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  • #137,901
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:15am Dec 3, 2015 6:15am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} 3 trades in, still building BUND H1: {image}
Just jump in your train
Very long journey expected
  • #137,902
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:20am Dec 3, 2015 6:20am
Latest comments form Draghi are v. clear like usual. A couple of key final points before we clear the opening range in NY.

  1. ECB will go underground for the foreseeable future after this. Basically all is link to inflation from today so those reports will be the movers and shakers from the Euro side for next few months.
  2. Euro has the 'go ahead' from the ECB to devalue a lot further down as it will help with inflation.

US back in full control for the rest of the year. NFP and hikes coming next ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,903
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:45am Dec 3, 2015 6:45am
still looking for 1086/1115 if 0963 allows.. still a valid 1.247 target needing a 0461 low to cancel. i hope to enter after 1086 and to fall sub 0460.. maybe even sub 1.0 ,, but if we make 1086/1115 now.. after that -046x new LL... we may end up right back to 1.10xx again.. before a final plunge.. what scares me about shorting 1.1 into a LL is 1.2 is still valid until we make that LL.. on another note, the pair seldom forgets a valid target.. so in years to come 1.2470, may be a top of a future spike..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #137,904
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:55am Dec 3, 2015 6:55am
Quoting gatorinla
..... 1.2470, may be a top of a future spike..
agree ...
actually a really bad NFP (if) comes and FED chickened out again for DEC hike ... it won't take too long time for that Spike ...
  • #137,905
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:58am Dec 3, 2015 6:58am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Also tentative over here and waiting for the clearer macro decision areas to come into play next month on DXY (98.40.), (maybe more imminently->DAX (11080.) and obviously 1.073 over here, all with the pullback. If they don't... I'm sure we'll have interesting things to digest on the FA side. Relentless Euro weakness on the back of that strong equity rally. Looks like todays close is going to seal 11080 (value area to sell euro/buy DAX.) with Draghi disappointment being the real risk to that outlook. Obviously need to track the close range...
Range extended all the way to test major dollar support at 98.40, after DAX support (again.) and 1.073 briefly came into play before failing with the extreme volatility. (Dissapointment on no refinance rate slash?)

We ultimately tested the important monthly players who orchestrated the monthly break from November with Euro equities and breached, but in the process of (maybe.) breaking back last quarters low on the pair.

Initial tests look definitive in my book so now it's a question of working the plays between the range.
  • #137,906
  • Dec 3, 2015 8:49am Dec 3, 2015 8:49am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Just jump in your train Very long journey expected
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,907
  • Dec 3, 2015 9:34am Dec 3, 2015 9:34am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Range extended all the way to test major dollar support at 98.40, after DAX support (again.) and 1.073 briefly came into play before failing with the extreme volatility. (Dissapointment on no refinance rate slash?) We ultimately tested the important monthly players who orchestrated the monthly break from November with Euro equities and breached, but in the process of (maybe.) breaking back last quarters low on the pair. Initial tests look definitive in my book so now it's a question of working the plays between the range.
Both key levels on DXY and DAX breached now which will make things easier on the way back. They are throwing all their toys out of the cot and Draghi is going to lose some points here for teasing and dissapointing the market.
  • #137,908
  • Dec 3, 2015 9:40am Dec 3, 2015 9:40am
Quoting sisse
Latest comments form Draghi are v. clear like usual. A couple of key final points before we clear the opening range in NY. ECB will go underground for the foreseeable future after this. Basically all is link to inflation from today so those reports will be the movers and shakers from the Euro side for next few months. Euro has the 'go ahead' from the ECB to devalue a lot further down as it will help with inflation. US back in full control for the rest of the year. NFP and hikes coming next .... sisse
sisse,

I am not sure how EURO has climbed this far based on the news. I am not seeing how this climb is devaluing Euro unless this 400 pip move is pure market manipulation(capitulation). But, NFP and FOMC still to follow. I noticed you were looking at .0730 handle on the QE flop but we are now at the Strong Resistance (.097x) today @.0945 and may see the .097x. I took a SHORT on the the overshoot of .0730 and went short @.0800 to fade it as it is the SHORT and MID TERM Trend. I am wishing I would have waited but I wasn't seeing that much strength in the news to drive it to .097x. Obviously, I was wrong. Any thoughts on PA now? I was looking for a retrace to the .073x/40 handle which would be a MID of that move and then a test of .097x possibly. It is not playing out this way. I will hold onto to my SHORT since it is with the TREND.
  • #137,909
  • Dec 3, 2015 9:44am Dec 3, 2015 9:44am
Quoting sisse
Inflation a disaster...ECB is missing all targets but economic recovery is inline .... First update after ECB. Changing short term outlook in the Euro from BUY to STRONG SELL. {quote} All long,mid and short term aligned with Fundamentals one more time this year .... got what i want data-wise, long move gone without me so very well done to all those holding from 1.056x ... _____$1.017x (Strong)__[AIR]__$1.046x(13 year lows/ref only/no support)______$1.054x(Soft)[check]______$1.061x(flip)[check]______$1.076x(Soft)[check]_____$1.097x(Very Strong)_____......
Quoting sisse
Latest comments form Draghi are v. clear like usual. A couple of key final points before we clear the opening range in NY. ECB will go underground for the foreseeable future after this. Basically all is link to inflation from today so those reports will be the movers and shakers from the Euro side for next few months. Euro has the 'go ahead' from the ECB to devalue a lot further down as it will help with inflation. US back in full control for the rest of the year. NFP and hikes coming next .... sisse
Hi Sisse, maybe you wanted to post today once it all sattles. I just wanna ask this in advance:

