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  • #137,941
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:42am Dec 4, 2015 7:42am
chester123,

That's what I was thinking too!
  • #137,942
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:45am Dec 4, 2015 7:45am
Quoting chester123
Sisse, the undershoot/overshoot levels in your post r the other way arond, right?
yes... not the levels the words ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,943
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:49am Dec 4, 2015 7:49am
Quoting sisse
{quote} yes... not the levels the words ... sisse
Based on your view, how sure are you from 0-100% this month the Fed will hike
  • #137,944
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:55am Dec 4, 2015 7:55am
Quoting Sants
{quote} Based on your view, how sure are you from 0-100% this month the Fed will hike
IMO, FED already overstayed since Sep but with less than 2 weeks to go and only one round of inflation numbers to go in between...hmm ... well i would say yeah 90% - 95%.

Only a major unexpected externality (check OIL today) can change the outcome ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,945
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:10am Dec 4, 2015 8:10am
OPEC offers no production cuts, /ES turns down....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,946
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:15am Dec 4, 2015 8:15am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Both key levels on DXY and DAX breached now which will make things easier on the way back. They are throwing all their toys out of the cot and Draghi is going to lose some points here for teasing and dissapointing the market.
No break. Euro equity weakness fueling the standstill on Euro strength.

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  • #137,947
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:39am Dec 4, 2015 9:39am
Seems to me the rhetoric from the FED heads is preparing us for Dec liftoff.

My money is on a yes
  • #137,948
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:56am Dec 4, 2015 9:56am
Heads up if anyone's overlooked it ... Mario might want to get back up on the horse after yesterday's fiasco and take the opp for some extra special jawboning into Fridays close

17:00 EURECB President Draghi Speaks

Friday, 04 Dec 2015
Board member:Mario Draghi Event:Speech by the President at members' meeting of the Economic Club of New York in New York, U.S.A. Time:12:20 local time / 18:20 CET
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #137,949
  • Dec 4, 2015 10:06am Dec 4, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
Seems to me the rhetoric from the FED heads is preparing us for Dec liftoff. My money is on a yes
Welcome to the club ...

------ --------

Second update in outlook after the double ECB/NFP combo. For the European close changing short term outlook in European Equites (DAX) from NEUTRAL to SELL.

Active day with more key updates coming for the energies close ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,950
  • Dec 4, 2015 11:33am Dec 4, 2015 11:33am
Third outlook update after the ECB/NFP combo and after the test 1087.xx changing short term outlook in GOLD from NEUTRAL to SELL...

All eyes on OIL tripping in the closing range and Equities losing KEY 2071 for the close ....(@ FOOL !!!!)

Quoting sisse
.... 2100.xx holding the news is enough to kill the highs but all eyes are on the 2071.xx which is a major RAIN MAKER (as low as 1979.xx) for the ECB/NFP combo [in play].
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,951
  • Dec 4, 2015 11:54am Dec 4, 2015 11:54am
Quoting sisse
Third outlook update after the ECB/NFP combo and after the test 1087.xx changing short term outlook in GOLD from NEUTRAL to SELL... All eyes on OIL tripping in the closing range and Equities losing KEY 2071 for the close ....(@ FOOL !!!!)
well I am strangling gold (via GLD double diagonal w/ short legs $95.5 and $109 @ Dec expiry) so I will do OK if it will just move, either way. I thought about strangling oil and I thought the Saudis would not cave, (check!) but we shall see what comes of that - if oil will tank hard enough (and/or if fiber does the same) will that spoil the Santa rally? Today's equities action suggests "No." - but we'll see. I am most heavily positioned for a pullback in US equities in January.....predicated on a possible delayed reaction to Dec liftoff. I can not seem to make the markets do what I think should happen, although sometimes I get lucky. The invisible gorilla in the US is an impending shitstorm in the junk/high yield credit markets - if oil will keep crashing that will get worse, because many of the NA oil producers are heavily overleveraged with junk. 2016 is going to be an interesting year, I see bearish possibilities,.... omg it's about time.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,952
  • Dec 4, 2015 11:57am Dec 4, 2015 11:57am
Crap ... Nothing else .... Loosing foot .... Seems to me a storm is coming .... In a couple of weeks....imho Readjustment of price is happening ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,953
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:19pm Dec 4, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting sisse
...Today's on the menu we have OIL, GOLD, Equities and to lesser extend the follow up in Euro (via Dollar). [check]
Quoting sisse
...--> For the actual flows (from most probable to less)
-> Inline/slightly below open the soft direct ride 1.088x [check] -> 1.099x [in play ..failed 1st attempt] with max ext 1.108x to settle the W roll on the very highs.
Quote
-> Major overshoot [only marginally better]open a quick direct trade 1.090x [check] -> 1.076x with strong momentum on the break 1.083x [check]....

