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  • #137,441
  • Oct 22, 2015 12:09pm Oct 22, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting kill56
{quote} hey cuz great info u had been posting hats off
Thanks !
  • #137,442
  • Edited 12:32pm Oct 22, 2015 12:19pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting sisse
In any case, here we go for another ECB ...

Eyes on 10330.xx [super check]in the DAX as a catalyst for equities across the board. Not expecting much on the fundamental side [wrong...massive news]from the ECB but ears on macro outlook ....
Quote
For the actual flows like usual. All micro level raised. 1.127x floor [check] / 1.139x top for the micro flow. A dovish ECB unlocks the range bottom 1.112x [check] with a easy and tradable break intraday but all eyes are to the other side...

...and thats was it for a super active day with an unexpected card from the ECB that will shake the board until years end.

On the euro, 1.112x easily tested as expected but sadly without me as I was betting on the other side. In contrast, a superb day here in equites with bastards jumping on the more 'free money' wagon with a double whammy across both side of the Atlantic Dax and S&P.

Mark your charts in the Euro and european equities as today we got a massive news for the rest of the year.

All eyes on 1.112x for today's and the W/M closes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,443
  • Oct 22, 2015 12:25pm Oct 22, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Same here roundabouts. Picture starting to look really clear on the pair and DXY too. Draghi put down the hammer so now it's wait and see with real interest until the end of the month. Either an asymmetric play via a dovish FED (meaning sell the highs.) or carnage from both sides. Let's see how DAX, DXY and Fiber continue to play out.
I'm going to play it purely via system until the picture gets clearer. What's bothering me is the counter-weighting of measures, QE on the one hand and rising rates on the other. Scratch one and we'll move one way or the other. They're bastards, you heard it here first in like 2008 or something.
  • #137,444
  • Oct 22, 2015 12:26pm Oct 22, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting kill56
{quote} hey hatchy hope all green and sexy have nothing below 1130's but if taken next 11090's and 11080's
  • #137,445
  • Oct 22, 2015 12:30pm Oct 22, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} I'm going to play it purely via system until the picture gets clearer. What's bothering me is the counter-weighting of measures, QE on the one hand and rising rates on the other. Scratch one and we'll move one way or the other. They're bastards, you heard it here first in like 2008 or something.
Indeed thats the only reason we haven't blow 500 tick today after that massive nuke from the ECB.

Next week FED kicking the can and the bastards will have a Roman orgy until next year with Equities flying non stop on free money and dollar blowing the currency boards ...until then caution and neutral is the best option short term ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,446
  • Oct 22, 2015 12:39pm Oct 22, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} I'm going to play it purely via system until the picture gets clearer. What's bothering me is the counter-weighting of measures, QE on the one hand and rising rates on the other. Scratch one and we'll move one way or the other. They're bastards, you heard it here first in like 2008 or something.
The Euro bastards will be in their own little bubble in relative terms. Either way, do not envy the calls Yellen has to make going forward. Hopefully the last round of US numbers before the statement don't dissapoint.
  • #137,447
  • Oct 22, 2015 1:01pm Oct 22, 2015 1:01pm
ufff ... Watch-out the floor for the closing range in the Euro for a chance of a clean sweep today (long time without one...). Euro getting hammered & dump in mass by everyone across the board with equities about to enter in short term manic mode ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,448
  • Edited 2:05pm Oct 22, 2015 1:04pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting sisse
ufff ... Watch-out the floor for the closing range in the Euro for a chance of a clean sweep today (long time without one...). Euro getting hammered & dump in mass by everyone across the board with equities about to enter in short term manic mode ... sisse
well closing 40~ pips away from 1080 is a little bit silly (if) . can't believe if we break below 1080 tomorrow .
edit : new low 1.1108,6 (28 pips away 1080 )
  • #137,449
  • Oct 22, 2015 2:05pm Oct 22, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting kill56
{quote} hey hatchy hope all green and sexy have nothing below 1130's but if taken next 11090's and 11080's
that's ~100pips below gator's 2008 target... slippage.
Attached Image
  • #137,450
  • Oct 22, 2015 2:06pm Oct 22, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed thats the only reason we haven't blow 500 tick today after that massive nuke from the ECB. Next week FED kicking the can and the bastards will have a Roman orgy until next year with Equities flying non stop on free money and dollar blowing the currency boards ...until then caution and neutral is the best option short term ... sisse
thanks, but is it with rumors about the FED not being able to raise in order not to screw up the whole world?
  • #137,451
  • Oct 22, 2015 2:34pm Oct 22, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} thanks, but is it with rumors about the FED not being able to raise in order not to screw up the whole world?
The FED already shoot themselves in the foot is my reading. Next week will confirm the mistake.