It seems to me we got the second corrective swing we were talking about in rather abrupt way (was not trading either side thanks god) given the fakt that the market "over-priced" ECB - so we dont get the clean sweep on weeklies (on the gossip side - it seemed to me Draghi seemed feeling pretty uncomfortable when asked about not fulfilling the expectations and not communicating well ). And u say the fundamentals are aligned = but its still the same divergence story, right? I seems to me nothing has changed - EU stays with low inflation, ECB with further possible easing in 2016, FED tightening cycle - still the same old song!

I.E. we get:

long term: sell
mid term: sell

Short term: strong sell

In case of short term: its because all the levels have been reached and only the extension remains?

If this is the case this retrace may provide the best selling mid term opportunity! Is it not?

...................

The second part about EURO getting "go ahead to devaluate" from ECB. How did u get this conclusion? Its generally clear that any devaluation is good for ECB but was there anything specific today about it? Maybe I missed it in the conference. But they usually do not comment on exchange rate.

Thank you!
  • #137,910
  • Dec 3, 2015 10:20am Dec 3, 2015 10:20am
santa came early this year
Attached Image
  • #137,911
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:14am Dec 3, 2015 11:14am
Quoting gatorinla
still looking for 1086/1115 if 0963 allows.. still a valid 1.247 target needing a 0461 low to cancel. i hope to enter after 1086 and to fall sub 0460.. ..
After 3 long weeks we finally got the pullback. As we have been chatting no surprises on the tech front with the test of the 1.09xx handle. We more than probably not get as high as 1.108x (but I would love if we do) with the strong 1.097x out there for the FED (we may need a massive lop NFP which i doubt)... Whatever the case, all clear now and back to square one which is what we wanted ....

Actively looking to position in Euro after the last 3 weeks dry spell ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,912
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:34am Dec 3, 2015 11:34am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I am not sure how EURO has climbed this far based on the news. I am not seeing how this climb is devaluing Euro unless this 400 pip move is pure market manipulation(capitulation).
I don't quite understand you mate. We have been talking the last 2 weeks about the short term swing. You even were positioned for it!!!

Quoting sisse
--> I just assumed from your post you were aiming for the short term leg 1.056x/ --> 1.076x with max ext to the 1.09xx handle (ext only with proper news aligned otherwise impossible !!!) [check..why are you surprise ?]
Why are you surprise about it both in the TECH or the FA side ?

Why manipulation? Why capitulation? ... we just got profit taking with the expected event trigger (for a clean sweep or retrace). Last ECB Draghi overshoot expectations and caught market off guard now he just delivered a strong extension of QE with a strong open ended free ride for devaluation and cut rates. The only think he didn't deliver was increasing the size and thats only for this meeting ....

If you put it in context hawks got pushed far far away in the euro for a very long time !!!.

Quoting IMARICH1
But, NFP and FOMC still to follow. I noticed you were looking at .0730... I took a SHORT on the overshoot of .0730 and went short @.0800 to fade it as it is the SHORT and MID TERM Trend....
Sorry to ask but WHY??? ...dont get me wrong but why on earth would you step intraday against the news and the whole world financial markets ...this is the third time I hint you this but I think you are REALLY mixing up HORRIBLY intraday flows with short term and mid term waves..... you maybe trying to catch a big fish with a small boat or even worst trying to catch a tiny shrimp with a Battleship ....

My 2 cents if you want to swing (short or mid term or both) you may need to clear your tiny micro timeframes charts from your workspace as believe me you WONT crack this approach to this business doing that ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,913
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:43am Dec 3, 2015 11:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ECB flop tomorrow (and inline/uneventful NFP) may see SANTA having to come back for Eastern ... .... got 2100.xx --->1978.xx potential early alerts trigger for today's close holding that level for the rate hikes play...tracking closely equities today... sisse
Looks like this one is panning out nicely. Let's see if NFP can give it the last kick.
  • #137,914
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:45am Dec 3, 2015 11:45am
Quoting eborn
Looks like this one is panning out nicely.
bears with legs have been so hard to find
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,915
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:48am Dec 3, 2015 11:48am
Hi Sisse,

Any chance do we witness 1.12/1.13 levels if 1.10XX is broken?

