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  • #137,461
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:50am Oct 23, 2015 7:50am
Quoting sisse
---- A BIG shout @ Fool. Very very well done on that call on equites. All yours and officially you get the traditional BADGE of best CALL of the thread this month !!!. sisse
lol, thanks buddy. I got paid, that's all that matters. Best of luck to us all going forward - the game goes on.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,462
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:01am Oct 23, 2015 8:01am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} You going to try and play it off the intraday range with those Euro inflation numbers? Another extended bearish range today for the weekly close will look great and really lock down the highs and dare I say cap the dollar...
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.108x held steady the European session. Not in a hurry to load for more than intraday trade here as we have the FED M/W combo next week. I agree with your point , 1.112x is last micro breakout [check]. If NY is going to finish the deal today is a quick in and out to the 1.09xx handle (1.097x) [in play] for the FED....
​
Simple intraday play as expected right on time for NY. Clearing the only micro partial target on the test 1.103x and the rest for the just in case NY wants to play ball (1.097x) ...

Not much to do here with Equities entering in strong R (S&P 2070.xx [check] btw]), Gold sitting in strong R and Oil in strong S. Only dollar (euro) with some crumbs left...the rest is for next key week for the rest of the year ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,463
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:20am Oct 23, 2015 8:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} Simple intraday play as expected right on time for NY. Clearing the only micro partial target on the test 1.103x and the rest for the just in case NY wants to play ball (1.097x) ... Not much to do here with Equities entering in strong R (S&P 2070.xx [check] btw]), Gold sitting in strong R and Oil in strong S. Only dollar (euro) with some crumbs left...the rest is for next key week for the rest of the year ... sisse
Easy test to the nano-tick of last quarters open along with the quick in and out on DXY at 96.27 for the intraday continuation. Looking set for that strong weekly close now and nicely synced to follow the other side of the pair next week.
  • #137,464
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:50am Oct 23, 2015 8:50am
Quoting sisse
{quote} The FED already shoot themselves in the foot is my reading. Next week will confirm the mistake. Not only the US but the whole world economy is going to pay a very heavy toll for the lack of action and north from the FED....like always the bastards will be the only ones to make a feast while the party last ...the rest of us mortals may have to pick up the pieces(bill) later and prolly bail them out again ... Out of the 'emotional' argument from a strictly economic point of view. Today extreme ECB panic view about deflation (and better don't...
It's getting less and less to do for me, just wait and collect. Even the interims-trades aren't necessary any more, so the timeframes are growing.
Will check back from time to time to see the FA outlook until I finished my own FA-education for whatever that means

Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Why's that? btw... do you have 1.13913, 1.12005 and 1.14867 in your sequence? Just that the 12005 is below the infamous 1209. Waiting... and for the Q to close.
  • #137,465
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:54am Oct 23, 2015 8:54am
yehaw
  • #137,466
  • Oct 23, 2015 9:01am Oct 23, 2015 9:01am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} ... to see the FA outlook until I finished my own FA-education for whatever that means {quote}
...It only means WHEN not HOW to trade ... and that very subtle difference may (or may not for some) make the difference between consistent results or getting stuck in the never ending circle of always knowing WHAT to do but never knowing WHY sometimes is not the right time to do it ....

In any case lets see how we roll today ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,467
  • Oct 23, 2015 9:16am Oct 23, 2015 9:16am
sisse,

Perhaps, you could share what you will be looking for regarding a set up to trade this sell off in order to get into position as I would like to understand your "same levels" in play with the fact we closed yesterday under 1.1120x

You have changed your stance from neutral to SELL. Does this mean you do not look for LONGS around the 1.09 to 1.08 handle? Or, are you looking at .1270, .1120-40 as a cap? I am trying to see how a trader as yourself looks for a place to position yourself. At times, I find that price overshoots where I go in for a position near same levels that no longer hold as well. Main concern is not getting in high enough if there is profit taking or taking a position for a Long as Euro makes new lows from a monthly perspective or heads toward parity.

Looking to understand more how to play this for next week. I know you indicated if the FED does hike then this should happen and if FED doesn't; but, more interested in the levels in play (do you use Monthly or Weekly Closes more?) and how to play this from a FA and TA point of view.

