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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,921
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:41pm Dec 3, 2015 2:41pm
Quoting IMARICH1
.... This is why I took a SHORT from here. I am hearing SHORT and MID term outlook is Strong SELL this is why I did. I should have waited to see if PA would take it to .097x handle. ...!
In a nutshell thats exactly what i was referring in my post .... This is a machine gun approach !!!.

We waited 3 weeks for this short term swing to pan out what makes you think that 20 minutes into the trade we should reverse into the opposite side !!!!....when the whole world markets are getting hammered into the direction of the trade??? ... BTW as i mentioned many many time here SHORT TERM MEANS (DAYS to WEEKS !!!!)

Second point, why do you want to blindly reverse into a TARGET level!!!. A TARGET is JUST A TARGET ...dont make the very common mistake in these board of trying to trade every wave up and down to the tick.... The trade was long 1.061x -> 1.076x ->ext 1.097x ... not short 1.076x !!!! ... Smart money take profit on targets and sit tight to see how it pans out and manage risk ...only suckers blindly fade a target especially with such force and supported with FA...

Point being ...if you plan long 1.061x -> etc you LONG and MANAGE the trade accordingly .... don't outguess the next move before the current is over !!!! as you will be always missing the meat of the current moves ...

Third and more Technically , 1.097x (and 1.073x) are major W/M levels what on earth makes you think you can fade it blindly or with intraday chart. Even a daily close will be on the early bird side !!!...

i hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,922
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:53pm Dec 3, 2015 2:53pm
one more wild card....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryan-s...162528821.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,923
  • Dec 3, 2015 3:03pm Dec 3, 2015 3:03pm
sisse,

Thanks sisse. It does. Makes alot of sense now. I am learning thru mistakes. I appreciate your input and insight always!

I would like to see some sort of retrace on this pullback. Am I way off to look at the .0760 handle from this massive move?

And when you refer to a FLIP area. Is this an area you wait for a DAILY close to be above or below it or a W close. I know .061x was a FLIP area but Price dropped to .0550 then to .0630 and then to .0518 to we are currently at now. Trying to understand how treat and play the FLIP ZONE.

Thanks
  • #137,924
  • Dec 3, 2015 3:05pm Dec 3, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Thanks sisse. It does. Makes alot of sense now. I am learning thru mistakes. I appreciate your input and insight always! I would like to see some sort of retrace on this pullback. Am I way off to look at the .0760 handle from this massive move? And when you refer to a FLIP area. Is this an area you wait for a DAILY close to be above or below it or a W close. I know .061x was a FLIP area but Price dropped to .0550 then to .0630 and then to .0518 to we are currently at now. Trying to understand how treat and play the FLIP ZONE. Thanks
Play a flip with reports to avoid getting whipsaw in the pre news doldrums ...its usually a good rule of thumb ... but if you are already in because of whatever TA reason before ...just sit tight...

I was planning to trade 1.061x... FT leak killed my chances ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,925
  • Dec 3, 2015 3:16pm Dec 3, 2015 3:16pm
sisse,

Yes, I exited my .0610 to early. I saw Price reach .0747 but as I said I forgot my limit order was in and it triggered before I could remove it. Not a bad amount of pips but not as well as could have been.

I am in at .0800 SHORT for reasons stated earlier that was a bad trade to take based on your info and my lack thereof. However, I don't know if .097x will stop Euro for now. Was looking to see if Price would retrace some there and then attempt another shot at .0970 or .1000 or .1100. I just know you mentioned Price being locked around the .097x area for awhile which is why I believe I should stay in my SHORT for now or awhile perhaps. Thanks!
  • #137,926
  • Dec 3, 2015 3:18pm Dec 3, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Yes, I exited my .0610 to early. I saw Price reach .0747 but as I said I forgot my limit order was in and it triggered before I could remove it. Not a bad amount of pips but not as well as could have been. I am in at .0800 for reasons stated earlier that was a bad trade to take based on your info and my lack thereof. However, I don't know if .097x will stop Euro for now. Was looking to see if Price would retrace some there and then attempt another shot at .0970 or .1000 or .1100. I just know you mentioned Price being locked around the .097x...
Even better if it pass ... when you are aiming to fade a level ...overshooting the level is EXACTLY what you want to happen...

