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  • #1,030,821
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:21am Oct 9, 2015 4:21am
the potential range of the triangle
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  • #1,030,822
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:23am Oct 9, 2015 4:23am
I wouldn't go long on EU at this point. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. The ECB will still have to do more quantitative easing. Look at the production data out of Europe, demand is not there even though we have a cheaper currency. I think the market would be aiming towards parity. Therefore, at these key technical levels such as the relatively short term 4H bullish channel, I think the up-line is going to hold. Europe needs further stimulus to stabilize its economy, and the Fed is only staying put until they get there; then we may see a rise in rates. Soft crash to parity could be on the horizon for the next two quarters.

JMHO
  • #1,030,823
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:33am Oct 9, 2015 4:33am
Quoting Dano12
the potential range of the triangle {image}
Do you see more upside on the EU?
  • #1,030,824
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:36am Oct 9, 2015 4:36am
Quoting fxreza
I wouldn't go long on EU at this point. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. The ECB will still have to do more quantitative easing. Look at the production data out of Europe, demand is not there even though we have a cheaper currency. I think the market would be aiming towards parity. Therefore, at these key technical levels such as the relatively short term 4H bullish channel, I think the up-line is going to hold. Europe needs further stimulus to stabilize its economy, and the Fed is only staying put until they get there; then we may see a rise...
I think your info is wright.

But we have seen before that euro spike so anything can happen before the FED rasing rates.
  • #1,030,825
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:40am Oct 9, 2015 4:40am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} I think your info is wright. But we have seen before that euro spike so anything can happen before the FED rasing rates.
And without FED hiking path to 1.0 could be rather slow...With spikes as you mentioned.
  • #1,030,826
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:42am Oct 9, 2015 4:42am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} look at aud/nzd for a range-bound long entry.
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #1,030,827
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:43am Oct 9, 2015 4:43am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And without FED hiking path to 1.0 could be rather slow...With spikes as you mentioned.
Yeah.

Bulls are strong at the moment.
  • #1,030,828
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:47am Oct 9, 2015 4:47am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} I think your info is wright. But we have seen before that euro spike so anything can happen before the FED rasing rates.
I agree; there are always externalities and black swan situations that could happen. Listening around to heads of banks, it looks like there is a consensus policy for EU to hold between 1.05 and 1.15 until the tides shift in Europe. Where we are today seems to be a central banker's comfort level. I think the ECB would like it closer to 1.05 and the Fed closer to 1.15. I wouldn't bet on either of these levels as there are market forces involved; it just makes it a heaven for range trading when 1H and 4H levels are established.
  • #1,030,829
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:48am Oct 9, 2015 4:48am
Quoting fxreza
I wouldn't go long on EU at this point. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. The ECB will still have to do more quantitative easing. Look at the production data out of Europe, demand is not there even though we have a cheaper currency. I think the market would be aiming towards parity. Therefore, at these key technical levels such as the relatively short term 4H bullish channel, I think the up-line is going to hold. Europe needs further stimulus to stabilize its economy, and the Fed is only staying put until they get there; then we may see a rise...
I agree - it seems due to the delayed USD rate hikes, USD seems to be out of fashion.

NZD
AUD
Euro

all rallying against the USD, when all their economies are going backwards. Might be a case of unwind of expectations around a Sep/Oct rate rise in currency terms?

Once it stabilises, it'll be back to the pattern of falling against USD for all of them (guesswork only).
  • #1,030,830
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:52am Oct 9, 2015 4:52am
There she goes.
  • #1,030,831
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:53am Oct 9, 2015 4:53am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
{quote}
problem is it dropped 50 pips first, any stop less would have been clipped
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #1,030,832
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:00am Oct 9, 2015 5:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a lot is possible. its also possible 1320 min was needed to free up a new move. i cant say for sure until it happens or not happens. i posted the techs i saw pre nfp and fomc. its up to the market now. -1271 closes are less bullish. 1272 may be a s/r, but be sure to get the close above 1282 or limbo
eu still on the bullish side. a possible long 1241 min or 1211 min. still conflict for me. 1319/1459 was/is a norm for 0901.

it seems bears and bulls would like 1241 minimal probably before 1462 as long as above 1172.

the deeper 1211 is for a higher bounce. if we stay above 1172 after reaching 1241, a short with some precision between 1462 and 1465 may show up. atm still looking bullish as i type.. some R on chart targeting 1462 included. nearest 1/4 1351/53. atm high 1348. in the chop zone
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,030,833
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:02am Oct 9, 2015 5:02am
Euro dollar most traded pair,but also most manipulated.

So watch out with stoploss.

We have seen it before that stoploss hunting.
  • #1,030,834
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:03am Oct 9, 2015 5:03am
EURAUD daily chart.approaching ltl
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Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #1,030,835
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:16am Oct 9, 2015 5:16am
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  • #1,030,836
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:42am Oct 9, 2015 5:42am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} good for a small correction perhaps very interesting article here. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...-country-world coming to a neighborhood near you. all fiat currencies have gone to zero. there is not one exception, not even King Dollar will survive (not in fiat form anyway) there is only one question, how long can they kick the can? or after a major deflation, they will order citizens worldwide to turn in physical silver/gold for probably 90% under market price in a sort of "debt reset", then...
Yes, wasted some @ 50.00
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #1,030,837
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:43am Oct 9, 2015 5:43am
Posted earlier that I closed my 2 long positions and 1 target was 1.1360. Should have been more patient
But words like could - should don't matter in FX market , what matters is how big is the profit on your account..
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  • #1,030,838
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:45am Oct 9, 2015 5:45am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} It's difficult to analysis. I had to sit down and think about this. I'm not an economist by any means, I'm just a finance grad student. All I could add is that the real exchange rate (Ɛ) for the US is at a modest lagging level. For instance, if Ɛ is high, domestic goods are more expensive relative to foreign goods, therefore, the US will want to purchase more M and other countries will purchase less of US goods. Thus, demand for NX is low. In contrast, if Ɛ is low, domestic goods are cheap, making it cheaper and more attractive...
its voodoo at times like the present. nothing is stable. too many cooks hands in the pot. the u.s. producing more oil has drawbacks also. once the system shock of new oil is baked in economy. that economy is now more price sensitive when oil drops than before. overall positive, just more sensitive than a few years ago. nobody can predict with a certainty all the variables. nothing is constant, and the variables are constantly changing value. one minute we are drinking coffee, the next minute, the Russians are flying cruise missiles above Europe. the next minute?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,030,839
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:48am Oct 9, 2015 5:48am
Anyone dare to short Oil now ?
  • #1,030,840
  • Oct 9, 2015 5:50am Oct 9, 2015 5:50am
Quoting andexQ
Anyone dare to short Oil now ?
I'll give it a go at 50.95 with a tight stop.
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