A quick update in the euro trade before the closing range. As expected for today Euro was subdue to the rest of the board. The slightly better numbers were enough to avoid the direct easy ride to the highs as it attracted the obvious sell the HIKES ASAP crowd.

We are pretty much stuck in between the inline and the better than expected flows but after the European close there is no more room for anything for longs. Trailing time and fill or kill for the rest of the session. Only losing 1.083x for the W roll will make me revaluate the short term outlook in the Euro ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,954
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:22pm Dec 4, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} A quick update in the euro trade before the closing range. As expected for today Euro was subdue to the rest of the board. The slightly better numbers were enough to avoid the direct easy ride to the highs as it attracted the obvious sell the HIKES ASAP crowd. We are pretty much stuck in between the inline and the better than expected flows but after the European close there is no more room for anything for longs. Trailing time and fill or kill for the rest of the session. Only losing 1.083x for the W roll will make me devaluate...
Sisse you just told what I had in my mind ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,955
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:39pm Dec 4, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting sisse
...here we go for NFP...just in case we get another leak all set for the news. ---> On the fundamental side. Expecting a relatively uneventful NFP with expectation of unemployment ticking down a notch to the 4.9% for the headlines across the non specialised media and inline NFP number. Not much to see on the employment front as the trend is very very strong so even a flop wont have an impact on the macro picture. The only think in play is via hikes DEC. Since last FOMC and NFP is pretty much a done deal, yesterday after the semi flop ECB the...
Sisse/or anyone else of course....

I think I have thousand questions after this week so just a few of them.

In E/U all seems pretty clear - as we said corrective swing finishing - perfect mid term positioning for the "3rd" leg down - just the pain is how to position now.

U said you were actively looking for short mid term positions on E/U. I waited today after the NFP if the price takes the intraday "soft direct ride 1.088x -> 1.099x with max ext 1.108x to settle the W roll on the very highs" to petentionally short mid term. It did not take the final flow and it seems the W roll will be under 1.097x = so that means its going to set the monthly high? On the other hand you say that the effect of the hike leg (I bet u mean the ECB leg) is gonna extend until next week. Me judging from the price action - almost no retrace of the ECB move = I would expect another quick attack on the 0974x with intraday overshoot even higher (max 1.100xx???) early next week as the last resonation of the ECB and as a formation of a proper top - reversly judging from the DXY - I think its technically non-probable its gonna go just staigt up from here against the sharp ECB drop without forming more proper bottom - SHS formation??.

On the other hand Im not sure how it goes together with again superb NFP and rates coming.

What do u think? Have u managed to position? Would you have any advice? Your plan?

My plan so far is to wait for next week and wait higher for mid term short = fade 1.099x?

Thank you
  • #137,956
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:39pm Dec 4, 2015 12:39pm
sisse,

"We are pretty much stuck in between the inline and the better than expected flows but after the European close there is no more room for anything for longs. Trailing time and fill or kill for the rest of the session. Only losing 1.083x for the W roll will make me revaluate the short term outlook in the Euro ...."


did you mean "there is no more room for anything BUT Longs as I am confused why you would re-evaluate Short term outlook if .0830 was lost. Short term, which I know means Days or weeks, is still SELL. Why would losing .0830 make you re-evaluate as I would think that affirms the view? Sorry if this is a stupid question as I am trying to understand and retain knowledge.

"-> Inline/slightly below open the soft direct ride 1.088x [check] -> 1.099x [in play ..failed 1st attempt] with max ext 1.108x to settle the W roll on the very highs.
Quote
-> Major overshoot [only marginally better]open a quick direct trade 1.090x [check] -> 1.076x with strong momentum on the break 1.083x [check]...."

I am trying to figure out if you are thinking its more reasonable for PA to go to .0760 prior to testing .099X or 1.108 or visa versa.

Thanks
  • #137,957
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:41pm Dec 4, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting The Fool
....if oil will tank hard enough (and/or if finer does the same) will that spoil the Santa rally? Today's equities action suggests "No." - but we'll see. I am most heavily positioned for a pullback in US equities in January.....predicated on a possible delayed reaction to Dec liftoff....
Well on US equites more than ever after today's NFP. We are in STRONG MID TERM OUTLOOK NEUTRAL as we have been discussing since Oct. The macro numbers are fantastic to say the least.

  1. The stronger the numbers the milder and quicker the short term rate hike impact will be...
  2. The quicker the FED get rid of the issue and start normalising the faster we can fly high very high ...


On the impact of oil. I wouldn't be that sure. There is some serious money getting caught wrong in the long side at these levels and fundamentals in the very very short term are not really helping.