No no worries not judging you alone in that trade I am using it as case for the points....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,927
  • Dec 3, 2015 3:29pm Dec 3, 2015 3:29pm
sisse,

Thanks! I know you are not judging. I am trying to learn and I will learn at my own expense...no pun intended! Lol But, I am okay with being critiqued to be a better trader. I put it out there as I know you are one of the few that are successful in this arena and many are like myself perhaps with other trading hang ups or misinformation on how they are trading.

I am SHORT at .0800 and will have to see how things pan out during the next few sessions. I would think that with Non-Farm or FOMC tomorrow that holding at the TOP is not where PA would want to stay if there is another surprise in the making.

All the Best!
  • #137,928
  • Dec 3, 2015 8:08pm Dec 3, 2015 8:08pm
Sisse
what are your views on de30?
looks like over sold and already reached key short-term demand area and key mid-term support level
Thanks, Andrew
  • #137,929
  • Dec 3, 2015 8:40pm Dec 3, 2015 8:40pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/market...192858470.html

why would the Saudis take their boot off the throat of NA producers now? They've come this far.....
(the coming junk shitstorm cuts the overleveraged NA frackers and others the deepest)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,930
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:52pm Dec 3, 2015 11:52pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} agree ... actually a really bad NFP (if) comes and FED chickened out again for DEC hike ... it won't take too long time for that Spike ...
i am not banking on 1.2470,, i just mentioned it because its tech valid w/o a LL sub 0461. the tech part made this bounce possible along with 1086. some players playing large tf are playing 1.2470 from near Thursday low. i am not playing it.. but not naive enough to not mention it.. atm we have a 1.0462 low than a 1.17xx high followed by a higher low this week. tech wise we already have a valid target even before today's rejection.. that window was 0963/0462 w/o a LL.. to target 1.2470.. personally i am bearish for even deeper than most... but getting back to a min 1086 is in my game plan. i may have to adjust with nfp, because of rate raise. even if we end up making it back to a LL below 0462... i would not discount one final bounce to 1086, before 0.921x/9323
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #137,931
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:15am Dec 4, 2015 12:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am not banking on 1.2470,, i just mentioned it because its tech valid w/o a LL sub 0461. the tech part made this bounce possible along with 1086. some players playing large tf are playing 1.2470 from near Thursday low. i am not playing it.. but not naive enough to not mention it.. atm we have a 1.0462 low than a 1.17xx high followed by a higher low this week. tech wise we already have a valid target even before today's rejection.. that window was 0963/0462 w/o a LL.. to target 1.2470.. personally i am bearish for even deeper than most......
just for the hell of it.. here is the path a 1.2470 target would take. the 0979 level is where it stopped, the atm high... so dont think some are not playing it..one can see how close 1711 was to 1724.. using yest low... if 0462 is used its 1702..1711 is 9 pips above..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #137,932
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:10am Dec 4, 2015 3:10am
...and that was pretty much it for the European morning session.

Another MAJOR day for the markets in the making. Today's on the menu we have OIL, GOLD, Equities and to lesser extend the follow up in Euro (via Dollar).

On top of the obvious NFP. All eyes on Vienna today as it is the most explosive of the reports in term of sending shockwaves (inflation in Europe, Dollar strength and trigger panic leg in commodities and obviously all related currencies) WAY beyond the massive impact it will have in OIL directly.

Key movers and shakers across the board.

--> A double hit in Dollar today, OPEC failing to take action with inline or better NFP, will have major impact across the currency and commodity board with equities continue to sell off (via FED hikes) adding extra strength on the Dollar.

--> GOLD is on the brink especially after the flop in more QE size from ECB. A FED hike 're-confirmation' with NFP will unlock the exhaustion leg and we will get GOLD below $1000 main stream news headlines rather soon...

--> Oil has the best range and volatility play across the board. For those still holding the short side (i know a couple here), a small help from OPEC will push down OIL down to main target ($39.1x) and a tick below will unlock pandoras box in a PANIC LEG. However, today I wont be trigger shy at all on playing the reverso if OPEC delivers something as the spike in a few session extend as high as $50.xx without much resistance in between.

--> Finally Euro, which will be a bit on back sit given the massive move yesterday. It will just move as collateral of Dollar and the rest of the board. For the actual NFP play ...details later before the news ...

