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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,201
  • Edited 3:09pm Dec 16, 2015 2:39pm | Edited 3:09pm
sisse,

I have a trade open at .0958 and the one open since Dec 3 at .0800. I was looking at closing them at .0735 and reloading at .097x and possibly 1.094 (Strong resistance on my MAP). However, I am not sure if we will get a big bounce off of .0735. If so, it may be 50/70 pips which would then put my FLIP (.0808) area in play for a reload SHORT for a MID TERM play.

I also see KEY LEVELS in the DOLLAR as well. 102.xx, 104.xx and 106.xx. Is it wrong to look for inverse/correlation to EU/USD at these levels as well? I think you cites something regarding this as well. Dollar 104 to EU being .98; if so, perhaps 106.xx opens EU to .82. Just thinking out loud and showing my ignorance!
  • #138,202
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:11pm Dec 16, 2015 3:11pm
There are those in this world that are born to teach, and indeed those same few receive their blessings by teaching. Example; teachers don't teach because they are paid well, they teach because they love it.

My mentor and I go out on occasion for lunch and good conversation.....every time he buys me lunch, and calls me young-fella. One day I got into it with him over who was going to buy lunch, that it was my turn and that it's unfair he pays every time (our lunches on these occasions tend to be expensive). He explained to me, that him being able to buy me lunch is a blessing....I assumed it as a blessing for myself...but looking further into it, one realizes that giving is a blessing.....and by denying to receive this gift- you maybe inadvertently denying the giver a blessing they would have otherwise received through their generosity to you.

Perhaps it's sisse's way of not only blessing others, but blessing himself.

Also, now when I want to pay I just accuse said mentor of denying me a blessing if he gives me any resistance

Hope everyone survived, I'm in a bit lower than I anticipated, but I'll take it for what it's worth, aiming for a new monthly low personally....(the lower mofu touch at 1.1050 I'm counting as valid for 1.0460)
  • #138,203
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:27pm Dec 16, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Because I never leave a conversation OPEN... even if I am wrong ...thats who I am when I am trading and talking markets....but today I can finally and officially close the last open conversation open in the thread (this one come from March and some have already disappeared even before the hike) ... {quote}{quote} In any case, thanks for the kind words and I hope you are checking those maps ...let us know whats your 'trade' now that the knee jerk reaction (or the lack of in this case) has passed... sisse
Sisse I don't post much but I do follow you, thanks....
The Chonchy
  • #138,204
  • Dec 16, 2015 4:22pm Dec 16, 2015 4:22pm
...and we rolled. No surprises across the board nothing to see here same levels, same trades, same all across the board...

Quoting IMARICH1
...f so, perhaps 106.xx opens EU to .82. Just thinking out loud and showing my ignorance!
Don't have anything at 0.820x, (have we ever traded that low 0.820x?...not sure we have).

Whatever the case that level is UBER lock even in my long term map. Don't see it at all in any realistic options. Just out of common sense you will need a major catastrophe worldwide (WW3? EZ splitting in north and south ountries and the Euro staying on the South ? ) and probably +/- a decade with strong flows down to get there ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,205
  • Dec 16, 2015 4:45pm Dec 16, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Because I never leave a conversation OPEN... even if I am wrong ...thats who I am when I am trading and talking markets....but today I can finally and officially close the last open conversation open in the thread (this one come from March and some have already disappeared even before the hike) ... {quote}{quote} In any case, thanks for the kind words and I hope you are checking those maps ...let us know whats your 'trade' now that the knee jerk reaction (or the lack of in this case) has passed... sisse
Hi mate,

I am still around I am still working on the project I discussed with you while back. I added some features on it but it was hard to learn those things in mql for me as you know I am not a programmer. Of course I am reading all of your posts and compare my levels with yours in silent.

If that post of mine keeps you in thread and FF, I am glad I post it and we all learn valuable things from you everyday.
As I said at eurusd thread I have couple of open positions from above 1.14, 1.1044 and today 1.0984. And of course I have position open from 1.3950 nearly 2 years for parity or may be lower. That one is the my first and longest trade ever in my trading life. And I keep it open on purpose to show my self I have patience for long term trades than very short term trades.

Thanks for all valuable posts of yours and for your patience to answer all our questions.

