Hyperion's Notebook

Capflow:
EUR/USD = Black (don't be short, look for long triggers)
AUD/USD = Red (take any short triggers)
USD/JPY = Red (Don't be long, take short triggers)

Projected Weekly Ranges

EUR/USD 1.2972 to 1.3127
AUD/USD 1.0173 to 1.0335
USD/JPY 97.90 to 100.44

Potential big picture view of Aussie. 10 yr int diff is 130 bps, 100 bps is the tipping point for a big fall in the AUD in the past.

Hmmmm..... must look at why I get lazy regarding journal when trading is going great.....

Chart update just because it worked out so well... conveniently ignore the many dumb trades I did in the same period....

Projected Weekly Ranges for March Week 2.

Note to self: ONLY take sell or buy triggers in the top / bottom third of these projected ranges.

EUR/USD 1.3758 - 1.3942 (184 PTS)

USD/JPY 101.57 - 103.72 (215 PTS)

AUD/USD .8919 - .9131 (212 PTS)

EURJPY 140.12 - 144.04 (392 PTS)

XAU/USD 1334.27 - 1362.09 (27.80 PTS)

CapFlow for March Week 2
Note to self: Only use for added conviction on any triggers that evenuate around level above.

AUD/USD Medium strong Buy Aussie
USD/JPY Medium strong sell Yen
EUR/USD Mixed
XAU/USD Medium strong Buy Gold

Monthly Projected Range for March 2014

AUD 8660 - 9023
EUR 13535 - 13880
JPY 10075 - 10338
E/J 13663 - 14252

Selling EUR/JPY on stop @ 142.75 with a 100 pt stop. Hoping for a rotation back to the bottom of the projected weekly range.

Capflow AUD/USD changing to med/strong down.

I guess Aussie is just travelling to the bottom of the range 8919 however if and it's only if we have seen the high for the week then the projected range of 212 pts takes us to 8851...

Holding short EUR/JPY from stop entry above.
Also just bought a NZD Put, USD Call, 8450 strike for three weeks, Double Knock Outs 8510 and 8250 cost 9 pips...
9 pips is way less cost than if I sold spot and had a stop at 8510...
Not a system trade, just like the daily chart, divergence and 4 hrly set up.

Away at a cold wet and windy race track from last Thurs till now so bit out of touch.
Well and truely knocked out of the Kiwi Put option for a lost of 9 pips.
Banked half EUR/JPY short at 142.10 and balance at 140.98.
Now working out this week's projected ranges.

Projected Ranges for March Week 3

EUR/USD 1.3853 - 1.4008 115 pts

USD/JPY 101.12 - 103.23 211 pts

AUD/USD .8923 - .9109 186 pts

EUR/JPY 140.50 - 143.80 330 pts

XAU/USD 1344.40 - 1393.02 48.62 pts

(Use above levels as a guide to initiate trades or take triggers. e.g. Took sell trigger when EUR/JPY was in top end of projected range last week.)

Last week missed long trigger (as I was away) in AUD/USD. Thankfully never got a sell trigger in XAU because it busted out the top.

Graphic of past two and current preojected weekly ranges.

XAU/USD and AUD/USD have touched the weekly range projected highs. EUR in the middle USD/JPY looking near the bottom obviously. Hopeing for the Aussie to travel lower now but either way Gold was the best move.

Happy days, AUD back down, USD/JPY up, Gold has travelled the whole projected range (and then some).

So last week Gold traveled the whole range, AUD had a reasonable dip from just above the PR while YEN poped up from the PR low. EUR didn't perform and dropped out the bottom. Here's this weeks numbers with graphic.

Projected Ranges March Week 4

EUR/USD 1.3762 - 1.3952 (190 pts)

USD/JPY 101.09 - 102.86 (177 pts)

AUD/USD .8995 - .9165 (170 pts)

EUR/JPY 140.17 - 142.55 (238 pts)

XAU/USD 1325.15 - 1387.49 (62.34 pts)

Midweek update, we have Aussie at the top of the PR, now looking for a sell trigger, EUR has twice bounced off the PR low while the Yen in languishing in the middle - don't touch. Gold is a slight problem child, I have had buy triggers twice but it's not lifting. We'll see. If I get a good trigger in the Aussie I think it will be the trade of the week. New observation: An effective trigger appears to be as simple as a close above/below the 5 EMA when at the PR extremes.

Projected Weekly Ranges for March Week 4