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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,401
  • Oct 21, 2015 12:41pm Oct 21, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Lately, crude falling has been bad for SP500. Crude is the canary there. {image} Edit: On the pic, Crude is the filled in larger candlesticks. SP500 the others.
Hmm I see.... Is there a fundamental reason in terms of money flow you could enlighten me on?
  • #137,402
  • Oct 21, 2015 12:48pm Oct 21, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting roobii
Can someone tell me the correlation between SP500 and Oil? i see as SP500 is dropping... oil is too. Is that coincidence?
Long-term comparison.
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  • #137,403
  • Oct 21, 2015 12:59pm Oct 21, 2015 12:59pm
Quoting roobii
{quote} Hmm I see.... Is there a fundamental reason in terms of money flow you could enlighten me on?
I'm not an expert on crude by any means. Some of the fundamental reasons I'm aware of (which may be paltry, I just don't know):
1. When crude goes down, the crude & energy producing companies do too.
2. Also, the financial companies providing the financing to those crude & energy companies.
3. Crude is believed to go down primarily b/c of less demand, which means that the economy is slowing, which means other companies have lower earnings.

...that's all I have off the top of my head.
defense wins championships
  • #137,404
  • Oct 21, 2015 1:33pm Oct 21, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting The Fool
looking for the SnP to catch up with the Dow today, I can see a close @ 2040 or better if it does
nuts...m/l flatline pa, maybe big dog AMZN and GOOGL earnings will break it out up/down to close the week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,405
  • Oct 21, 2015 3:39pm Oct 21, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Equities held again today ... all yours so far. It will take a decisive break up the current highs to make accept defeat and make me forget that this rally smell fishy very fishy ...it still does ...lets see in the next few sessions...until then well done and enjoy the ride... sisse
Hats off to anyone who managed to trade the US500 today in any way cuz the PA was pretty crazy or/and to those who are short from the top. I did short yesterday at the top of the range but got stopped out when the price overshot :/ anyways, what is your interpretation of the close, sisse? u mentioned the level 2020,xx many times and we got it under + the look of the candle - all really bearish however, equities are one nasty hell to trade for me so i really wonder how to trade this potentional leg down to 1790
  • #137,406
  • Oct 21, 2015 5:18pm Oct 21, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hats off to anyone who managed to trade the US500 today in any way cuz the PA was pretty crazy or/and to those who are short from the top. I did short yesterday at the top of the range but got stopped out when the price overshot :/ anyways, what is your interpretation of the close, sisse? u mentioned the level 2020,xx many times and we got it under + the look of the candle - all really bearish however, equities are one nasty hell to trade for me so i really wonder how to trade this potential leg down to 1790 ...
Simple profit taking day in equities on the opening range. Bearish close with the train not full anymore. 1965/7.xx is capping the move till the FED later this month. 1790.xx is locked short term and we wont trade below without a risk off leg at least until OCT FED decision.

ECB for the moves in Euro and Gold that are 'al dente', Equities just major clearing & positioning for next week tradable for the swing if you are not in with the break 2020.xx until the W close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,407
  • Oct 21, 2015 5:33pm Oct 21, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Wasn't following, but it's still there {image}
Can you please show us what move this is based on, like you did with Silver the other day. Thanks in advance.
  • #137,408
  • Oct 21, 2015 7:47pm Oct 21, 2015 7:47pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Can you please show us what move this is based on, like you did with Silver the other day. Thanks in advance.
draw a fib from the 9/23 low to the 9/24 high and look what price did afterwards
  • #137,409
  • Oct 21, 2015 9:08pm Oct 21, 2015 9:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} draw a fib from the 9/23 low to the 9/24 high and look what price did afterwards
Great! All targets met. How long do the levels of these moves remain viable?

Hatch's 18334 must have been based on another move, I can't replicate it from the 9/23 to 9/24 move. Can you?
  • #137,410
  • Edited 2:46am Oct 22, 2015 2:33am | Edited 2:46am
Sisse,

If the SNB doesn't like the CHF being too strong (resulting in them intervening and buying euros to keep the CHF down/stable)
what will happen when the EUR eventually goes to parity or lower?

Doesn't that create a new problem for the SNB?

How will the other EZ members respond to the ever-increasing CHF export prices that the swiss economy have been trying to keep down and EZ-friendly?

I'm assuming the rest of the EZ will import less if swiss import prices double, which isn't good for the SNB,
but what can the SNB do?

Surely they wouldn't keep try to push the EUR/CHF up by buying truck loads of euros at 1.0, 0.9, 0.8 ?
(or would they do whatever it takes?)

Do they even have any spanners left in their so called 'economic toolkit'?

Perhaps they would happily spend some of their 450 billion reserve francs to keep the euro from falling too far?
  • #137,411
  • Edited 5:14am Oct 22, 2015 5:00am | Edited 5:14am
...and that was it for the morning. Yawning sessions in the Euro this week but now we are ready to start the week with ECB.

Positive numbers from Europe this morning with Spain steadily turning things around (second quarter in a row that Spain keeps printing good numbers from all sectors....) so tracking closely ECB comments on the macroeconomic outlook as they can, for the first time this year, have a slight Euro positive impact (negative rates and QE will prime obviously but Euro strength hasn't been in play for almost a year !!!).

--> Gold and Euro look ready and 'cook' for a decent move before next week FED announcement. While OIL is on the brink one more time (losing 45.7x this month will unlock the lows ...) and Equities are sitting in key flip area to unlock the floor for the FED announcement.