I am still saying that if we keep conversations open you will never leave us alone

Regards
  • #138,206
  • Dec 16, 2015 5:34pm Dec 16, 2015 5:34pm
Rock,

One to watch for the week me thinks, considering the circumstances I'd love to short that ADR high again with higher leverage
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  • #138,207
  • Dec 16, 2015 6:03pm Dec 16, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Rock, One to watch for the week me thinks, considering the circumstances I'd love to short that ADR high again with higher leverage {image}
Draw Fib of AWR , LM UM and Mid is 1.0944 - 1.0961 - 1.0979 I will try to add 1.0961 and than we may get 1.0815
  • #138,208
  • Dec 16, 2015 6:25pm Dec 16, 2015 6:25pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Draw Fib of AWR , LM UM and Mid is 1.0944 - 1.0961 - 1.0979 I will try to add 1.0961 and than we may get 1.0815
That's a very interesting way to look at it.....
  • #138,209
  • Dec 16, 2015 6:54pm Dec 16, 2015 6:54pm
Hi sisse, you gave me a lot to think about with those points.
I would like to put in my own words your points, this way I am building a trading framework for my own, something that becomes second nature in me. It sounds like pure logic to me. In my opinion the most important point you give is the weight you put on each of the 3 things. I have always given too much importance to buy or sell at extremes, it has helped me learn some things, but as you say, we can lose perspective easily… many times I have made the things right, being in compass with the market until I got lost in the noise.

From here, is just a summary of your posts in my own words, it’s a very good exercise for a wannabe.

1. RISK: Once we have a bias for a period of time, we define levels where Price should go if we are right on the direction. We can look left for getting an idea of the way price moves between levels adjusted to the timeframe and time period we are interested to trade.
a. Entry: For a good entry area we should select a level that price shouldn’t be able to hold bellow (if we want to go long or above, if we want to short), for a long time.
b. Wrong Entry: A level that price shouldn’t reach if we are right on direction and timing. One level that would imply a trend continuation move in the wrong direction, and also is safe from casual spikes.
c. Find a target level, taking into consideration past price moves caused by similar forces as the one we expect. This level should be realistic with the timeframe we play and the market reaction we expect.
d. Finally, if we have a good RISK – REWARD ratio, we should trade it with sound money management principles. Never risking capital that takes us out of the comfort zone.

2. Mapping: Avoid the noise of the market and the extremes, trade in the range of your levels using any method that helps you identify peaks in the direction you want to trade, but don’t overcomplicate it because the important thing about this step is to be aligned with your levels, not getting the first pip of the move.

3. Timing: Identify what will move the market, map the trade and decide if you trade before or after. I copy this as it is. If you know when a major scheduled event is coming guess what? ...yes is time to plan your swing trade (or ride the next inner ebb/flow, etc) and that alone will already cut the other 15% of the chop and noise in your charts because you have a clear MAP with your levels, you RISK defined and your TIMING of when to trade reduced to a very clear range.

I have read this posts like a dozen of times, thank you sisse. Finally, I opened that demo account for the challenge, I am waiting to see how price develop after the knee jerk reaction.

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Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,210
  • Dec 16, 2015 7:35pm Dec 16, 2015 7:35pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} That's a very interesting way to look at it.....
Yes, I like to test new things as you know I am watching it for a couple weeks for quarter level reactions as well as high and low reactions with of course UM and LM included.
  • #138,211
  • Dec 16, 2015 8:05pm Dec 16, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Yes, I like to test new things as you know I am watching it for a couple weeks for quarter level reactions as well as high and low reactions with of course UM and LM included.
and your experience so far?
  • #138,212
  • Dec 16, 2015 8:34pm Dec 16, 2015 8:34pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} and your experience so far?
25 and 75 certainly has merit especially on weekly, there are always reactions around those levels. Problem is as you know those high and low levels are dynamic and changes with TF high and low. I am trying to understand how to predict next move from there with limited risks.
  • #138,213
  • Dec 16, 2015 9:12pm Dec 16, 2015 9:12pm
Would be interesting to look at sterling for a long-term trade in the next few QUARTERS.
  • #138,214
  • Dec 16, 2015 9:15pm Dec 16, 2015 9:15pm
Quoting TuTang
Would be interesting to look at sterling for a long-term trade in the next few QUARTERS.
lol

