Hyperion's Notebook

Just Bought AUD/USD .7095

I am usually way too early on subjects of positioning but the lack of interest in Long AUD is the lowest it's been since the dark days of the GFC.
I realise the reasons to be short are compelling but aren't they all "known"?

Aussie Dollar over Blackrock Commodity Fund

Aussie 100% Fibo reached (very long term...)

Aussie... lastly Capflow is turning fast. It's never a good idea to pre-empt the turn (even though I have in buying the Aussie yesterday).
As soon as Capflow confirms buy I will be adding on with every new buy trigger.

A move into this zone would turn Capflow to "Buy"

Capflow turns Black (Buy) in AUD/USD. US$ Bull case looking shakey now but maybe just a healthy correction to shake off the newcomers to the party.

Holding Long AUD/USD from .7095. Want to add.

Sold USD/CHF 1.0175. Stop at new highs 1.0230.
Not a system trade but couldn't resist.

Note to self: You are still very US$ Bullish and are only trading a correction.

Gonna hold Long AUD/USD from 7095 and Short USD/CHF from 1.1075.
Capflow is Buy for sure now and I think this US$ unwind can travel further given the language I am hearing from the US$ Bulls holding positions that are under water.

Close Long Aussie just now .7233 for gain of 138 pips and closed Short USD/CHF 1.0188 for 13 pip loss.

I have bought EUR/USD here at 1.0634
Capflow is still red but i HAS to fall tonight to stay red. Tomorrow is turns buy big time if it doesn't go down.
I like being early, especially when everyone around me is so bearish. It;s the same trade as the one I closed in the USD/CHF earlier I know but I feel OK about it again.
I have a disaster stop at 1.0530 at the moment.

Just sold USD/JPY at 122.80. Good psycho pattern, Capflow neutral. Looks like a failed Up inside daily bar too.

...and Bought Kiwi against US$. at 6520.... Have to be careful because my rule is only 20 trades per month...

Rap sheet last few trades from one live account.

Stopped out of Long EUR/USD at 1.0589 for -46 pips.
Why did I buy it? Because I second guessed Capflow turning... Tell me where it turned black apart from one brief print yesterday?

I saw a piece somewhere which pointed to seasonality in the AUD in December so I had a look myself.
Hmmm, pretty picture though.

Closed USD/JPY shorts at 122.86 for 6 pips loss. It had three attempts to trade lower and failed. These trades need to move and get on with it or exit.
Holding Long Kiwi for now.

Have just bought a EUR 1.0700 Call to NY Cut this Friday with Reverse Knock Out at 1.1000 - Cost 21 pips.
It's just a cheap "disappointment trade". ECB has heaps in the way of expectations to live up to.

Just closed Kiwi Longs at .6628... +108 pts.

Left just with the EUR/USD RKO Call....

Loving this vol!

Just sold USD/CHF at 1.0264. Stop at 1.0360 for now.

Capflow is a sell. Small Psycho sell pattern, thru 1.0250 and we get a daily down IB...

Sold USD/JPY at 123.01.
Still short USD/CHF.

Capflow on both is supportive.