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  • #138,221
  • Dec 17, 2015 4:49am Dec 17, 2015 4:49am
Simple ride in the Euro. Clearing first short term target in the Euro 1.084x and session pretty much over. NY will take control for the rest of the year. All eyes in the initial real reaction in NY in the upcoming sessions especially today when they wake up with hikes already in place.

Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} quarters are very underated, both weekly and monthly, I have used them for ages...its helps to filter out the hits by considering the last few legs, and the relastionship to the highs and lows...but even blind hits have a decent chance of giving you at least a short term bounce... {image}
... Nice to see you posting PTL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,222
  • Dec 17, 2015 4:49am Dec 17, 2015 4:49am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} quarters are very underated, both weekly and monthly, I have used them for ages...its helps to filter out the hits by considering the last few legs, and the relastionship to the highs and lows...but even blind hits have a decent chance of giving you at least a short term bounce... {image}
I am using them for 3 years.
I am recommending adding gator's famous mofu ratios around those levels to see some buffer zones.
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  • #138,223
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:13am Dec 17, 2015 5:13am
Quoting sisse
Simple ride in the Euro. Clearing first short term target in the Euro 1.084x and session pretty much over. NY will take control for the rest of the year. All eyes in the initial real reaction in NY in the upcoming sessions especially today when they wake up with hikes already in place. {quote} ... Nice to see you posting PTL ... sisse

sissie, good to see you still here mate..meant to catch up with you my friend, boy keeps me busy however, will drop you a PM later....hope all is well
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #138,224
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:15am Dec 17, 2015 5:15am
Quoting sisse
Simple ride in the Euro. Clearing first short term target in the Euro 1.084x and session pretty much over. NY will take control for the rest of the year. All eyes in the initial real reaction in NY in the upcoming sessions especially today when they wake up with hikes already in place. {quote} ... Nice to see you posting PTL ... sisse
hi sisse,

for me .083xx is a good support now ....below .051xx - .046xx is a good support ...

what are your levels to play .... thankx for all the valuable posts ..........
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,225
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:27am Dec 17, 2015 5:27am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} sissie, good to see you still here mate..meant to catch up with you my friend, boy keeps me busy however, will drop you a PM later....hope all is well
You're back for good mate, or just satisfying old addiction? How's your boy doing?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #138,226
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:31am Dec 17, 2015 5:31am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} You're back for good mate, or just satisfying old addiction? How's your boy doing?

he is good, getting bigger by the day....I'm always back man...you can never leave this place, kinda like hotel california I guess...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #138,227
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:37am Dec 17, 2015 5:37am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} he is good, getting bigger by the day....I'm always back man...you can never leave this place, kinda like hotel california I guess...
Good to hear ... lol yeah, I think so ... as long as you do not bust up, you will always come back.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #138,228
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:41am Dec 17, 2015 5:41am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} I am using them for 3 years. I am recommending adding gator's famous mofu ratios around those levels to see some buffer zones. {image}

sure, you could use the UM/LM to reduce your risk...I like to look left sometimes and see if I can find tune the entry sometimes....in this case the Q help as support after the big push back through it, but then the bastards decided to take here down again...I looked at some shorter term PA near there to find a few levels that looked interesting...but its not always neccessy or possible...and it should be noted that the second level is nearly 20pips above the Q, but on a monthly level, that is acceptable in my view..alas these shorts dont look so stellar right now, but thems the breaks...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #138,229
  • Dec 17, 2015 5:53am Dec 17, 2015 5:53am
Quoting sisse
Second update after the key news. Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from STRONG SELL to SOFT SELL with mid term bottom on sight for Q1/Q2 2016. sisse
Sisse , hi , what are tech levels to watch on GOLD ?
  • #138,230
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:06am Dec 17, 2015 6:06am
Hello guys,

1. wanna join with: thank you everyone contributing to this thread. Its really amazing to share the ideas. And the biggest claps to Sisse for all he is sharing with us - concering actual markets and the more theoretical discussion, which are going on and are sooo much valuable!!!!!

2. Since we got a historical monetary policy move yesterday. I thought I would take some time to try to sum it (= the discussion here/some future projections) up for us - just for the sake of clarity.

