Hyperion's Notebook

Current position, long Spot AUD/JPY and NOK/JPY and long an AUD/USD Call, 7850 2 weeks with Reverse Knock-out .8050, cost 19 pips.

Really like AUD/JPY higher if for no other reason than the gap that has to close when over laid on MOO Index....

Then you have the USD/JPY lagging the TOPIX (Japanese Banks Index). What's not to love being long AUD/JPY I ask you!

Then the AUD/USD over BHP... again surely the gap has to close?

...and with the NOK, it's been smashed against the Euro for obvious reasons... and it's a nice, soft way of being long Crude (if that's your view and I accept that it may not be)

Below is the NOK over Crude Oil.

Also when it comes t the Aussie, the IMM open interest paints a disturbing story for shorts. No one is long (blue line) and the shorts (red line) well lets just say it's been a great party but they must have their eyes on the exit door and be creeping towards it. This is why I am looking for a correction in the AUD/USD and when you add this to the MOO chart above etc I find it pretty compelling, plus Capflow has changed to "take buy triggers"

So, off on vacation this Saturday for a week+ leaving the spot open, (entries are miles away) and the options expires the day after I come back. I want to add onto both the AUD/JPY and NOK/JPY at some point. Make it a long term campaign type affair hopefully.

Fulcrum support or Head and Shoulders? Only takes 60 pips to find out if I buy it...

Aussie Channel + 100% Fibo level reached. (still talking my book)

Capflow change in EUR to sell, shame it came so late., GBP also.

USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain blue/buy but the Comdols are both hanging by a thread.

Gold remains Sell.

Comdols turned Red overnight = Sell triggers now for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

Hyperion,

Long time no see. It's great to see your at it and crushing AUD. I have moved on to going long dollar's but still watch AUD with great interest. Great to the point thread I will follow for sure.

Hi Mate,
Thanks for your message, nice to see you again. I've been a bit bad at updating this recently, so busy with trading and my work.
You know how it is, always discovering new things, refining old things, trying to improve all the time! Best wishes. Hype.

Long term NZD/AUD extremes indicator.

Like Vanilla USD/JPY Puts 123 Strike till Friday Tokyo Cut for about 40 pips. Covers FOMC and BOJ.

Capflow is saying USD/JPY down and with the positioning I think any down-move could have some legs...

'been a while... I should use this to keep a track of the charts I am looking at.

USD/JPY, Red Line = Long USD/JPY small specs on CME.
A rally in USD/JPY has always followed a pullback in their Open Interest.
Current Open Interest is as low as the period preceding the rally from Y80.
Indicates a good set-up for the start of a new up leg perhaps?

Hats off to DB for the positioning info they publish drawn from observations of the trades of their users.

The red line below the AUD/USD chart is the Short Positioning of the small (odd lot) speculators on the CME futures contract.
Their habits all year have been to increase their shorts after any reduction in their positions. (Usually they reduce their shorts as the currency rallies. Then put them back on again)

I expect they will short this market again and this selling will drive the AUD/USD down once more. Each previous occasion has resulted in 200 to 300 pts.

Note these are margined / short term players and whilst there are reasons to think the AUD has found support from some very long term trend lines (Aussie TWI for instance) I still think shorting the AUD is the way to go for now. 4Hrly closes above 7350 would prove me wrong.

Also, XAU/USD naked chart, giving me multiple sell signals plus Capflow has just turned Red (sell). Stop loss at 1182 for now.

Nice to see the journal in action mate!