Any input is appreciated!
  • #137,468
  • Oct 23, 2015 9:23am Oct 23, 2015 9:23am
Thank you Sisse for the work here... I think i passed that stage of understanding when and when not to trade but my issue is impulse trades and when i trade on impulse i go big then you know the rest of the story.... Any suggestion on how to handle impulse trades please???
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...It only means WHEN not HOW to trade ... and that very subtle difference may (or may not for some) make the difference between consistent results or getting stuck in the never ending circle of always knowing WHAT to do but never knowing WHY sometimes is not the right time to do it .... In any case lets see how we roll today ... sisse
  • #137,469
  • Oct 23, 2015 10:49am Oct 23, 2015 10:49am
Quoting IMARICH1
.... I would like to understand your "same levels" in play with the fact we closed yesterday under 1.1120x You have changed your stance from neutral to SELL. Does this mean you do not look for LONGS around the 1.09 to 1.08 handle? Or, are you looking at .1270, .1120-40 as a cap?
--> An outlook it just shows you the path of least resistance.

--> A [short/mid/long term/etc] change in outlook only means that would be better off trading that side (or both sides) thats all.

It doesn't mean that we are going in a vertical line, it doesn't mean that there will be chances to go against the flow, it doesn't mean that there are 1 trillion other potential trades in minor 'TFs'....it just mean that your R:R, W%, your drawdown, your time holding a position, etc etc and more importantly your RISK in general is going to be a lot better if you go with the 'flow'.

If you have been long in this business you will know by now that you don't need to trade every single potential trade and countertrade to succeed (quite the opposite) so if your outlook is shorts and you think the market is way too low to sell ...just let it go and trade something else. You have easily over 2000 asset classes and instruments in front of you to choose from ...why bother trying to look for a "pond to fish in a desert" when you have an "ocean of opportunities" in front of you ....

Quote
I am trying to see how a trader as yourself looks for a place to position yourself. At times, I find that price overshoots where I go in for a position near same levels that no longer hold as well. M

This topic really gets into my nerves. Its the number 1 misconception in these boards: DON'T TRY TO TRADE TO THE EXACT TICK.

--> It DOESNT work like that. 'NOBODY' SUCCESSFUL, trade like that. This is the typical myth from the so call 'scalpers' that have a 15 pip range and they try to gamble the exact entires, exits etc ...

--> The KEY LEVELS for decision to buy & sell and trade in general ARE NEVER THE EXTREMES. You know how many trades were placed at the last test 1.17xx?? Probable not more than a HANDFUL.... REAL money and proper positioning take place in key areas where the noise is, not where only AIR and minions are trading ...

--> Overshoots IS EXACTLY what you want to happen in these areas of trading !!!!. Let the 'minions' and suckers jump on board thinking that is going to fly/drop while you just calmly wait to fade them. ..... if you properly have defined the KEY area and direction FADING the OVERSHOOTS is EXACTLY what you want to do for your entries....

---> So if you are talking about short/mid term swings for example, that 'massive' breakout of these key levels in a H1 wouldnt be even visible as a WICK at the end of the day/week candle .... what I mean is trade your TF and don't 'zoom in' too close from your TF's as you would end up outsmarting yourself and lost in translation...

---> I receive quite often 'complains' and questions about "you said 1.143x.xx etc but the price went to 1.1494.5639202233992112x and thats wrong thats why I prefer to 'scalp' first in micro TFs and etc etc."..my answer is always the same... come back in a few days (if the level is for a short term swing) and let me know if you still think the same ....

On your FED questions ...I already overextended in this reply so lets leave it for later ....


Quoting Xxavier
Thank you Sisse for the work here... I think i passed that stage of understanding when and when not to trade but my issue is impulse trades and when i trade on impulse i go big then you know the rest of the story.... Any suggestion on how to handle impulse trades please??? {quote}
--> Well, not much to say but the obvious: sit in your hands, don't peak at shorter TFs than the one you are trading in key areas, if you really can't control yourself turn off your trading platform and start only looking at charts EOD and marking with notes your exact plan in the chart so next day you have the NOTES in front of you as reminder, ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,470
  • Oct 23, 2015 10:57am Oct 23, 2015 10:57am
breathe sisse...
  • #137,471
  • Oct 23, 2015 10:58am Oct 23, 2015 10:58am
Quoting Pharm0r
breathe sisse...
je je je .... closed office early today ...having a beer...havent don't that in a while