--> For those trading/tracking OIL from the 49.xx handle (@ Pharm0r...i hope you grabbed some of the trading range the last few days) is very healthy clearing ($45.5x) & trailing time as the continuation down and/or start of the short term retrace leg will be heavily dependant on equities both from Europe & US.

--> On Euro and Gold last call for a cheap ticket for those aiming for the capitulation leg up with the 'all week long' 1.135x (1180 in gold) as mini rain maker for the ECB play.

--> On equities, 2020.xx is THE only level in play for the W roll and positioning for the FED move. For those positioned early for the swing from yesterday opening range (2033.xx) breakdown is 'sitting v tight time'. A push from the ECB to European Equites will carry the board until Frankfurt goes home....

Active trading expected starting today until next week for the FED/W/M roll combo.

GL all trading the next few sessions... Here all cards on the table so not much to see until the news with same Levels, same Trades, same All....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,412
  • Edited 6:57am Oct 22, 2015 6:45am | Edited 6:57am
Nothing here but the easiest EU technical trades sisse, working on this business plan (which is essentially 3 in 1), research, meetings, and as always school + full time job.

Just checking in to see if there's any morsels and what people are talking about......habit more than anything else
  • #137,413
  • Oct 22, 2015 7:28am Oct 22, 2015 7:28am
Quoting Pharm0r
Nothing here but the easiest EU technical trades sisse, working on this business plan (which is essentially 3 in 1),research, meetings, and as always school + full time job. Just checking in to see if there's any morsels and what people are talking about......habit more than anything else
Sounds pretty much as proper trading to me (much better than the machine gun approach ) ...

---- ----

In any case, here we go for another ECB ...

Eyes on 10330.xx in the DAX as a catalyst for equities across the board. Not expecting much on the fundamental side from the ECB but ears on macro outlook to ignite the first rally on the euro based on the Euro strength alone.

For the actual flows like usual. All micro level raised. 1.127x floor / 1.139x top for the micro flow. A dovish ECB unlocks the range bottom 1.112x with a easy and tradable break intraday but all eyes are to the other side. A tick above 1.14xx unlocks the highs and beyond. 1.135x the rain maker...

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,414
  • Oct 22, 2015 7:34am Oct 22, 2015 7:34am
...and thats pretty much it .... Bearish ECB with a v. poor outlook ...inflation inline ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,415
  • Oct 22, 2015 7:44am Oct 22, 2015 7:44am
shies ...wow what a comment from Draghi in the last question ...we are going for a full blown QE increase .... Wathchout bastards riding the PIG in equites and euro to wipeout soft bulls ...thats was unexpected ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,416
  • Oct 22, 2015 7:55am Oct 22, 2015 7:55am
Quoting sisse
shies ...wow what a comment from Draghi in the last question ...we are going for a full blown QE increase .... Wathchout bastards riding the PIG in equites and euro to wipeout soft bulls ...thats was unexpected ... sisse
And now he answered the potentional rate cut - hmm, actually increase into the negative teritory - as a possible intrument.... I think its hard to imagine anything more dovish than this conference
  • #137,417
  • Oct 22, 2015 7:58am Oct 22, 2015 7:58am
Quoting chester123
{quote} And now he answered the potentional rate cut - hmm, actually increase into the negative teritory - as a possible intrument.... I think its hard to imagine anything more dovish than this conference
...it has been an unbelievable bearish conference. ... and you know when they go in a live conference for 5 minutes explaining super academic technicalities to make the point on inflation... you know something is really wrong ...

ECB more or less is shitting its pants about inflation ....unlocked further negative rates and increase in QE !!!...on top unlike the FED, they are being 'explicit' that even they discussed today ....wow

Game changer ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,418
  • Edited 8:20am Oct 22, 2015 8:08am | Edited 8:20am
sisse,

I usually just read your posts, absorb and try and learn what you are saying as I always respect your outlook and comments. Due to this "game changer" would you reel in the micro levels to 1350 ceiling and 1180 as floor for a while or a deeper floor at this point?

And, trying to find correlation with EU. Recently, ES (S&P Futures) was a gauge in recent days but thinking this ECU decision is going to change things? I am trying to find a better tool to correlate EU with now since it appears certain for a QE increase for EU. Of course, I thought originally inflation was inline so I am confused as to why the latter comments.

Always appreciative of your view and levels to watch.

All the best!
  • #137,419
  • Oct 22, 2015 8:10am Oct 22, 2015 8:10am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...it has been an unbelievable bearish conference. ... and you know when they go in a live conference for 5 minutes explaining super academic technicalities to make the point on inflation... you know something is really wrong ... ECB more or less is shitting its pants about inflation ....unlocked further negative rates and increase in QE !!!...on top unlike the FED, they are being 'explicit' that even they discussed today ....wow Game changer .... sisse
Hi sisse,
are we heading to 1.089x?
  • #137,420
  • Oct 22, 2015 8:10am Oct 22, 2015 8:10am
First updates after the very juicy conference ...

--> Changing short term outlook in European Equities from Neutral to Buy
--> Changing short term outlook in Oil from Neutral to Sell (that can become in strong sell if FED gives a hand next weekO)

Euro, Gold and currencies pairs with Dollar no changes in outlook yet as FED is in play next week and Dollar has preference (at least until next meeting).

sisse

Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi sisse, are we heading to 1.089x?
Today why?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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