--------------

Quoting sisse
Second update after the key news. Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from STRONG SELL to SOFT SELL with mid term bottom on sight for Q1/Q2 2016. sisse
Quoting sisse
--> Important third update after the key news and now the conference comments Changing Dollar MID TERM OUTLOOK from NEUTRAL to BUY. sisse
Quoting sisse
--> Fourth update after the news and conference.... Reconfirming mid term outlook in US equites from NEUTRAL to STRONG NEUTRAL ... sisse
Quoting sisse
...and we are reaching to the end of the line... Fifth update after YELLEN important comments on OIL... Changing mid term outlook in OIL from Sell to Cautious Sell with mid term floor on sight for next year (Q2/Q3). sisse
Quoting sisse
6th update ... Changing mid term outlook in EURO from SELL to STRONG SELL with momentum on sight on a break 1.073x for Q1 2016) sisse
Sisses updates:

GOLD: midterm outlook - from STRONG SELL to SOFT SELL (note: mid term bottom on sight for Q1/Q2 2016)
DOLLAR: midterm outlook - from NEUTRAL to BUY
US eqities: midterm outlook - STRONG NEUTRAL (note: reconfirmation)
OIL: midterm outlook - from SELL to CAUTIOUS SELL (note: mid term floor on sight for next year (Q2/Q3)
EURO: midterm outlook - from SELL to STRONG SELL (note: momentum on sight on a break 1.073x for Q1 2016)

Future focus on fundamentals:
EURO:

ECB out of business for some time, eyes on inflation (ECB back in play??) + other macros to see any change in the prevailing sluggish/stagnating economic growth, QE + NIRP in place ===="mid term STRONG SELL"


(personally: dont expect any good change in eurozone anytime soon - just too many problems: sovereign debt problem (Greece crisis is gonna come back soon), Brexit, immigration, terrorism, non-sufficient reforms, futher destabilization of EU institutions through nationalism/anti-EU parites (Hungary, Poland politics), Spanish elections. If you think about it - this is like a poisonous coctail. One wonders if the patient is gonna survive )

USD:

start of monetary normalization - 1st hike done, gradual cycle, data dependent FED; eyes on inflation (see: statement: "in light of the current shortfall of inglation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal") + other macro (emphasis on unemployment + wages = inflation producing mechanism) to support the case of hikes on ground of keeping/expanding the current pace of economic activity!
===="mid term BUY"

++ Consensus so far: most probable 4 hikes in 2016 - March, June, September, December

(My view: I would say the conference/statement seemed dovish on the first sight but the logic of gradual data dependent cycle has been here for long time and the way the hike was presented was just a diplomatical move to calm financial world and to get over it smoothly - so far seems succesfull. I would say nothing changes in the FED strategy - would not be suprised if the FED cycle was much hawkish/faster than market hinks it will be.)

Mid term outlook/swing as per today= RMT swing as a part of the "Obama dollar rally"

Chart 1: Whole mid term swing - starts after MARCH-OCTOBER 2015 corrective phase, 1st short term wave (=1st hike expectations) + short term correction (= ECB flop, "game changer" kind of trigger), now on a slow verge of 3rd impulsive short term wave +++ see MARCH, JUNE FED meetings as a time perspective to understand the "steepness" to reach the mid term swing TARGETS - 104,5, ext. 108,9 DXY

(NOTE: im not strict EW analyst, just use it as a descriptive instrument (not so much as a predicative instrument) as far as it fits on higher TF - it gives u a context of where u are/on what "timeframe" level u are)

Actual flows (the problem )
Chart 2: u see 1-5 decomposition of short term wave 1 up + ABC correction of short term wave 2 + post-FED flows (price sitting on some resistence right now) as forming begining of short term wave 3 up (= meat of mid term leg up)!!

HOW THEY EVOLVE??? =) Sisse scenarios!
""""

  1. Inline news with Dovish FED for a zigzag play: complete the leg 1.103x-> to the 1.070x handle and then to kill the year with the last fumes for a test 1.109x.
  2. Inline and hawkish FED will just provide speed and less bounce to 1.073x --> extended chop short term while bastards clear the year in equites and portfolios for a final failed test 1.097x for years end.

""""

Chart 3: we got hike + Q: dovish/hawkish FED? - sisse posted comment that its dovish = 1,103x to 1,073x to 1,097x (to 1,109x?) post- FED flow
Chart 4: you can see paralel copy on DXY - approx level of the EU play - suggests some kind of double bottom.

=) Outcome = there is gonna be plenty of time to jump into this mid term train we just need to map the post-FED flows. For me: the retraces to 1,109 seem way too high - around 1,097 for M,Y roll more probable (would be SHS formation on D1) - but what do I know, never traded year end

Hope it helps someone to get some perspective, any comments, strategies, ideas, corrections welcomed!!!

P.S.: hats off again to Sisse for the guidance!!