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  • #138,215
  • Dec 16, 2015 9:38pm Dec 16, 2015 9:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Because I never leave a conversation OPEN... even if I am wrong ...thats who I am when I am trading and talking markets....but today I can finally and officially close the last open conversation open in the thread (this one come from March and some have already disappeared even before the hike) ... {quote}{quote} In any case, thanks for the kind words and I hope you are checking those maps ...let us know whats your 'trade' now that the knee jerk reaction (or the lack of in this case) has passed... sisse
Sisse Sisse Sisse

This was the first time I was actually asleep during the announcement, sounds a bit ignorant, but thanks to you I had my map already in play with S/l and was all relaxed about it as opposed to the times I used to be glued to the screen all the time, especially during any scheduled event.

Many many many thanks. I was expecting some guidance from you from our previous private messages, but watching your posts in silence was a fortune on it's own.

I always struggled to understand you, your levels, your FA analysis, your TA analysis, your order flows analysis, and your market scenario anticipations. Although I'm still struggling with all of them, however now I can at least follow your posts with much more awareness of your market talking language that I tend to think is distinct to you.

Again, I add my voice to all of us here who learned from your generosity and patience to thank you again and again.

Also a special thanks to IMARICH 1 for being brave to ask those valuable questions as well as chester123 for his contribution to help us have a more sound understanding of your analysis, and of course, everyone here contributed to this small community, if I may say, for a richer knowledge for all of us.

Andrew
  • #138,216
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:54pm Dec 16, 2015 11:54pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. No surprises across the board nothing to see here same levels, same trades, same all across the board... {quote} Don't have anything at 0.820x, (have we ever traded that low 0.820x?...not sure we have). Whatever the case that level is UBER lock even in my long term map. Don't see it at all in any realistic options. Just out of common sense you will need a major catastrophe worldwide (WW3? EZ splitting in north and south ountries and the Euro staying on the South ? ) and probably +/- a decade with strong flows down to get there...
sisse,

Thanks again for all your insight and help! Oct 1 2000 we traded around 0.823X (Monthly chart). I don't look at this as LONG TERM reachable either unless there is a War or major catastrophe. However, I do believe .96 is reachable is we break parity. There is a little support or resistance there. I just don't see much but air under . 043X.

Also, for the record I am SHORT at .0958 and .0800.

And, do you still foresee a bounce from .073x to .097X in the cards still or higher. Or, do you see momentum breaking .073X and headed for a retest to .0516 with .043X insight? You switched from a SELL in EU to Strong Sell so wasn't sure how you were looking at .073x.

ws121, thanks for your kind words. It is difficult asking the dumb questions to a scholar. But, if he is willing to help then I would be more dumb not to ask!
  • #138,217
  • Dec 17, 2015 2:55am Dec 17, 2015 2:55am
Sisse you had a comment like : '' after fed hike cycle starts -> close your eyes and buy USD '' is this still going on ?
  • #138,218
  • Dec 17, 2015 4:00am Dec 17, 2015 4:00am
Quoting edyraper
Sisse you had a comment like : '' after fed hike cycle starts -> close your eyes and buy USD '' is this still going on ?
He updated his USD sentiment to buy in one of his updates a couple of posts back. I think it still remains valid.

Quote
-> Important third update after the key news and now the conference comments

Changing Dollar MID TERM OUTLOOK from NEUTRAL to BUY.
  • #138,219
  • Dec 17, 2015 4:08am Dec 17, 2015 4:08am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} 25 and 75 certainly has merit especially on weekly, there are always reactions around those levels. Problem is as you know those high and low levels are dynamic and changes with TF high and low. I am trying to understand how to predict next move from there with limited risks.
quarters are very underated, both weekly and monthly, I have used them for ages...its helps to filter out the hits by considering the last few legs, and the relastionship to the highs and lows...but even blind hits have a decent chance of giving you at least a short term bounce...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #138,220
  • Dec 17, 2015 4:11am Dec 17, 2015 4:11am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} He updated his USD sentiment to buy in one of his updates a couple of posts back. I think it still remains valid. {quote}
thanks .
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