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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,881
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:34am Dec 14, 2015 1:34am
Tuesday
10:30
12/15/15
SE Interest
(SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
12/15/15
GB CPI GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.

Tuesday
15:30
12/15/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,882
  • Dec 14, 2015 2:09am Dec 14, 2015 2:09am
What about Wednesday?!!
  • #1,883
  • Dec 14, 2015 2:26am Dec 14, 2015 2:26am
Quoting vvFish
Tuesday 10:30 12/15/15 SE Interest (SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release. 25% probability trades. Tuesday 11:30 12/15/15 GB CPI GOOD (GB CPI), England, GBPUSD Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release. 30% probability trades. Tuesday 15:30 12/15/15 The core US consumer price index (US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release. 15% probability trades....
please, can you post some analysis from wsj?
  • #1,884
  • Dec 14, 2015 3:33am Dec 14, 2015 3:33am
Quoting TerryTibbs
What about Wednesday?!!
Tuesday-mardi-þriðjudagur-星期二-Dienstag-火曜日-Úterý-يوم الثلاثاء-Вторник.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,885
  • Dec 14, 2015 3:36am Dec 14, 2015 3:36am
Quoting avo
{quote} please, can you post some analysis from wsj?
If you are interested in other resource analysts are looking for their own.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,886
  • Dec 14, 2015 5:43am Dec 14, 2015 5:43am
Attached Image
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,887
  • Dec 14, 2015 10:06am Dec 14, 2015 10:06am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Week "H" came

On Wednesday, a meeting of the FOMC, will be decided by the interest rate. With 80% probability of the markets assume its increase. Oddly enough, this is not the only rate decision this week, who are alarmed quotes.

EUR
Last week for the Euro without significant macroeconomic events. Future, also without disturbing events. Perhaps you should pay attention to the speech Draghi on Monday.

Continued speculation about the adequacy of measures to stimulate the part of the ECB.

USD
Shacks publication of retail sales on Friday the markets were trying to meet the heat (in the background was a weak 3 previous publications), but it was awkward. The market fully digested 80% chance of a rate hike intended Fed on Wednesday.

The stumbling block is the inflation rate increase. Against the background of the global fall in prices of Brent last week Stone actual prices in commodity prices are the main reason for low inflation in principle. Retail sales, as it were, it hinted - consumers tend to postpone money, not to spend, with the expectation of price stability, and conversely their decline.

CPI on Tuesday - the last of the most important indicators before the Fed meeting.
On Wednesday, the FOMC decision on interest rates.

GBP
The Bank of England held a meeting. At unchanged interest rate and incentive programs APF, McCafferty is the only member of the MPC, voting for a rate hike now. Protocols expected inflation below 1% in the second half of 2016 (the target level of 2%). Markets also expect to increase the interest rate controller to the end of 2016.

On Tuesday, the publication of the CPI - the consumer price index, which is the publication of the quarterly inflation report pushed the timeline change rates for the next six months.
England remains deflation of -0.1%.

Wednesday will be published labor market data.

AUD / NZD
The labor market situation continued to improve Australia's unemployment fell to 5.8%. RBA is in standby mode, changes in monetary policy on hiatus.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the expected interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5%. The minutes noted the absence of the need for further reduction in the short term. Wednesday will publish quarterly GDP (right after the Fed meeting).

CAD
It remains sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.
Tuesday is Governor of the Bank of Canada to listen - Stephen Poloz.

NOK / SEK
The consumer price index continues to fall, mortgage markets 40% chance of rate cut this week, but not solid the ECB can not leave the Riksbank in the "observer".

Lower oil prices should further stimulate Norwegian bank to lower interest rates - is about the mood around NOK. Official projections suggest a rate cut this Thursday. In contrast - inflation and the ECB all the same.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,888
  • Edited 11:06am Dec 14, 2015 10:39am | Edited 11:06am
Skcalping
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Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,889
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:38pm Dec 14, 2015 6:38pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,890
  • Dec 15, 2015 12:50am Dec 15, 2015 12:50am
the market will start to spike at "FOMC Statement" 21:00 GMT+2 or "FOMC Press Conference" 21:300 GMT+3?
  • #1,891
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:04am Dec 15, 2015 1:04am
Quoting kindleman
the market will start to spike at "FOMC Statement" 21:00 GMT+2 or "FOMC Press Conference" 21:300 GMT+3?
I have in+2, you see what zone you live in, and adjust the calendar news for your time
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,892
  • Edited 1:40am Dec 15, 2015 1:22am | Edited 1:40am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

SE Interest

12 of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the interest rate remains unchanged, the rest rely on its decline. Recall that the interest rate Riksbank is already in negative territory.