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  • #138,231
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:35am Dec 17, 2015 6:35am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} sure, you could use the UM/LM to reduce your risk...I like to look left sometimes and see if I can find tune the entry sometimes....in this case the Q help as support after the big push back through it, but then the bastards decided to take here down again...I looked at some shorter term PA near there to find a few levels that looked interesting...but its not always neccessy or possible...and it should be noted that the second level is nearly 20pips above the Q, but on a monthly level, that is acceptable in my view..alas these shorts dont...
Thanks for detailed explanation.
I am bit lazy I guess, I prefer platform draws those lines instead of looking left What I am doing in general is as follows. Short or long on those quarter levels and UM or LM +- 2-3 points for sl. And move on next one if stopped out.
  • #138,232
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:51am Dec 17, 2015 6:51am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Thanks for detailed explanation. I am bit lazy I guess, I prefer platform draws those lines instead of looking left What I am doing in general is as follows. Short or long on those quarter levels and UM or LM +- 2-3 points for sl. And move on next one if stopped out.

its not a bad strategy, keep the R:R up, and you will come out ahead for sure....and yes, you are a lazy bastard...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #138,233
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:59am Dec 17, 2015 6:59am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} its not a bad strategy, keep the R:R up, and you will come out ahead for sure....and yes, you are a lazy bastard...
Sometimes I am dealing more than 2 system that's why I have to let platform do extra jobs for me
On weekly or monthly r:r is good if those sl are hold and move in my way to other quarter.
  • #138,234
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:03am Dec 17, 2015 7:03am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I challenge you to just using 5 price levels/horizontal lines in a Weekly chart (how do you calculate them, I don't care but the levels must be according to you and only you) define a map for a potential mid term swing as follows: max level that you know you will 100% WRONG -----> A key support you expect on this side ---> FLIP (What is the level that will balance to one side or the other ---> A key resistance you expect on this side ---> the max target you can see in the swing Let us know your theoretical map...
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} But, if he is willing to help then I would be more dumb not to ask!

IMARICH1
So true, Hope your trades go well, and it would be great to keep updating your plans and thoughts here so we can all share the benefit.

I actually planned my trading map as soon as sisse posted his 'early trigers' last week advising us all to position before weekly close.
I'm planning to bank some at 1.08 (I know you all have been talking about 1.074x but it appears that it's more of FA level rather than TA one, as I simply don't see it on my charts -MN, W1, D1- and I'm too naive on the FA side)

My levels are" (only TA)

WRONG -----> 1.132x

A key support -----> 1.104x "my entry"

FLIP -----> 1.083x

A key resistance -----> 1.056x

the max target -----> 0.995x


It would be very valuable and benefiting if sisse gives me his thoughts about my plan.
As I understood from his teaching:

A key resistance is for a mid term swing, and
the max target is for a long term swing

Maybe still naive thinking, but let's see what he thinks.

Andrew
  • #138,235
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:07am Dec 17, 2015 7:07am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} he is good, getting bigger by the day....I'm always back man...you can never leave this place, kinda like hotel california I guess...
Isn't that the damn truth

I still insist cloggie is here somewhere....lurking
  • #138,236
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:47am Dec 17, 2015 7:47am
Quoting chester123
..., 1st short term wave (=1st hike expectations) + short term correction (= ECB flop, "game changer" kind of trigger), now on a slow verge of 3rd impulsive short term wave +++ see MARCH, JUNE FED meetings as a time perspective to understand the "steepness" to reach the mid term swing TARGETS - 104,5, ext. 108,9 DXY (NOTE: I'm not strict EW analyst, just use it as a descriptive instrument (not so much as a predicative instrument) as far as it fits on higher TF - it gives u a context of where u are/on what "timeframe" level u
Your DX analysis and chart perfectly nailed the point on how to Map a Trade and view & analyze markets swings/flows with different eyes. It doesn't matter if you are right or wrong and if I or the trader next door has a different chart or levels ...its yours and conceptually looks SUPERB and ready to be traded. BRAVO !!!

I would Highly recommend all people who have been asking related questions to bookmark your chart as reference on how to map a TA chart with FA in a unique solid BESPOKE chart map.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,237
  • Edited 8:40am Dec 17, 2015 7:59am | Edited 8:40am
chester123,

Thanks for sharing your MAP and FA/TA with us. I would concur that most the levels are where I am watching as well on the DX and EU. I was excited to see that your MAP included all the info sisse has been sharing. Well done and concise! Thanks. Appreciate sisse grading the homework and allowing us to learn. Good luck to you and much success.
  • #138,238
  • Dec 17, 2015 9:05am Dec 17, 2015 9:05am
Chester123 ,

Thanks a lot buddy for sharing your thoughts .... And trade pattern ....

Technically I still think that we will break the .046xx level before breaking the north 1.172xx .... How and when I don't know.... See it from total technical perspective... Correct me if I am wrong
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,239
  • Dec 17, 2015 11:39am Dec 17, 2015 11:39am
Quoting sisse
NY will take control for the rest of the year.
Hello sisse, this is because we only have left 3 high impact news on the dollar side vs none in Euro?
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,240
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:35pm Dec 17, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting troneras
{quote} Hello sisse, this is because we only have left 3 high impact news on the dollar side vs none in Euro?
I think USD interest rates will have a longterm impact. I think this is more important / weights heavier than whatever news is still in the pipeline.
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