The Really Useless Thread | Page 6910 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,181
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:24am Dec 16, 2015 11:24am
Sisse, Thanks.
  • #138,182
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:27am Dec 16, 2015 11:27am
Now here we go lets see what yellen has to say
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,183
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:27am Dec 16, 2015 11:27am
Quoting chester123
{quote} So if we got the "inline with dovish" short term play swings its gonna be one hell of a bumpy ride judging from the price action now
So far we haven't even move as widely suspected with everybody on the same boat and news as expected. Very basic flow so far (conference to come obviously) 1.097x tested (well a couple of ticks below) and back to the natural play we have been trading since last week...

We'll see in a few minutes as the conference will have a LOT of juice in content ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,184
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:33am Dec 16, 2015 11:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We'll get details on the conference for now just initial readings: "The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data." sisse
Hello sisse:

Congratulations on your correct analysis of what Yellen would do and your expert analysis on how it will effect the markets. Very impressive.

Reading the Fed press release is a lesson on how to write opaquely with plenty of carefully worded loop holes, eg
“the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.”.

Meaning they may never raise rates in a 100 years if the economic outlook doesn't look good enough.

Borg

Press Release
Release Date: December 16, 2015
For immediate release
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20151216a.htm
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,185
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:36am Dec 16, 2015 11:36am
Up to 1.1030 and then down to 1.0700?
  • #138,186
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:37am Dec 16, 2015 11:37am
sisse,

I can't get the live feed at work on the Conference. Appreciate you continuing to pass along the info as it comes. Thanks again for your analysis and input. I was able to see the short term News play(Short) and now the second part is being deciphered which is why it went back to where it was trading earlier. Learning! Different Flows!
  • #138,187
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:41am Dec 16, 2015 11:41am
--> Important third update after the key news and now the conference comments

Changing Dollar MID TERM OUTLOOK from NEUTRAL to BUY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,188
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:45am Dec 16, 2015 11:45am
Quoting sisse
--> Important third update after the key news and now the conference comments Changing Dollar MID TERM OUTLOOK from NEUTRAL to BUY. sisse
Sisse, your USD sentiment is dated until jan27-2016. Is this intentional or just an oversight?
  • #138,189
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:48am Dec 16, 2015 11:48am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Sisse, your USD sentiment is dated until jan27-2016. Is this intentional or just an oversight?
Exact dates are irrelevant ... if you have been following the conversation about RMT the call was a hike within six month from July. The signature was just added later and hikes are GONE now...i will update the signature later ...

sisse

Questions time and lets kill this ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,190
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:53am Dec 16, 2015 11:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Exact dates are irrelevant ... if you have been following the conversation about RMT the call was a hike within six month from July. The signature was just added later and is GONE ...i will get ride of it later ... sisse Questions time and lets kill this ... sisse
I have been following indeed so I wondered if you might update this (or get rid of it all together as you just said). Doesn't matter, I was aware of your bias indeed. Congrats, your projections haven't let you down.

I'm interested in what you think at this moment of the two projections stated by the two brave participants in your MAP standoff. Do you feel one or the other is more realistic / feasible? I personally find the lowest points quite deep (0.82xx???? is that still in the charts)

see:
Quoting sisse
{quote} Excellent now we have a perfect match up for this with the other poster that also wanted to join in. With that info I think we can make a few points on the upcoming hours till the FED .... BTW, Troneras was very clear in his view not sure what is your bias for this move as your wrong level imply you are just looking for LONGS ??... Let us know and we can chat with the close ... +++++ MAP MATCH ++++ ------------------------------------------- TRONERAS Wrong level --> 1.119x FLIP --> 1.050x Mid term target --> 1.00x Max extension --> 0.978 VS IMARICH1 Wrong level --> 0.821x Support level --> 1.043x FLIP --> 1.080x Mid term target --> 1.109x Max extension --> 1.134x ------------------------------------------- sisse
  • #138,191
  • Dec 16, 2015 11:54am Dec 16, 2015 11:54am
--> Fourth update after the news and conference....

Reconfirming mid term outlook in US equites from NEUTRAL to STRONG NEUTRAL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,192
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:01pm Dec 16, 2015 12:01pm
EXFORX,

Here is the actual set up and I was just going off the WEEKLY chart on these levels. I am not looking at EU getting to .82 anytime soon. I put .82 in as I don't see much support after .043x. However, I do see .043x being tested MID TERM. I think it will be some time for Parity and below unless the FED becomes more hawkish. I was looking for a test of .073x yesterday or today even with Dovish comments since the FED did what they said they would do and should leave no doubt that this approach won't continue. I think if data comes in bad for the US then one might guess it. Good luck to you!

