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  • #1,030,741
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:31pm Oct 8, 2015 7:31pm
Quoting ExForX
Long upper wicks. Gator has his 1.133 (ok... almost), so now back down? ... only to halt back at 1.127, would be hilarious.
1320
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,030,742
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:34pm Oct 8, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} who is cutting? research the Saudis recent borrowing amounts. somebody is broke. but they dont want Russia back in the mid east. so they have to break the Russians by keeping prices down. than u got Iran almost online. 50.23 may be close to the top for a while. (yes they are in Syria)
But if we see priceaction and does not go for any outside news then its a clear cut buy on oil. Why see so much disturbance in it ?? above 49.31 previous high candle close so just we cannot buy it with little retrace ??
  • #1,030,743
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:39pm Oct 8, 2015 7:39pm
Quoting Talhazz
{quote} but it engulf the previous candle and also breaks 49.31 which was previous high so you can wait for some retrace and then go for buy because its a clear buy we saw a 5 week range broken at least 54 is there for me
technically yes for bull but still have to track weekly close today for more information, it could get 'nastley'
  • #1,030,744
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:40pm Oct 8, 2015 7:40pm
Add short 1.1275
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,030,745
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:41pm Oct 8, 2015 7:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yen and euro not moving so much verse usd

USD could be under heavy pressure next week... maybe yen & euro could get a boost.

just my opinion though.
  • #1,030,746
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:44pm Oct 8, 2015 7:44pm
Quoting Talhazz
{quote} But if we see priceaction and does not go for any outside news then its a clear cut buy on oil. Why see so much disturbance in it ?? above 49.31 previous high candle close so just we cannot buy it with little retrace ??
that's up to you. its near and below a 50% retrace. with such crappy u.s. news. it still hasn't managed to make a fairly common minimal retrace atm. it may just as easy drop 4$ to 46.8x
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,030,747
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:44pm Oct 8, 2015 7:44pm
Quoting mahooo
Add short 1.1275 {image}
Euro looking very weak but usd is also weak. This pair is not looking attractive
  • #1,030,748
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:45pm Oct 8, 2015 7:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that's up to you. its near and below a 50% retrace. with such crappy u.s. news. it still hasn't managed to make a fairly common minimal retrace atm. it may just as easy drop 4$ to 46.8x
i'm also tracking 46.81 for the weekly roll today what a coincidence.
  • #1,030,749
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:54pm Oct 8, 2015 7:54pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} USD could be under heavy pressure next week... maybe yen & euro could get a boost. just my opinion though.
a lot is possible. its also possible 1320 min was needed to free up a new move. i cant say for sure until it happens or not happens. i posted the techs i saw pre nfp and fomc. its up to the market now. -1271 closes are less bullish. 1272 may be a s/r, but be sure to get the close above 1282 or limbo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,030,750
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:56pm Oct 8, 2015 7:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a lot is possible. its also possible 1320 min was needed to free up a new move. i cant say for sure until it happens or not happens. i posted the techs i saw pre nfp and fomc. its up to the market now. -1271 closes are less bullish.
Euro itself looks very weak i think we might see 1.1210 before new high
  • #1,030,751
  • Oct 8, 2015 8:01pm Oct 8, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} i'm also tracking 46.81 for the weekly roll today what a coincidence.
46.8x more of a guess using 50.23,, w/o a hh 46.61 may be closer
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,030,752
  • Oct 8, 2015 8:43pm Oct 8, 2015 8:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yen and euro not moving so much verse usd
Definitely noticed this as well. I'm am always looking for the ring pair correlation.

U/J H1 over the last few days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 32.PNG Size: 13 KB


E/A H1 over the last few days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,030,753
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:19pm Oct 8, 2015 9:19pm
Quoting Talhazz
{quote} Euro looking very weak but usd is also weak. This pair is not looking attractive
Yes i agree
  • #1,030,754
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:26pm Oct 8, 2015 9:26pm
Pending BUY EA 1.54670
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #1,030,755
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:29pm Oct 8, 2015 9:29pm
so much for those crude trades
  • #1,030,756
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:38pm Oct 8, 2015 9:38pm
Quoting Pharm0r
so much for those crude trades
Welp... I'm done with crude lol
Demo? What's A Demo?
  • #1,030,757
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:54pm Oct 8, 2015 9:54pm
Quoting Pharm0r
so much for those crude trades
look at aud/nzd for a range-bound long entry.
  • #1,030,758
  • Oct 8, 2015 9:58pm Oct 8, 2015 9:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yen and euro not moving so much verse usd
It's difficult to analysis. I had to sit down and think about this. I'm not an economist by any means, I'm just a finance grad student. All I could add is that the real exchange rate (Ɛ) for the US is at a modest lagging level. For instance, if Ɛ is high, domestic goods are more expensive relative to foreign goods, therefore, the US will want to purchase more M and other countries will purchase less of US goods. Thus, demand for NX is low.

In contrast, if Ɛ is low, domestic goods are cheap, making it cheaper and more attractive to purchase these goods. While, other countries will also want to purchase US goods. In each case, net NX is higher or lower, respectively.

There isn't a behavioral relation between NX = NX, however; when Ɛ enters the equation, NX = NX(Ɛ), it becomes behavioral.

Of course, there are other factors involved, that are way beyond my ability to derive and make sense of it. It's always important to distinguish the nominal and real exchange rates, and how this and I(r) makes r = r* (r* being the world interest rate).

There's always the simple function of Y = F(K,L), where K and L are constant.

Trying to avoid heavy math, it really boils down where (X-M) enters the consumption function Y = C + I + G. And when national income accounts identity is S - I = NX, there in lies if a trade surplus or deficit exists.

Despite all of this above, there is a different perspective when FP (foreign policy) is introduced. There is a good article in the Economists that covers this. If you don't have a subscription, PM me and I'll show you how to get it for free.
  • #1,030,759
  • Oct 8, 2015 10:12pm Oct 8, 2015 10:12pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} look at aud/nzd for a range-bound long entry.
yes but both au and nu @ resistance 4hr, will require a wtf to move an
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #1,030,760
  • Oct 8, 2015 10:18pm Oct 8, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} It's difficult to analysis. I had to sit down and think about this. I'm not an economist by any means, I'm just a finance grad student. All I could add is that the real exchange rate (Ɛ) for the US is at a modest lagging level. For instance, if Ɛ is high, domestic goods are more expensive relative to foreign goods, therefore, the US will want to purchase more M and other countries will purchase less of US goods. Thus, demand for NX is low. In contrast, if Ɛ is low, domestic goods are cheap, making it cheaper and more attractive...

Hi there, Is there a way to chat in ForexFactory? I like to further discuss your analysis with you!
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