Hyperion's Notebook

So Last week was a bit messy. However thankfully no sell triggers in AUD. Kiwi range was good, gold out the bottom and sadly with buy triggers - small loss. Here's this week's graphic.

Monthly PR for April

Nice sell trigger given in AUD/USD, would like it nearer top of PR for the week but as we are near the monthly PR happy to take it. No triggers anywhere else but Gold looking interesting, looking for a long trigger... patience.

Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Projected Ranges for April Week 3

Sell triggers given in aussie (9395). kiwi (8655) euro (1.3817) and gold on stop 1316 (last 1320).
50 pip stops on all FX. 10 bucks on gold.

Projected Ranges April Week 4

My feeling is it will be very hard for kiwi, aussie and euro to get anywhere near the PR highs... yes I'm bearish on them famous last words. But sell triggers in all the pairs mentioned in the last post are still active. Hold them and add on when they break down more.

Projected Weekly Ranges for April Week 5

Projected Weekly Ranges for May Week 1.
Last week the EUR/USD was a standout, traveling the PR about 3.5 times, Kiwi behaved doing one range while JPY only respected the range top as did Gold. Gold nearly did the whole range.

Projected Ranges for Week 2 May. I would be interested in sell triggers for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD NZD/USD and XAU/USD.

Projected Ranges for May Week 3. My bias is to take sell triggers in AUD/USD, NZD/USD, XAU/USD and USD/JPY and strong conviction in short EUR/USD triggers.

Projected Ranges for May Week 4.

I continue to take sell triggers in kiwi, Aussie and Euro all against US$. USD/JPY is in buy trigger mode since the failed break down last week.

Projected Weekly Ranges for June Week 1

My view is for a lower EUR/USD and NZD/USD so take sell triggers there.
Same with AUD/USD but my readings are a bit mixed here.
Leave XAU/USD alone.
USD/JPY is telling me to buy it but the longs are very stale and until we break this old 101 – 102.50 range I wouldn’t play it.
So a little muddled for the start of the week, probably stick to short EUR/USD ideas.
One a different note GBP/USD downside looks very interesting too.

My projected weekly ranges for this week.

My systems are telling me to keep taking Sell triggers in NZD/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD. Buy triggers in USD/JPY.

Hat tip to the PR formula for nailing it last week in the Euro and Kiwi.

Projected Ranges for June Week 3.

Only bright spot for the PR last week was EUR/USD and EUR/JPY (Both top to bottom)

PR’s were very wrong footed on the Kiwi and Aussie but no sell triggers seen/given anyway.

For this week I still favour taking sell triggers in EUR/USD. I worry about USD/JPY seeing more downside if Y101.55 is taken out convincingly and anyway there are too many Yen bears that think short Yen owes them a living.

Kiwi Dollar I would sell a break down through .8630 if we see it and similarly with the AUD/USD I would sell a break of .9360. These would be good triggers I believe.

In response to a question to me on a different thread I reply here.

This is a comment on my thoughts about original Market Profile as presented (invented?) by JPSteidlmeyer versus any other attempt at explaining it (Dalton and others). I realise the "others" have a big following but JPS is the originator, traded it successfully on the floor of the CBOT and taught his kids to do the same. I personally find value in the way he describes it and find most others miss the point. They try to de-construct the patterns and revert the bell curve concept back to a bar chart type format. (Dalton rotation factor for example which has nothing to do with market profile and a fixation on 3I days.. I doubt the other authors are traders like JPS but I don't have any proof of that. So they try and change it from the original concept and overlay standard bar chart thinking on it. JPS (generously) basically gave the concept to the CBOT and everyone else has tried to build a money making business out of books and courses on it. Meanwhile he kept trading the markets using it and further developing the concept with what he called "Capital Flow", which no one like Dalton etc have been able to grasp and run with. Hence my scepticism.

This is just my view and I accept others may differ. The only reason I frequent FF is for the banter that I used to get on a trading floor. Positive or negative, constructive or not, the two and fro of people trying to prove their view right adds colour and opens my eyes to some things I might have missed. Other than that I have no interest in proving my point further.

Lastly JPS is his own worst enemy when it comes to publicising himself hence his original theories gained little traction compared to the pretenders who have built a business out of it. However if anyone is interested, my views are formed from reading his books on the subject which are Markets and Market Logic, Steidlmeyer, A New Approach to Trading, 141 West Jackson, A Journey Through Trading Discoveries and New Market Discoveries which he wrote with his daughter. The last one is in my opinion the best book ever written on trading.

Thankfully, hardly anyone uses the correct theory, partly because it takes work to understand it, partly because it can't be automated, you have to do the work and take the responsibility. However, it's fair to say that most floor traders I have known agree that they subconsciously traded in agreement with Market Profile (before it was revealed by JPS) and JPS successfully put into a graphic the way their minds viewed the markets. I say thankfully, because I consider these concepts part of my edge and personally I am happy with the seeming obsession among private traders to stick to MT4 type indicators / thinking.
Banks have for decades hired astro-physicists and the like to try and code systems, I don't think I could ever compete for profits against that with the same tools.

Ramble ends

Projected ranges for this week attached.
Last week most currencies respected at least one end of the range, EUR/USD was a standout.
This week I still prefer taking sell triggers in EUR/USD and would also like to see some in AUD and NZD.
As an aside, GBP/JPY looks interesting for contrarians, a very “long” market in Sterling and a stale old Short Yen position.
I think any sell triggers in GBP/JPY could turn into a large down move.

Last weeks Projected Ranges picked the Kiwi and Aussie highs and lows well, Euro, Gold and EUR/JPY respected the PR highs, Yen broke the lows.
My Capital Flow analysis suggests taking Long triggers in the EUR/USD now (this is a change), Aussie and Kiwi are mixed, USD/JPY lower, Gold unsure.

Positioning wise, data suggests the biggest long positions are in AUD, NZD and GBP so surely these pairs are vulnerable. Also I have a suspicion that the USD/JPY is about to un-wind. This un-wind of multi month carry trades could knock the USD/JPY down into the 90's and knock the GBP, NZD and AUD. I would suggest looking for the vertical move, sell on stop with close "if done" protective stops.

Unrelated chart. Question for another member

USD/CHF, Trying a long at .8890. S/L .8855, T/P .9180