Just wondering, the move still has more power to reach new records...
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #137,916
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:54am Dec 3, 2015 11:54am
Quoting sisse
Inflation a disaster...ECB is missing all targets but economic recovery is inline .... First update after ECB. Changing short term outlook in the Euro from BUY to STRONG SELL. {quote} All long,mid and short term aligned with Fundamentals one more time this year .... got what i want data-wise, long move gone without me so very well done to all those holding from 1.056x ... _____$1.017x (Strong)__[AIR]__$1.046x(13 year lows/ref only/no support)______$1.054x(Soft)[check]______$1.061x(flip)[check]______$1.076x(Soft)[check]_____$1.097x(Very Strong)_____......
uff ...and we arrived what a move ...1.097x tested...

_____$1.017x (Strong)__[AIR]__$1.046x(13 year lows/ref only/no support)______$1.054x(Soft)[check]______$1.061x(flip)[check]______$1.076x(Soft)[check]_____$1.097x(Very Strong)_____[check]..

Quoting chester123
....dont get the clean sweep on weeklies..
Yeap ...

Quote
- EU stays with low inflation, ECB with further possible easing in 2016, FED tightening cycle - still the same old song! I.E. we get: long term: sell mid term: sell Short term: strong sell In case of short term: its because all the levels have been reached and only the extension remains? If this is the case this retrace may provide the best selling mid term opportunity!

Exactly !!!

Quote
. The second part about EURO getting "go ahead to devaluate" from ECB. How did u get this conclusion? ..

Its not my interpretation only. He said it in the exact words during the Q&A referring to the impact of value of the euro (against the dollar) and its impact in inflation implying that even the exchange rate (eur/usd) is not a policy goal for the ECB, the current levels has been fully absorbed in inflation ...and ECB is way below target ....the ECB will do everything in this power to keep its mandate to control price stability, etc etc...

In simple words, ECB wont worry at all with Euro losing a few more handles in the next 2 Quarters or at least until inflation start picking up...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,917
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:06pm Dec 3, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting sisse
... In simple words, ECB wont worry at all with Euro losing a few more handles in the next 2 Quarters or at least until inflation start picking up... sisse
just need Ma Yellen to bring the mail....looks like a done deal....short fiber looking like easy money for Januar
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,918
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:18pm Dec 3, 2015 12:18pm
===ACTUAL===

Quoting sisse
An expected ECB (meaning a rate cut at least and some QE ext) with a inline/flop in NFP opens a mini zigzag to the lows of the 1.05xx [check] of the handle for the -> 1.061x [check] with max extension 1.076x [in play with flop in QE].


sisse,

I played the LONG from .0610 to .0725. as I had a limit order in that I forgot about. After price went past this .0760 area to .0800 I SHORTED looking at PA with TA?FA overshooting the .0760 as the .097x handle was for another trade plan you mentioned if we had a triple whammy. This is why I took a SHORT from here.

I am hearing SHORT and MID term outlook is Strong SELL this is why I did. I should have waited to see if PA would take it to .097x handle. Even so, I Would be in a SHORT now but it appears you are agreeing with Gator that it could go higher yet?

I saw in your posts that you saw the .097X being locked for a long time so another reason I took the SHORT intraday. Perhaps, you are stating I should have waited to let the dust settle to see where PA would go.

--> In the Euro, after 6 consecutive failed months attempts we FINALLY lost 1.097x unlocking the map all the way down to0.98xx for the first time since March. We are officially in imminent break down !!! in the Euro

Still learning. Thanks for your input!
  • #137,919
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:40pm Dec 3, 2015 12:40pm
Please don't make the mistake to take anybody's insights as trading signals. I think that's the thing that's going wrong for you. Sisse is never saying: now you should long/short. He's making brilliant "roadmaps" with very accurate levels and YES priceaction usually follows these trajectories but please, again, don't see it as immediate "pull the trigger" signals, this will surely end up in a mess for you.
  • #137,920
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:41pm Dec 3, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} uff ...and we arrived what a move ...1.097x tested...
Great analysis these last months, just superb!

I get that the Euro is a LONG TERM sell with target 0.98xx .
You said that 1.0970 is very strong so I would assume shorting here with the above mentioned target is a reasonable thought?!

On the other hand, I remember this:
Quote
______$1.0161(Soft)[double check]______$1.073x(strong)[triple check]______$1.097(flip)[check]______$1.117x(soft)[check]______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(Steel Support <<could be lock today>>)​

And looking at today's Daily bar , if it were to end the day at or near the highs it would certainly look like strong Bullish momentum could continue upwards . This could mean that 1.0970 is again a FLIP area and we can move upwards even more to the above targets and maybe short even higher..

No surprise the high for today has been your 1.0970. That's voodoo stuff right there!
THE QUESTION IS- how to know whether to short here or perhaps we are on the verge of some more momentum from here to the upside?
How do we get the short signal confirmation?

As always, any words of wisdom from you would be greatly appreciated

P.S .. I am short from 1.0970 , how should I manage such a position? Can you share some tips about position management..what to look for.
Maybe I was too early with this entry since as I mentioned this day is extremely bullish..
I am not afraid to say it bro, you are an inspiration to me and I am sure to many many others .
Thank you for your help
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