Not only the US but the whole world economy is going to pay a very heavy toll for the lack of action and north from the FED....like always the bastards will be the only ones to make a feast while the party last ...the rest of us mortals may have to pick up the pieces(bill) later and prolly bail them out again ...

Out of the 'emotional' argument from a strictly economic point of view. Today extreme ECB panic view about deflation (and better don't ask what would happen if Oil break down again below 30...) its a very strong symptom/signal on what could happen if the world economy keep depending on CBs free money and negative rates....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,452
  • Oct 22, 2015 3:27pm Oct 22, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} (and better don't ask what would happen if Oil break down again below 30...) its a very strong symptom/signal on what could happen if the world economy keep depending on CBs free money and negative rates.... sisse
someone asked me to ask you what will happen? hehe
  • #137,453
  • Oct 22, 2015 4:10pm Oct 22, 2015 4:10pm
Final update of the day. We are loosing 1.112x for the close unlocking 1.097x which is major momentum line to the downside for the mid term swing to parity...

From strictly technical reasons until the FED announcement changing short term outlook in the Euro (update since the second week September) from NEUTRAL to SELL.

Not much to do here in the Euro after the strong moves. Game changer today, as long as 1.108x holds we are in the same map but it looks very very feeble to say the least. It will need a miracle from the FED to survive a decent test.

Although technically still same levels ...is definitively not same trades and not same all, at all ...Actively looking for positions in the Euro

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,454
  • Oct 22, 2015 4:27pm Oct 22, 2015 4:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} nuts...m/l flatline pa, maybe big dog AMZN and GOOGL earnings will break it out up/down to close the week....
Holy Smokes both of em up 10% or better, big fat green weekly spoos candle can not be denied. Thanks Great Pumpkin. Thanks Obama. Thanks Santa.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,455
  • Oct 22, 2015 6:12pm Oct 22, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting sisse
Final update of the day. We are loosing 1.112x for the close unlocking 1.097x which is major momentum line to the downside for the mid term swing to parity... From strictly technical reasons until the FED announcement changing short term outlook in the Euro (update since the second week September) from NEUTRAL to SELL. Not much to do here in the Euro after the strong moves. Game changer today, as long as 1.108x holds we are in the same map but it looks very very feeble to say the least. It will need a miracle from the FED to survive a decent test....
the swing to 1.17 has cleared the way up imho. We had a decline today because of FED announcement. Since 16th March the attempts to crack parity failed which leads me to the conclusion there is more demand to the euro as expected, wholesale prices I pay attention to are 1.0825 and 1.1080. An crucial game changer would be: no print of parity at all.
  • #137,456
  • Oct 22, 2015 9:42pm Oct 22, 2015 9:42pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} I was concerned because of my LT-view of e/u when I saw the USDX-chart. I checked again and found out that I used a ficklish tool to measure. Here's the more proper one. I miss magnetic snaps to these tools, haven't found it or it's absent from the site. Don't know. My impression was, we are below the 23.6-retracement, but we actually aren't {image}
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Same, if not that then the missed 1.09xx I mentioned some time ago, I'll dig it up when we get closer. Not expecting 113x to hold after the news nuke they dropped, but probably able to get BE before its taken
Been watching it for quite some time.

