Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics | Page 21 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Auction Market Theory and Market Profile 26,026 replies

MarketProfile/Volume Profile/Auction Market Theory indi? 17 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Auction Market Value Analytics Charts & Data 14 replies

Analytics, recommendations - S&P 500, Euro and other 11 replies

Attachments: Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics
Exit Attachments

Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics

  • #401
  • Edited 11:45am Nov 20, 2015 11:25am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting Evak
Nice trade to you too Claudia : Not so lucky this morning as my Nzdusd trigger a buy but stop out. Better time later perhaps. AUD good choice though My AUDCAD still in play but i did not add. 10, 20 bracketing in this case just broke out of 20. Initial break out was last Thursday with 5 10 bracketing break. There after price pause on flat base & broke yesterday again a week later. {image}
I too have a fair share of snafu's.
You do an amazing job staying with the breaks. Thats the most difficult part for me, managing the trade after the fact. I often take profits too prematurely. Then after a few days of hindsight, I ask myself why I just didnt stay with the trade. I hate the bird in the hand vs. the 2 in the bush dilemma ..
Your examples are much appreciated

The audcad trade is working out well..............
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #402
  • Nov 22, 2015 4:21am Nov 22, 2015 4:21am
Hi,

from my analysis today these ones looking good: eurcad,nzdusd,usdjpy.
Thier behaviour suggest a change in value in the next time. So I think thier is an opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pairs 22112015.png Size: 112 KB


greetings
c
  • #403
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:46am Nov 23, 2015 11:46am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I too have a fair share of snafu's. You do an amazing job staying with the breaks. Thats the most difficult part for me, managing the trade after the fact. I often take profits too prematurely. Then after a few days of hindsight, I ask myself why I just didnt stay with the trade. I hate the bird in the hand vs. the 2 in the bush dilemma .. Your examples are much appreciated The audcad trade is working out well..............
Psychologically is tough for everyone. Only way to defray the cost of holding-on for me that I take half of my single trade position once in profit in about 2x or 3x VYT then hang on to the rest. Psychologically i don't feel so nervous this way.
  • #404
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:52am Nov 23, 2015 11:52am
Quoting dljonesFan
Hi, from my analysis today these ones looking good: eurcad,nzdusd,usdjpy. Thier behaviour suggest a change in value in the next time. So I think thier is an opportunity. {image} greetings c
Setting up for Monday is tough somehow, I will resist the temptation to trade breakouts but even so the 5 day overlay will have to be very balance with SF value close to unity=1 with higher then average TFF. Only then i will consider. In this case USDCAD fits the bill for me.
  • #405
  • Nov 23, 2015 12:22pm Nov 23, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting Evak
{quote} Psychologically is tough for everyone. Only way to defray the cost of holding-on for me that I take half of my single trade position once in profit in about 2x or 3x VYT then hang on to the rest. Psychologically i don't feel so nervous this way.
Thanks Evak I really appreciate the tip.
Before the FIFO rules, it was so much easier to add to & manage those trades. I will definitely take your advice. It does sound much less stressful. I have to fight the urge of feeling I have to be “all” in, “all” the time, with my trades.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #406
  • Nov 24, 2015 10:45am Nov 24, 2015 10:45am
Hi,

I think eurcad looks interesting, because of its high TFF. VTY is low and stable, "Vol" down, the bell looks good and buyer -seller tpos nearly balanced. With some activity that one could be a nice trade. What do you think?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad24112015.JPG Size: 95 KB


still learning... but found out some cool stuff, thank you mzvega!
greetings
c
  • #407
  • Nov 24, 2015 11:31am Nov 24, 2015 11:31am
Quoting dljonesFan
Hi, I think eurcad looks interesting, because of its high TFF. VTY is low and stable, "Vol" down, the bell looks good and buyer -seller tpos nearly balanced. With some activity that one could be a nice trade. What do you think? {image} still learning... but found out some cool stuff, thank you mzvega! greetings c
EURCAD has been in downtrend for more the 2 month, POC for 5d overlay is lower then 20d which suggest value shift downtrend to continue. And any upmove in the recent 2 days seem to be capped.
  • #408
  • Nov 24, 2015 12:22pm Nov 24, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting Evak
{quote} EURCAD has been in downtrend for more the 2 month, POC for 5d overlay is lower then 20d which suggest value shift downtrend to continue. And any upmove in the recent 2 days seem to be capped.
only one test Bracket UL on 2015.11.23, last test Bracket LL was 2015.11.19. Do you look at the internal trend too?
  • #409
  • Edited 9:44am Nov 25, 2015 9:28am | Edited 9:44am
Hey there!

the eur/cad had his breakout today

Here some new candidats for breakouts in the "next time":

aud/jpy - up
aud/usd (bad TFF, must go higher first) - up
usd/jpy - up

2015.11.24 data

greetings
  • #410
  • Nov 25, 2015 9:39am Nov 25, 2015 9:39am
Quoting dljonesFan
Hey there! the eur/cad had his breakout today Here some new candidats for breakouts in the "next time": aud/jpy aud/usd (bad TFF, must go higher first) usd/jpy greetings
I'm not quite sure I understand what a "Bad" TFF is.
Can you clarify?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #411
  • Edited 5:40am Nov 26, 2015 3:22am | Edited 5:40am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I'm not quite sure I understand what a "Bad" TFF is. Can you clarify?
Hey mzvega,

I think the TFF is "bad" because my day statistics show me that picture (with 100 point price steps) :
last Maximum on 18.11.2015 - 6,7
last Minimum on 9.11.2015 - 3,43
Yesterday (Data from 24.11.2015) - 4,12
so the TFF is around the middle, for me its an sign that the TFF can go everywhere.