We are aligning for a 'massacre' some big fishes could get caught awfully wrong if we break down. After today OPEC (and in the last few weeks) they are defending $40.xx handle with everything they got. I haven't seen such a struggle between major forces in OIL in a very long long long time... If market run through this last line of support we are going to witness one of the most powerful and faster moves we have seen in a long time ...

Lets see how it pans out, but for most of us on the short side, these levels are fantastic to manage as there is a huge margin of manoeuvre while the ones caught long on the lows are 1 step away from the cliff ...and there is absolutely nothing in between ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,958
  • Dec 4, 2015 1:06pm Dec 4, 2015 1:06pm
@chester123 & @IMARICH1

OK there is a few question out there and its Friday evening before the closing session so lets address some of the points.

Before we get in details the first major confusion is that you are talking about different plays here...

The play related to the NFP trade was/is the flow for the actual news play. No more no less...
Quoting sisse
... " ...--> For the actual flows (from most probable to less)..." ​
Those trades are limited to the exact extend of that small map no more no less, unless it's clearly detailed it (like yesterday " all micro levels raised ...1.061x to 1.097x etc etc). Despite of what I post !!!!, the key issue here is sometimes (like yesterday) a major news its a game changer or a report can serve for swing positioning, etc. This NFP wasn't as clearly expected since way before the news at least in my books:

Quoting sisse
...--> Finally Euro, which will be a bit on back sit given the massive move yesterday. It will just move as collateral of Dollar and the rest of the board. For the actual NFP play ...details later before the news ...
Quoting sisse
...Expecting a relatively uneventful NFP with expectation
These NFP flows in play for today ABSOLUTELY WONT change the next short to mid term swing trades (why should they?) so with that in mind we can discuss some of your questions ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,959
  • Dec 4, 2015 1:40pm Dec 4, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting chester123
.... W roll will be under 1.097x = so that means its going to set the monthly high? On the other hand you say that the effect of the hike leg (I bet u mean the ECB leg) is gonna extend until next week. Me judging from the price action - almost no retrace of the ECB move = I would expect another quick attack on the 0974x with intraday overshoot even higher (max 1.100xx???) early next week as the last resonation of the ECB and as a formation of a proper top - reversely judging from the DXY -...
I really like the way you see markets. I agree with most of your views.

A few points/ questions i get from your post from the general to the specific.

  1. Let me give you my 2 cents about. Timing in general.

If you have recognised both technically and fundamentally the next swing you want to trade (which obvisuly doesn't !!! necessarily mean you are right) the first step to map your trade is define your final horizon deadline.

For example using your comments assuming you want to position for the FED hikes leg in the euro/dollar. So:

  1. First step is mark in your calendar when is the event.
  2. Mark any correlate minor events that can affect that outcome in between.
  3. Map your direction meaning lets assume for example you want to bet in FED hikes and you EXPECT !!! dollar to get stronger and Euro/USD to sell off (again this doesn't mean you are necessarily right in the direction we are just talking about TIMING!!!!)
  4. Match the current levels with your trading plan (TA or whatever you use for actual trading) with you map and direction. Meaning ask yourself in the next event in between if the levels in play DURING that mini event match your EXPECTATION and direction?

    1. NO? WAIT ...
    2. YES? consider initiating positioning
    3. By the time you reach to the event, you may have position yourself before hand or may not all. So like always you are going to be either right or wrong it s irrelevant, The point is that you want to be proven right or wrong with the event trigger (this is about TIMING)

      1. If you are right, and are deep in profit before the event ...congratulations you just SELL the EXPECTATIONS and you WILL BUY the FACT ...
      2. If you are wrong, and are deep in negative (without been stopped out)? ...sit tight, if your analysis is sound and got the direction of the event right the event will take care of the rest
      3. If you are in neutral around your area with or without a position...markets are hesitant for the event, basically sit tight and play it with the event (or let the event lead the way and take a more passive entry after the news).

Whatever the case, my point is MAP YOUR TIMING !!!! Pay as much or I WOULD EVEN DARE to SAY MORE !!! attention to timing rather than the ultimate technilatiy on how to enter a trade ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,960
  • Dec 4, 2015 1:51pm Dec 4, 2015 1:51pm
Quoting sisse
The quicker the FED get rid of the issue and start normalising the faster we can fly high very high ... On the impact of oil. I wouldn't be that sure.
well, can oil continue to crash and US equities rally to new highs at the same time? It didn't quite pan out that way in 2015, as oil crashed and the S&P is sitting here today more or less where it was a year ago. Of course, the Fed's bungling cast a chilly cloud most of the year and that now has a chance of slowly passing away. I have been expecting a nice rally to new equity ath's for December, but I'm not so sure beyond that.

I will save musing about election year dynamics for another post.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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