Revised:


+++++ MAP MATCH ++++


------------------------------------ -------


TRONERAS


Wrong level --> 1.119x

FLIP --> 1.050x

Mid term target --> 1.00x

Max extension --> 0.978


VS


IMARICH1 (SHORT-BIAS MID TERM)Based off WEEKLY Chart


Wrong level --> 1.134x

Support (Resistance) level --> 1.1096 (Jan 2015 LOW Extension)

FLIP --> 1.0808

Mid term target --> .043X

Max extension --> .821x

  • #138,193
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:02pm Dec 16, 2015 12:02pm
...and we are reaching to the end of the line...

Fifth update after YELLEN important comments on OIL...

Changing mid term outlook in OIL from Sell to Cautious Sell with mid term floor on sight for next year (Q2/Q3).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,194
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:04pm Dec 16, 2015 12:04pm
Thanks for the update imarich, I still think 0,82 is quite deep for the mid term. (I count mid term as being months/quarters to come). Let's see what the future brings. I wish you good luck as well with your trades. Looks like you're on the right track. Taking Sisse as your guide is certainly the right path.
  • #138,195
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:12pm Dec 16, 2015 12:12pm
6th update ...

Changing mid term outlook in EURO from SELL to STRONG SELL with momentum on sight on a break 1.073x for Q1 2016)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,196
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:15pm Dec 16, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting ExForX
Thanks for the update imarich, I still think 0,82 is quite deep for the mid term. (I count mid term as being months/quarters to come). Let's see what the future brings. I wish you good luck as well with your trades. Looks like you're on the right track. Taking Sisse as your guide is certainly the right path.
I count MID TERM as Months and Quarters as well now. However, it is possible but I would believe there would be some kind of chop zone from .043x to .025x and then again from .025x to parity. I don't think it will just happen; however, I don;t have sound FA to back this up like sisse can. This is just my bias. But, I agree with you that I do not see .82 in the near future.

I am lucky to have someone so kind as sisse to educate and guide. I read his posts and amazed he bothers to take the time! He must have a passion to help others and teach. I am not sure why he has the patience to give so much info with getting nothing back in return. But, I am very grateful!

I have been around for a long time and haven taught so many different ways to trade. So many!!!!! But, nothing has ever been consistent. Success and then failure; Failure and then success. I want to find out where I am missing the boat. I was reluctant to posts questions here and especially to sisse since I am a first grader, if you will, being taught at a doctoral level by a scholar! I am trying to comprehend and understand all that is being poured out here!

All the Best!
  • #138,197
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:21pm Dec 16, 2015 12:21pm
...and thats it as we are entering in the local journalist loop of boring questions ....

Hikes for the headlines with a dovish FED for the shorter term news flow but more importantly I got everything I need and more from today announcement.

We have so much fuel and data that we are pretty much set to ride for the next few months ...Got what i need it ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,198
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:23pm Dec 16, 2015 12:23pm
I think it's like a new language. The longer you're exposed to it, the better you'll understand. I think the most brilliant thing that has happened, is that Sisse has triggered other people to take action (e.g. draw their own maps). I think this is a necessary step to mastery: getting in action yourself. Even if it's not accurate at first, it's a good thing to learn to do.
  • #138,199
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:33pm Dec 16, 2015 12:33pm
sisse,

Since you have STRONG SELL bias now for EU and .073x is a level to break with momentum, is this MAP still in play for a bounce at this level? I had a target of .073x and was going to wait for a bounce to reload but with your BIAS for STRONG SELL, I may not get to reload on a test if it has momentum. Is this what you are referring to?

Double play (headline and conference) so very complex environment if you don't know what you are doing. 1.097x is the only level to track for the news and it will be in play as late as the M/Q/and Y close.

 

  1. Inline news with Dovish FED for a zigzag play: complete the leg 1.103x-> to the 1.070x handle and then to kill the year with the last fumes for a test 1.109x.

  • #138,200
  • Dec 16, 2015 12:33pm Dec 16, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting IMARICH1
... I am not sure why he has the patience to give so much info with getting nothing back in return. ...
Because I never leave a conversation OPEN... even if I am wrong ...thats who I am when I am trading and talking markets....but today I can finally and officially close the last open conversation open in the thread (this one come from March and some have already disappeared even before the hike) ...

Quoting sisse
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} So if we keep open conversations then you can't leave
{quote} ....only for the pending open conversations.... I never leave a conversation open even if I am wrong so .... but thanks for the kind words ... sisse
In any case, thanks for the kind words and I hope you are checking those maps ...let us know whats your 'trade' now that the knee jerk reaction (or the lack of in this case) has passed...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
16 traders viewing now