Today data (25.11.2015) shows me that the TFF has risen to to 5,24. The picture is getting better, (the TFF must turn around in time).
But the SF changed to 2,3. So no breakout strategy aud/usd today.

They are changing on a daily basis, Iam currently looking at the pairs for breakouts, I like eur/usd and usd/chf...
gbpy/jpy for responsive trading.
  • #412
  • Edited 9:38pm Nov 26, 2015 10:27am | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting dljonesFan
{quote} Hey mzvega, I think the TFF is "bad" because my day statistics show me that picture (with 100 point price steps) : last Maximum on 18.11.2015 - 6,7 last Minimum on 9.11.2015 - 3,43 Yesterday (Data from 24.11.2015) - 4,12 so the TFF is around the middle, for me its an sign that the TFF can go everywhere. Today data (25.11.2015) shows me that the TFF has risen to to 5,24. The picture is getting better, (the TFF must turn around in time). But the SF changed to 2,3. So no breakout strategy aud/usd today. They are changing on a daily basis, Iam...
"What" does a "Bad" TFF tell you about the condition of the market? And in your opinion what is a "Bad" TFF number"?
&
"What" does a "Good" TFF tell you about the condition of the market? And in your opinion what is a "Good" TFF number"?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #413
  • Nov 27, 2015 2:07am Nov 27, 2015 2:07am
hi C

http://www.cisco-futures.com/BACKGRO...GES_TABLE.HTML

https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t&r...fLqhovYOQaTuiA

some grounding info on TFF
  • #414
  • Nov 27, 2015 4:32am Nov 27, 2015 4:32am
Hi,

thank you evak for the pdf.

USDCHF broke out today, some capping in gbpjpy started yesterday, eurusd still in bracket.

mzvega, I send you a massage.

Is somebody using the internal trend method? Or only the market flow data? Today all my time is dedicated to the internal trend data. Hopefully I can learn something...

greetings
chris
  • #415
  • Nov 27, 2015 12:19pm Nov 27, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Hi, thank you evak for the pdf. USDCHF broke out today, some capping in gbpjpy started yesterday, eurusd still in bracket. mzvega, I send you a massage. Is somebody using the internal trend method? Or only the market flow data? Today all my time is dedicated to the internal trend data. Hopefully I can learn something... greetings chris
Good TFF explanation
I asked for clarification because of your use of the words "good & bad". TFF can be a "subjective and objective" reference.
We measure the "observable's" (objective information), and with experience we use it "subjectively" in our trading decisions.

I just wanted to make sure your subjective opinion was built on "objective information"

Subjective is the opposite of objective, which refers to things that are more clear-cut. That Earth has one moon is objective it's a fact. Whether the moon is pretty or not is subjective not everyone will agree. Facts are objective, but opinions are subjective.

Internal trend data, is another study that Cisco has discontinued. I have used it just for informational purposes when I used only excel sheets. I have not yet added it "programmatically" to my database (which I will add eventually), but by observing the net flow data, you can arrive at the same conclusions.
But as with all Cisco data, the rotation index is left for educational & background purposes. I personally like the "format" of the "Ri", but I have used it as informational, rather than objectively.

But the point I'm trying make is, the market is the "Sum" of all it's "descriptors". Focusing to heavily on any one reference can be misleading. Part of the learning process is focusing on each reference to gain a firm understanding. But the "Net" is more informational than any one single reference. I personally use the "net" for the bulk of my trading decisions.

Again, great clarification on the TFF..........
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #416
  • Edited 9:53am Nov 30, 2015 4:42am | Edited 9:53am
Thank you mzvega,

Iam currently dealing with the net flow data. Try to understand activity measurement. I know the articles and examples by Jones, but Iam still not understanding the activity measurement. For example why is the activity +1 if todays tff > yesterdays tff?
Maybee my data is not correct. Do you use 1day data or 3 day data for comparison? Jones is using 1 day data.