Forecast -0.35%; Previous -0.35%.

In 2015, the interest rate has been reduced three times. With the reduction in the consumer price index, mortgage markets are 40% chance of lowering the interest rate at this time. In contrast, perhaps, you can push the ECB and its "weaker than expected" position that does not stimulate the Riksbank to retaliatory action.

The first rule of the news trader
1. do not believe analysts

only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the market


Good luck
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,893
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:34am Dec 15, 2015 1:34am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

GB CGI
The Bank of England, perhaps for a long time stuck in anticipation of the return of inflation to the norm, the prospect of seeing the second half of 2016 inflation only "less than 1%" not very pleased with the probability of changes in monetary policy.
It is expected that in November CPI inflation has returned to the area: the forecast of 0.1% in the previous -0.1%. Deviations in these ranges can hardly be called critical, we remain cautious with this publication.

US Core CPI
Tomorrow a meeting of FOMC, what else to say. CPI is not quite that critical indicator which focuses FOMC, the more that the annual value of its holding at the "safe" 2% (talking about the basic parameters, and the total annual 0.5%).
It has a fairly low percentage of errors in the forecasts, since that is possible to use the minimum deviation, but a minimum range has a maximum risk.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,894
  • Dec 15, 2015 2:41am Dec 15, 2015 2:41am
Hello
Can you please give a tip for us-
What stop loss\trailing stop[how many pips?] do you use during news events?
  • #1,895
  • Dec 15, 2015 2:42am Dec 15, 2015 2:42am
USDSEK
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,896
  • Dec 15, 2015 2:56am Dec 15, 2015 2:56am
Quoting pulke
Hello Can you please give a tip for us- What stop loss\trailing stop[how many pips?] do you use during news events?
My friend, I almost do not use the foot.
I only use treylingator.
But if you are worried that you will not enter a deal it is better to use the Advisor who has the functions stop, take profit, profit trelinga.i closing parts.
For such couples like USDSEK b USDNOK, it is necessary to select the foot but not less than 1000 pips 20,000 pips profit.
For other pairs of Management agrees% risk your account.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Shad_TP_SL_Expert2.ex4   17 KB | 442 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Shad_TP_SL_Expert2.mq4   9 KB | 467 downloads


Experiments with the work counselor spend on demo.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,897
  • Dec 15, 2015 3:14am Dec 15, 2015 3:14am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} My friend, I almost do not use the foot. I only use treylingator. But if you are worried that you will not enter a deal it is better to use the Advisor who has the functions stop, take profit, profit trelinga.i closing parts. For such couples like USDSEK b USDNOK, it is necessary to select the foot but not less than 1000 pips 20,000 pips profit. For other pairs of Management agrees% risk your account. {file} {file} Experiments with the work counselor spend on demo.
Thank you
Can you explain "select the foot but not less than 1000 pips 20,000 pips profit". 1000 pips stop loss?????
  • #1,898
  • Dec 15, 2015 3:25am Dec 15, 2015 3:25am
Thanks vvFish

Sweden Rate decision, a couple of nice pips. First time trading the exotics so I was very careful.
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'Stability breeds Instability' Hyman Minsky
  • #1,899
  • Dec 15, 2015 3:35am Dec 15, 2015 3:35am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} I have in+2, you see what zone you live in, and adjust the calendar news for your time {image}
Hi vvFish,
apologies for my incorrect sentence earlier. I have both setting at GMT+2.
My question is which is the news that have the bigger impact. I remember either is the "FOMC Statement" 21:00 or "FOMC Press Conference" 21:30 will have bigger impact on the market.
If I remember correctly, "FOMC Statement" that minute will have spike. And "FOMC Press Conference" actually doesn't have so much of impact already.
  • #1,900
  • Dec 15, 2015 3:49am Dec 15, 2015 3:49am
Quoting kindleman
{quote} Hi vvFish, apologies for my incorrect sentence earlier. I have both setting at GMT+2. My question is which is the news that have the bigger impact. I remember either is the "FOMC Statement" 21:00 or "FOMC Press Conference" 21:30 will have bigger impact on the market. If I remember correctly, "FOMC Statement" that minute will have spike. And "FOMC Press Conference" actually doesn't have so much of impact already.
I'm not an analyst.
I do not teach trading on the news.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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