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,472
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:32am Oct 23, 2015 11:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je je .... closed office early today ...having a beer...havent don't that in a while sisse
enjoy
  • #137,473
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:32pm Oct 23, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je je .... closed office early today ...having a beer...havent don't that in a while sisse
Enjoy sisse ... It was a nice week ... Have a nice weekend ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,474
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:35pm Oct 23, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting Pharm0r
breathe sisse...
Hahaha ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,475
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:40pm Oct 23, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> An outlook it just shows you the path of least resistance. --> A [short/mid/long term/etc] change in outlook only means that would be better off trading that side (or both sides) thats all. It doesn't mean that we are going in a vertical line, it doesn't mean that there will be chances to go against the flow, it doesn't mean that there are 1 trillion other potential trades in minor 'TFs'....it just mean that your R:R, W%, your drawdown, your time holding a position, etc etc and more importantly your RISK in general is going to be a lot...
It seems we may get a crazy (almost) no-wick close today on W. In any case I think there will be some consolidation and reatrace at the beginning of the next week (1.108xx maximum). I do not expect this heavy selling to continue going into FED just psychologically + we getting some nice divergencies between Thursday and Friday lows. I hope cuz we need that to potentionally reload for hawkish FED otherwise its gonna be really hard to trade short unless of course someone is short for much above. Which sadly Im not as I closed my shorts at the bottom of the range, i.e. 1,108xx, cuz I thought we would need the power of the FED to break it. Not smart to underestime the power of ECB but I still see it as a rational decision.

Plus just wanna stress the gold-value of the Sisse writting (middle part). There is something absolutely esential about it and it took me a hell of a time and quite some money to at least partly understand it. However, I would never formulate it that well!!! He talks anout not trading the absolute extremes and the problem of looking at too low TFs and I think its all connected with the perception of the moves/swings in time and how they fold into/relate to each other as the price in time can be de-constructed into several levels (long, mid, short, micro). Its extremelly complex to understand it and put down all the consequences but one of them is that its imposibble to trade upper level from looking only at lower level, i.e. to trade short term swings (daily, max 1/2 weeks lets say) from micro level (=e.g. chasing all the micro noise and hoping to get the swing with scalpers stopp loss), mid term from short term and so on.

Have a great evening everyone and cheers to Sisse for his all-week updates in this sooo interesting week.

  • #137,476
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:14pm Oct 23, 2015 4:14pm
...and we rolled with 2 fresh pieces of information ... we pretty much set the High of this Quarter with this close. The FED/W/M roll combo will officially lock the levels all the way down to the 1.14xx handle...

..and 1.097x only level to track for the M roll ...

sisse

Quoting sisse
......and we rolled. Very bearish mid term Q closes in gold and euro. Again this year after a few months we are aligned with fundamentals and we are set for marking the high of this Q rather early [check].

--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell
--> Changing mid term outlook in Gold from Neutral to Sell
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,477
  • Oct 24, 2015 7:43am Oct 24, 2015 7:43am
So if you are talking about short/mid term swings for example, that 'massive' breakout of these key levels in a H1 wouldnt be even visible as a WICK at the end of the day/week candle .... what I mean is trade your TF and don't 'zoom in' too close from your TF's as you would end up outsmarting yourself and lost in translation..

Thanks for that. I will be tattooing this post on my brain as it explains why I have burned through half my account on crap entries for otherwise decent trades, why the successful ones have been no better than lucky, and why I just missed the move I've been waiting on for months.
  • #137,478
  • Oct 24, 2015 9:21am Oct 24, 2015 9:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed thats the only reason we haven't blow 500 tick today after that massive nuke from the ECB. Next week FED kicking the can and the bastards will have a Roman orgy until next year with Equities flying non stop on free money and dollar blowing the currency boards ...until then caution and neutral is the best option short term ... sisse
Hello sisse:

Can you explain what you mean by

“Next week FED kicking the can and the bastards will have a Roman orgy until next year with Equities flying non stop on free money”

Do you mean you expect the rally in US equities to continue and break the highs ?

Also in another post you said “ The FED/W/M roll combo will officially lock the levels all the way down to the 1.14xx handle...”

What is W and what is M ?

And in another post you said
“Technically we have strong mid term signal last Q for a change in outlook mid term, yesterday we have a massive FA blast from the ECB with potential more QE or more cuts by December”

Does FA mean fundamental analysis ?

You have lots of excellent posts.

Thanks
May the Forex be with you.
  • #137,479
  • Oct 25, 2015 6:12am Oct 25, 2015 6:12am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} draw a fib from the 9/23 low to the 9/24 high and look what price did afterwards
you probably noticed that 23.6 % levels. It is roughly 1/4 ... what do you think?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #137,480
  • Oct 25, 2015 6:54am Oct 25, 2015 6:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> An outlook it just shows you the path of least resistance. --> A [short/mid/long term/etc] change in outlook only means that would be better off trading that side (or both sides) thats all. It doesn't mean that we are going in a vertical line, it doesn't mean that there will be chances to go against the flow, it doesn't mean that there are 1 trillion other potential trades in minor 'TFs'....it just mean that your R:R, W%, your drawdown, your time holding a position, etc etc and more importantly your RISK in general is going to be a lot...
Excellent post. Pretty much explains why I gave up on scalping after the first two years of this ongoing trial and error.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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