A nother problem are the crawling markets, trending form bracket to bracket like eurusd now, how can i set my stop to not get a loss?

today i got a lot of pairs on my list, nearly the whole aud familiy

5day bracket analysis (some reference points)
aud/cad - tight va range and still shrinking, very high tff, vty low and stops shrinking, range stable and tight, direction up (lower Quadrant - so responsive buying)
audjpy - tight va range and still shrinking, very high tff, vty low and stable, range stable and tight, direction up - (lower Quadrant - so responsive buying)
aud/usd - small va range and stable, small range and stable, high tff, vty low and slightly shrinking, direction up (lower Quadrant - so responsive buying)
eur/gbp - small va range and shrinking, small range and stable, high tff still rising, vty low and stable, direction mixed, maybe reversal
eur/usd - tight va range and expanding, very tight range and stable, extreme high tff and starts shrinking, extreme low vty stil shrinking, direction down, lower q strategy: breakdown
nzd/usd - small stable va range, small stable range, high tff, low shrinking vty, direction up ( lower Quadrant - so responsive buying)
usd/jpy - extreme tight va range still shrinking, very low stable range, high tff, vty extreme low and shrinking, direction up, already broke 5, wait for 10
gbp/jpy - low stable va range, low range, high tff starts shrinking, vty low nearly stable, direction down, lower q strategy: breakdown

greetings
Chris
  • #417
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:11am Nov 30, 2015 11:11am
Quoting dljonesFan
For example why is the activity +1 if todays tff > yesterdays tff? Maybee my data is not correct. Do you use 1day data or 3 day data for comparison? Jones is using 1 day data.
Again, the market is the "Sum" of all its "descriptors". TFF is just one descriptor
What gives you the impression that your data is incorrect if +1 if todays tff > yesterdays tff?

Because if todays tff > yesterdays tff that means there is more activity today than yesterday, so that is added to the sum (tally) of all the activity descriptors. The Net of all the activity descriptors is our activity bias.

Lets not use the word VA. That is a MP concept. For what we do, all we care is if we are bracketing or not bracketing. The TFF gives a description of the Bracket (VA)

"Markets Display Little Day-to-day Serial Correlation:
We know from observation that even in long term trends the probability of tomorrow being higher (or lower) than today is close to fifty percent (see example in Value Based Power Trading, pg 19 - 24). Today is therefore not a good predictor of tomorrow. So what does auction market analysis use for predicting future price? Nothing! Absolutely nothing! Auction market analysis makes no projections. Rather, we learn as much as we can about the current market situation. Then, we trade off the changes. We know when today's value moves relative to yesterday. We know when yesterday's balance breaks out. The market is showing its motivation by its behavior relative to value and market condition......Jones"

I use 1 day as per Jones but I also use three days of net flow data as per Jones for reading/deciphering the Flow Tables
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.JPG Size: 90 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #418
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:47am Dec 1, 2015 11:47am
Hi C

Just to add...
Best to look at TFF with volume in addition to VA range. Interesting though Jone's VGII left out Volume info. VGII only provide 2 days of descriptor if you like to call it, as oppose to 3 day flow which is mainly a tool in the Day Trading Engine (DTE) rather then VG. Ultimately you have to decide which approach suits you best.

Flow or no flow. One still have to ascertain the placement of overlay in relationship to the longer time frame. e.g are we still in a confirm up trend, are we in a correction or has the correction turn into a reversal of trend or market still stalling for more then 20days ++. Then you can decide if only long or shorts are to be taken or responsive trades taken into account of the underlying trend after a correctional moves.
  • #419
  • Dec 1, 2015 12:14pm Dec 1, 2015 12:14pm
Mainly the AUD & NZD trades breakout.

AUDUSD: I got stop out at first on my 2xVTY stop during Asia session but decided to reenter. This is not the best AUD pair today though but we are still in an uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.gif Size: 61 KB


KIWI is flying high today. Breaking out of a downtrend after about 8 days accumulation. Price took out both the 5 & 10 highs. Start of a confirm uptrend perhaps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.gif Size: 63 KB


AUDCAD; similar to AUDUSD but with spectacular move. Trend continuation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.gif Size: 54 KB


AUDCHF; entry was last Wed. I added yesterday too. A very whipsaw trade for most part of last week. I hang on believing the trend will not play be out & the positive swap helps too
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image4.gif Size: 55 KB
  • #420
  • Edited 8:05pm Dec 1, 2015 3:28pm | Edited 8:05pm
Quoting Evak
Hi C Just to add... Best to look at TFF with volume in addition to VA range. Interesting though Jone's VGII left out Volume info. VGII only provide 2 days of descriptor if you like to call it, as oppose to 3 day flow which is mainly a tool in the Day Trading Engine (DTE) rather then VG. Ultimately you have to decide which approach suits you best. Flow or no flow. One still have to ascertain the placement of overlay in relationship to the longer time frame. e.g are we still in a confirm up trend, are we in a correction or has the correction turn...
Again, you always seem to outdo yourself!!!
Great trade examples!
I got into audjpy, I also got in nzdusd which I took profits on a little to early, imo......

"Interesting though Jone's VGII left out Volume info"............

I believe I understand why that is so........
one thing I have learned from Jones is that "Volume" although loosely related to is not a direct indication of "Demand". We use the "Overlay Demand Curve" to measure & analyze "Demand". If volume really had such a great significance, we be trading volume profiles
But bare with me as I get together some references that I believe that support my opinion. I may have to go back as far as Steidlmayer's first book "Markets & Market Logic"..........Steidlmayer gave me the first hint, Jones helped me to understand it...................

EDIT: I also believe when Cisco stopped offering the LDB Volume report, they also removed the data from the VGII
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 199 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
1 trader viewing now