chester123,
That's what I was thinking too!
That's what I was thinking too!
The Really Useless System 25 replies
Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies
The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies
DislikedSisse, the undershoot/overshoot levels in your post r the other way arond, right?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Based on your view, how sure are you from 0-100% this month the Fed will hikeIgnored
Disliked{quote} Both key levels on DXY and DAX breached now which will make things easier on the way back. They are throwing all their toys out of the cot and Draghi is going to lose some points here for teasing and dissapointing the market.Ignored
DislikedSeems to me the rhetoric from the FED heads is preparing us for Dec liftoff. My money is on a yesIgnored
Disliked.... 2100.xx holding the news is enough to kill the highs but all eyes are on the 2071.xx which is a major RAIN MAKER (as low as 1979.xx) for the ECB/NFP combo [in play].Ignored
DislikedThird outlook update after the ECB/NFP combo and after the test 1087.xx changing short term outlook in GOLD from NEUTRAL to SELL... All eyes on OIL tripping in the closing range and Equities losing KEY 2071 for the close ....(@ FOOL !!!!)Ignored
Disliked...Today's on the menu we have OIL, GOLD, Equities and to lesser extend the follow up in Euro (via Dollar). [check]Ignored
Disliked...--> For the actual flows (from most probable to less)
-> Inline/slightly belowopen the soft direct ride 1.088x [check] -> 1.099x [in play ..failed 1st attempt] with max ext 1.108x to settle theW roll on the very highs.Ignored
QuoteDisliked->Majorovershoot [only marginally better]open a quick direct trade 1.090x [check] -> 1.076x with strong momentum on the break 1.083x [check]....
Disliked{quote} {quote} {quote} A quick update in the euro trade before the closing range. As expected for today Euro was subdue to the rest of the board. The slightly better numbers were enough to avoid the direct easy ride to the highs as it attracted the obvious sell the HIKES ASAP crowd. We are pretty much stuck in between the inline and the better than expected flows but after the European close there is no more room for anything for longs. Trailing time and fill or kill for the rest of the session. Only losing 1.083x for the W roll will make me devaluate...Ignored
Disliked...here we go for NFP...just in case we get another leak all set for the news. ---> On the fundamental side. Expecting a relatively uneventful NFP with expectation of unemployment ticking down a notch to the 4.9% for the headlines across the non specialised media and inline NFP number. Not much to see on the employment front as the trend is very very strong so even a flop wont have an impact on the macro picture. The only think in play is via hikes DEC. Since last FOMC and NFP is pretty much a done deal, yesterday after the semi flop ECB the...Ignored
Disliked....if oil will tank hard enough (and/or if finer does the same) will that spoil the Santa rally? Today's equities action suggests "No." - but we'll see. I am most heavily positioned for a pullback in US equities in January.....predicated on a possible delayed reaction to Dec liftoff....Ignored
On the impact of oil. I wouldn't be that sure. There is some serious money getting caught wrong in the long side at these levels and fundamentals in the very very short term are not really helping.
We are aligning for a 'massacre' some big fishes could get caught awfully wrong if we break down. After today OPEC (and in the last few weeks) they are defending $40.xx handle with everything they got. I haven't seen such a struggle between major forces in OIL in a very long long long time... If market run through this last line of support we are going to witness one of the most powerful and faster moves we have seen in a long time ...
Lets see how it pans out, but for most of us on the short side, these levels are fantastic to manage as there is a huge margin of manoeuvre while the ones caught long on the lows are 1 step away from the cliff ...and there is absolutely nothing in between ...
sisse
Disliked...--> Finally Euro, which will be a bit on back sit given the massive move yesterday. It will just move as collateral of Dollar and the rest of the board. For the actual NFP play ...details later before the news ...Ignored
Disliked.... W roll will be under 1.097x = so that means its going to set the monthly high? On the other hand you say that the effect of the hike leg (I bet u mean the ECB leg) is gonna extend until next week. Me judging from the price action - almost no retrace of the ECB move = I would expect another quick attack on the 0974x with intraday overshoot even higher (max 1.100xx???) early next week as the last resonation of the ECB and as a formation of a proper top - reversely judging from the DXY -...Ignored
If you have recognised both technically and fundamentally the next swing you want to trade (which obvisuly doesn't !!! necessarily mean you are right) the first step to map your trade is define your final horizon deadline.
For example using your comments assuming you want to position for the FED hikes leg in the euro/dollar. So:
Whatever the case, my point is MAP YOUR TIMING !!!! Pay as much or I WOULD EVEN DARE to SAY MORE !!! attention to timing rather than the ultimate technilatiy on how to enter a trade ...
sisse
DislikedThe quicker the FED get rid of the issue and start normalising the faster we can fly high very high ... On the impact of oil. I wouldn't be that sure.Ignored