stuff. It may not be worth the price in the end.


In the end: the very big fishes, which are able to set the direction of market, do not care much about order flow. They may care more about VWAP if at all
  • #1,046,540
  • Dec 22, 2015 11:46am Dec 22, 2015 11:46am
Quoting MarianneOslo
The 10.5% crash in existing home sales is the worst November drop ever. Against expectations of a mere 0.2% drop, this is the largest miss in history asnd tumbles SAAR sales to the weakest since March 2014. The smart money is now invested in Eurosone.


Careful with the words:

when you refer to smart money, people may think, that you are talking about the large traders reporting in the COT report. They are still heavily short the Single Currency and long the USD
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