Hyperion's Notebook

Have 100% hedged my EUR Puts. I don't like the universal US$ Bullishness I hear from everyone at present. Tonight is a coin flip though...
If EUR/USD DOES rally I will still look for a sell trigger. I hope that will be in the 1.0980 area though.

I am holding USD/JPY long spot because I would hate to "miss out" on a new up leg... this cross owes me!

Happy days, closed long USD/JPY for 212 pts.
Actually traded pretty poorly given last week my views where short kiwi, aussie and EUR as well!
Now flat and waitig for either a 100 to 150 pts rally to look for a sell trigger in any of the above three, or looking for signs we are in a vertical move that demands "go with" action with close stops... Let's see...

DB's George Saravelos in Sept wrote saying the potential decline / reversal in Central Bank buying of Currencies against the US$ could result in massive US$ strength against everything. Out of an estimated 10 trillion in volume over the last decade, every 100 bill "unwind" is worth 3 BIG FIGURES off the EUR/USD. He calls it The End of the Great Accumulation"... Probably a good template for one's underlying view going forward.

However from here these are my current projected rally points from where I will look for sell triggers.

NZD/USD 6620, AUD/USD .7130, EUR/USD 1.0970 and Buying a dip in USD/JPY if we see 121.50.

Chart update.

AUD/USD short position growing again.

EUR/USD 2 yr interest rate spread suggests back in alignment now.

USD/JPY Chart update.

Long Only exposure on the way back driving this up move.

Final thoughts for this week... I am keenly watching the inside day formations on EUR and Kiwi in case this actually is a vertical down-move. I will go with downside breaks using 15 min chart with close stops. If they break up instead I will leave it because Capflow is red (sell) everywhere and I would then look for the up move to reach my previously mentioned sell area targets.

I crack myself up sometimes. I've just bought the NZD/USD and EUR/USD!
These are complete non method trades. Just call it a creative outlet.
I think we will see a decent bounce first, then great selling levels again.
I have bought 1 week calls 6600 with 6800 RKO and EUR 10800 with 11000 RKO, 15 and 25 pips respectively.

Daily IB's now on Kiwi and Aussie... EUR/USD Daily IB down ATM but if 1.0790 that's a failure and can rally to me target level. EUR/US target sell level now reduced to 1.0920 due to new low last night.

USD/JPY downside looks interesting now. Maybe a Psycho top, a good 4hrly close below 122.90 should probably be sold into opening the way for the move to the projected low point. That is lifted to 121.70 now.

Have just sold USD/JPY 123.07...

Daily IB on Kiwi was interesting. It broke down on RBNZ comments but couldn't even close a 15 min bar below the previous day's lows.... Up she goes (yes I'm talking my book)

Capflow change from Buy USD/JPY to SELL USD/JPY as of right now. This gives me more conviction in the shorts I placed yesterday. Successful Daily IB (Down) as well.
Capflow on Aussie still very Red but I still feel like there's a good bounce higher coming, and Capflow in the EUR is turning around fast from Sell to Buy (not yet but only one buying day away from turning)

Open positions, Short USD/JPY Spot 123.07 and Long Kiwi and Euro Calls.

Hmmm, do you Buy BHP or Sell AUD/USD (or both)....

Language used by people who sell the EUR/USD on the lows "People don't have this trade on yet"
Language used by people who are buying the dip "The EUR/USD is over sold"
Hehe, all I know is the EUR/USD looks bid and I like the look of my 1.0800 Calls.
To be fair, judging by DB CORAX indicators released this morning, the leveraged community are not all that short EUR, whilst Asset managers are.
But that doesn't mean the leveraged players will join the shorts who are new to the strong Dollar party... yet...

Visual fractal pretty cool http://i.imgur.com/OiZ4QUx.gif

USD/JPY left high and dry as TOPIX falls with S&P...

Long term AUD/USD... makes it hard to be short?

I have never seen such bearish sentiment among the people I talk to in Kiwi and Aussie dollars... yet I own calls in Kiwi (and EUR). Yes the dairy auction next week will be a shocker but that's known judging by milk futures... The chart looks constructive for higher prices for me (AUD and NZD) Risk off could weigh though. However I think I will continue fading this bearish sentiment extreme... As a Market Wizard once said there is nothing better for a trade than seeing a price which is NOT confirming a consensus!

Closed USD/JPY shorts on this pop lower on the open. 122.35

Unsure if that's the right thing to do but it's been pretty slow and 72 pts is 72 points...
Left with Kiwi and EUR Call which don't look great anymore.

I'll update my systems and create a plan for this week.

Capflow still Red (just) for Kiwi, Aussie and EUR
That means weekly high targets to look for sell triggers are now at:

NZD 6610
AUD 7148
EUR 1.0830

USD/JPY Capflow is also in sell mode but I'm not going to bother unless I get a pattern to back it up.

Pretty boring state. Patience required, might play with the London Gold Fix Strategy...