An elusive little bastard. Wont be surprised at all to tap that lower mofu or overshoot a bit. The momentum is nuts

Think my strategy is wait for the reaction closes, and trade it with a wider stop
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  • #137,457
  • Oct 23, 2015 1:41am Oct 23, 2015 1:41am
Quoting sisse
Final update of the day. We are loosing 1.112x for the close unlocking 1.097x which is major momentum line to the downside for the mid term swing to parity... From strictly technical reasons until the FED announcement changing short term outlook in the Euro (update since the second week September) from NEUTRAL to SELL. Not much to do here in the Euro after the strong moves. Game changer today, as long as 1.108x holds we are in the same map but it looks very very feeble to say the least. It will need a miracle from the FED to survive a decent test....
You going to try and play it off the intraday range with those Euro inflation numbers? Another extended bearish range today for the weekly close will look great and really lock down the highs and dare I say cap the dollar at 96 depending on how dovish Yellen can get.

Funding currencies all being hammered as the appetite for risk intensifies everywhere so some interesting opportunities out there. Feels like Draghi just caused a whole lot of addicts to relapse across the board.
  • #137,458
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:47am Oct 23, 2015 4:47am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} the swing to 1.17 has cleared the way up imho. We had a decline today because of FED announcement. Since 16th March the attempts to crack parity failed which leads me to the conclusion there is more demand to the euro as expected, wholesale prices I pay attention to are 1.0825 and 1.1080. An crucial game changer would be: no print of parity at all.
..I think you meant "because of the ECB announcement not the FED" ...

--> Well since the March FED / mid April when the FED moved to no hikes June/July we have been in mid term Euro outlook Neutral with leg to parity very locked. Only last month on the Q close with the FED aiming for Dec hikes we changed to Euro mid term back to Sell this is from the close last Q back in September:

Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. Very bearish mid term Q closes in goldand euro. Again this year after a few months we are aligned with fundamentals and we are set for marking the high of this Q rather early.

--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell ...
So i don't really see any failed attempts after March because we haven't been aligned for a leg there in the past 6 months.

--> The odds of not testing the lows in the euro (parity its just the expression as the actual target is below) in the mid term are very very slim at least in the current circumstances. The question is not really about if but when.

--> We wont break down to 'parity' without the FED not hiking or the ECB further cutting to negative rates (or more QE) thats for sure.

Technically we have strong mid term signal last Q for a change in outlook mid term, yesterday we have a massive FA blast from the ECB with potential more QE or more cuts by December. On top FED may hike next week (not expected at all) or in DEC.... one of those triggers will be enough to see the lows of the year ....

sisse

---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} You going to try and play it off the intraday range with those Euro inflation numbers? Another extended bearish range today for the weekly close will look great and really lock down the highs and dare I say cap the dollar at 96 depending on how dovish Yellen can get. Funding currencies all being hammered as the appetite for risk intensifies everywhere so some interesting opportunities out there. Feels like Draghi just caused a whole lot of addicts to relapse across the board.
1.108x held steady the European session. Not in a hurry to load for more than intraday trade here as we have the FED M/W combo next week. I agree with your point , 1.112x is last micro breakout. If NY is going to finish the deal today is a quick in and out to the 1.09xx handle (1.097x) for the FED.

Pure greed and based on free money not in economic conditions ...the perfect environment for a quick buck...S&P ticks away from the key 2070.xx right on time for the next rate decision (sadly i barely grabbed some crumbs in the last wave up). From the last FED decision:

Quoting sisse

S&P

$1740.xx (Steel Support) | $1820.xx (very strong) [1830.xx failed by a few points] | $1940.xx (momentum)[check] | $1985.xx [check]

...

---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

A BIG shout @ Fool. Very very well done on that call on equites. All yours and officially you get the traditional BADGE of best CALL of the thread this month !!!.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,459
  • Oct 23, 2015 5:07am Oct 23, 2015 5:07am
Quoting kill56
hi alll make sure u are lubed well sisse u still the king of FA oh shitt still watching u buts no time had a surgery and working from bed
...Hope you get better soon Sir. Kill56....
The Chonchy
  • #137,460
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:05am Oct 23, 2015 7:05am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..I think you meant "becau....
Hi , Sisse , that is this PBOC rate cut , and how this is gonna affect FED and ECB .... already gold jumped about 8 USD , but there are
no major moves in EUR,GBP,YEN .
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