Here, super active trading in the last few days expecting to continue for today and the next couple of weeks ....

GL all,

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,933
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:17am Dec 4, 2015 3:17am
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the European morning session. Another MAJOR day for the markets in the making. Today's on the menu we have OIL, GOLD, Equities and to lesser extend the follow up in Euro (via Dollar). On top of the obvious NFP. All eyes on Vienna today as it is the most explosive of the reports in term of sending shockwaves (inflation in Europe, Dollar strength and trigger panic leg in commodities and obviously all related currencies) WAY beyond the massive impact it will have in OIL directly. Key movers and shakers across the...

After the facts would be more in line with forum politics though ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #137,934
  • Dec 4, 2015 5:57am Dec 4, 2015 5:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am not banking on 1.2470,, i just mentioned it because its tech valid w/o a LL sub 0461. the tech part made this bounce possible along with 1086. some players playing large tf are playing 1.2470 from near Thursday low. i am not playing it.. but not naive enough to not mention it.. atm we have a 1.0462 low than a 1.17xx high followed by a higher low this week. tech wise we already have a valid target even before today's rejection.. that window was 0963/0462 w/o a LL.. to target 1.2470.. personally i am bearish for even deeper than most......
thanks for sharing your view ...
  • #137,935
  • Dec 4, 2015 6:46am Dec 4, 2015 6:46am
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the European morning session. Another MAJOR day for the markets in the making. Today's on the menu we have OIL, GOLD, Equities and to lesser extend the follow up in Euro (via Dollar). On top of the obvious NFP. All eyes on Vienna today as it is the most explosive of the reports in term of sending shockwaves (inflation in Europe, Dollar strength and trigger panic leg in commodities and obviously all related currencies) WAY beyond the massive impact it will have in OIL directly. Key movers and shakers across the...
All clear Sisse and waiting for the play. Just one "beginners" Q:

I thought that the main simple equation is "oil down=dollar down". Is it true? But you said adding extra strength on dollar? Is that supposed to mean its dollar bullish for there is some other logic Im not aware of? Or you mean adding another pressure to the downside? Or is the mechanism working through equities, as ur post suggest, much more than direct correlation oil vs. dollar?

Thank you
  • #137,936
  • Edited 7:45am Dec 4, 2015 7:25am | Edited 7:45am
...here we go for NFP...just in case we get another leak all set for the news.

---> On the fundamental side.

Expecting a relatively uneventful NFP with expectation of unemployment ticking down a notch to the 4.9% for the headlines across the non specialised media and inline NFP number.

Not much to see on the employment front as the trend is very very strong so even a flop wont have an impact on the macro picture. The only think in play is via hikes DEC. Since last FOMC and NFP is pretty much a done deal, yesterday after the semi flop ECB the odds increased even higher (nearly 80% among experts) for a hike DEC.

Basically inline or better is reconfirmation of hikes...

--> On the Technical side. (only euro for this post)

After the strong move yesterday we pretty much cover the whole range to the top side. The highlight is (as suspected since last M close) setting this month HIGH is in play. 1.097x is the level to track for today and the W close but the hike leg can and prolly will extend until next week. Not much to see in the TA front as all its pretty much the same map we have been trading ...

--> For the actual flows (from most probable to less)

-> Inline/slightly below open the soft direct ride 1.088x -> 1.099x with max ext 1.108x to settle the W roll on the very highs.
-> Major overshoot open a quick direct trade 1.090x -> 1.076x with strong momentum on the break 1.083x.
-> Major undershoot (not expected) just add momentum to the upside with a direct hit 1.108x to quickly test macro stops for a potential quick in and out to the 1.11xx handle before FOMC...

All set here and locked and loaded across the board ... gl all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,937
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:31am Dec 4, 2015 7:31am
Inline/marginally better ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,938
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:33am Dec 4, 2015 7:33am
Holy gold
  • #137,939
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:35am Dec 4, 2015 7:35am
Shouldn't the inline/marginally better be enough to take us to .0760 and then lower as this is the most I have seen non-farm be consistent in the past months as this should be inline to prompt FOMC to take action now with rates and in coming quarters as Draghi (ECB) is doing.
  • #137,940
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:41am Dec 4, 2015 7:41am
Sisse, the undershoot/overshoot levels in your post r the other way arond, right?
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