Hyperion's Notebook

Now I've talked myself into selling USD/JPY on stop at 102.00, S/L 102.30, target new lows...

And just to remind me of by bias

...and finally, I have apologised to the Gods for getting bullish EUR on Monday already, this 2 yr int rate differential chart says stay with a short bias.

Projected Ranges for July Week 2.

Last week, AUD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY travelled the suggested ranges, Kiwi did nothing and Gold and EUR/JPY only respected one side of the range.

This week I favour taking sell triggers in everything, sell AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and XAU/USD.

I think some of these markets might get vertical to the downside and doubt they will get close to the highs of he Projected Ranges.

Have added to short USD/JPY here, looks like it will at least do the projected weekly range, and my Capitalflow stuff says stay short anyway. Stops brought down to 101.87 on whole position.

Still holding long USD/CHF. Stops brought up to 8907.

I'm getting very bearish USD/JPY... want to add more shorts. Below is the Japanese banks (TOPIX) Index signalling nice double top, breakdown, USD/JPY should follow.

Projected Ranges for July Week 3.

Last week they nailed the highs and lows in the USD/JPY, NZD/USD and Gold.
This week I favour taking sell triggers in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY.
I would be on the lookout for a break down in the USD/JPY and join it below 101.00

Position update.
Short USD/JPY 5 units average 101.65
Long USD/CHF 4 units average .8925
Short AUD/USD 4 units average .9359 (put all on yesterday afternoon)
Just sold 4 units EUR/USD at market 1.3518

Projected Ranges for July Week 4

I prefer selling strageties in AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY (favourite trade short EUR/JPY)

Projected Ranges for July Week 5.
Again there is little value is using a ranging tool during a vertical market.

I Still favour selling strategies in AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
Obviously Kiwi and Euro played the game last week, hopefully Aussie will play catch up and fall through 9300 some day soon.
The only reason to stay with selling rallies in USD/JPY is I want to be short already for the un-wind of the long position which should dump it to 96 ish.
Maybe I should concentrate on shorting AUD/JPY this week.

Still holding long USD/CHF and Short EUR/USD and USD/JPY from above. Stopped out of short AUD/USD above. will revisit.

Am closing all Long USD/CHF and Short EUR/USD right here right now. .9067 and 1.3409.
Potentially the end of an ABCD move.

Projected Ranges for August Week 1
I have to admit I am not getting much value from these projections but will churn them out a bit more.

It feels to me like Buy triggers should be taken in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, and sell triggers in USD/JPY.

I guess my favourite trade would be long EUR/USD, enter on stop at 1.3440, stop at 1.3365 initially.

Experiment time.

Mostly you will read "I look at the larger time frame for direction/bias, then drill down to take trades in sympathy with that trend on a smaller timeframe"... or words to that effect.

Being contrary by nature I am going to trial the inverse of that.

I will enter a trade on the smaller timeframe, then expand out to the larger to try and ensure I run that trade for all it's worth.

Forget about why, but I will enter a long if the EUR/USD trades through 1.3440. Risk 80 pts.
My aim is to add on if it moves favourably and ONLY exit based on a signal bought about via the DAILY chart.
That is key.
Here goes nothing...

I'm leaving the buy stop above working but added a lower one now.

4hrly chart below shows reasonable adherence to the Projected Weekly low from last Monday (see above)

Also on the Daily my Capflow model has flicked to Long. Need a decent trigger to confirm taking longs with any commitment such as an successful inside daily bar.

Projected Ranges August Week 2

My bias is firmly to the upside in EUR/USD, and I think Kiwi and Aussie. Looking for more downside in USD/JPY.
I would like a little more price action to go full noise long EUR/USD and I think I will have that by this time Tuesday.

Capflow chart for EUR below. I never know how long the box change will last but it has changed to Blue (Buy).
As I said above I would like a bit more PA to confirm going full noise pedal to the metal long and just have to be patient meantime.
Small unit size on the buy stop is just a toe in the water for now.

Hey, could you explain in layman's terms the capflow model?? Looks interesting to me.

Hi Mate, sure, It's just a graphical representation of a model I run based on the intraday price action of the IMM currency futures (only the pit session).
There are some very objective definitions I use from..... Actually I think I'll message you my answer!
I have been accused of drawing these boxes in hindsight (I know you wouldn't do that) and I can't be bothered defending them. Standby....

Thanks, sounds a little advanced for me. lol Good stuff.