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What is the MOST important level on your chart today?

  • #101
  • Oct 7, 2015 12:24pm Oct 7, 2015 12:24pm
All of your comments are correct, and quite reasonable. And because they pertain to me, yes the trolls will probably attack you too now; such is their penis envy.

I'm replying to you because of your observations about the coding work I have had commissioned over recent years on Elance.

MOST of the significant profits I have made in Forex have been made at 500 lots per trade. And I traded at 500 lots per trade for a couple of years, roughly speaking. This is all very old news here in FF.

Whilst I could have traded at much higher levels, I was content to plateau at 500 lots per trade and to pack, stack and rack the cash (typically about $500,000 a week) while I considered other things and took life easy.

My brokers can't process 1 trade of 500 lots. But they most certainly can process 5 x 100 lot trades quickly and efficiently. However, me clicking 5 trade orders one after the other would be simply stupid, distracting and very inefficient. All trade copier software I explored could not come close to meeting the needs of how I trade.

My license for the API I use enables me to run my custom-built Java application on 5 PCs.

Each instance of the Java app fires up 28 instances of MT4 running in the background per PC. This app on startup logins in to as many as 7 accounts and if I want, with 7 different brokers; each of which can have their own max lots per trade limit and other parameters set. Each account with my Java app knows how much equity I have in my account, and how many lots to open per $1,000 in each account. ETC!

So, across 5 PCs, I can trade 35 accounts with ease, it all auto calculating lot sizes, hedging levels, BE+1 settings and a whole host of stuff that is fundamental to how I made my money. ETC!

And after login, my Java app gives me my trading interface where I simply click one button, and 4 x instances of MT4 per account blast out as many orders as my equity allows across as many brokers as I am logged in to.

It's a beast, and not the trivial toy of a wannabe. I most certainly have road-tested it on demo to 100,000 lots across 7 accounts, and it loves it.

I have never promoted or marketed any Forex trading training course EVER. Hundreds have approached me over the years to study my methods and trading system, which I filtered out to be the 36 members I have in my private forum. Quite a number of them are millionaires or more wealthy. They are intelligent and discerning people.

And they know I need no support from them when being mindlessly attacked by trolls here. We all tend to have a giggle in our Skype Trading Room at the attacks, and it's all years old the news that I am a male slut who prefers sex with married women, etc etc etc.

Quoting Pipologist
I usually don't get caught in between crossfire and try to avoid it if at all possible, but a trader I respect recently subscribed to this thread and I followed the link because I was curious. I found it amusing in a sad kind of way that there was so much hate directed at the starter of this thread. I first I thought the links (posted as "evidence" of what) were amusing, and curiously like everyone else followed them...and found this one that whoever posted... https://www.elance.com/e/dancingphil/ If you look at the page carefully, it...
  • #102
  • Oct 7, 2015 2:05pm Oct 7, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting dancingphil
My license for the API I use enables me to run my custom-built Java application on 5 PCs.
I'm curious, is it NJ4X?
  • #103
  • Oct 7, 2015 5:39pm Oct 7, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting dancingphil
{quote}
Thanks for taking the time to reply and include info about your trading. Good stuff that I'll digest and try to implement into an EA, based on what you said in a previous post on this thread about your trading style and what you said in this reply, I have a very loose concept about how you trade, it's interesting, the overall concept I think I've gleaned is worth experimenting on and pursuing.
  • #104
  • Oct 7, 2015 6:50pm Oct 7, 2015 6:50pm
Quoting dancingphil
All of your comments are correct, and quite reasonable. And because they pertain to me, yes the trolls will probably attack you too now; such is their penis envy. I'm replying to you because of your observations about the coding work I have had commissioned over recent years on Elance. MOST of the significant profits I have made in Forex have been made at 500 lots per trade. And I traded at 500 lots per trade for a couple of years, roughly speaking. This is all very old news here in FF. Whilst I could have traded at much higher levels, I was content...
You know Phil, this is likely to get me into trouble, but I have done what I came to do here at the Factory. If they let me stay, great, if they don't, I understand that the current environment is tough. So let me start by saying I am a sexist and misogynistic troll for the sake of this post.

White knights attack you for accessing the true nature of the average female. Few women marry for love. And when a better deal comes along they will very quickly use their "ass-ets". Why people attack you for understanding human nature is curious to me.

Now that aside, thanks for allowing people to see the power of leverage. You have openly stated that you played a few 200 dollar lottery tickets until you figured it out. I would have never posted to you before I started trying to teach, and then I realized why you, Gramae, Peter Crowns, and a few others simply walked away from their threads. Most traders fail, not because the market is rigged, but because they have some fatal flaw that disallows success in this business. Playing markets with money and running game with women is so remarkably similar, most will never, ever, get this.

So keep at it Phil. I am in the US so I cannot duplicate your results because my government forbids it. But I would implore you to keep teaching, help dig some folks out of poverty. I know that you know that when some of those same people get the funds you have, they will be doing what you do.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #105
  • Oct 7, 2015 10:51pm Oct 7, 2015 10:51pm
Well, I'm not sure it will help you at all code any kind of EA other than one for trade management functions. And the only EA I did use was for these trade management functions, and which are now done by my Java application. The only things I have ever discussed in any public forum are the broad-brush strokes of my trade management approach; but I will summarize these for you:

1 I am a counter-trend trader, because every new trend began its life with the seed grown out of a counter-trend move. The trend is NOT my friend; and I've always held the belief that "when you can see the trend, it's too bloody late mate".

2 I am a very large lot trader for the account size I use. This has meant for years now that I trade 2.5 lots per $1,000 of equity in my account, using brokers that allow such high leverage. This 2.5 lots grew to be what it is now, out of starting many years ago at 1 lot per $1,000 of equity. That is, when you practice to learn throwing darts, over time you get much better at being able to hit the "bulls-eye". With years of experience, you get much sharper and more accurate at picking that turning point on the chart, and so you can "load the boat" fully with the weight of your trade size.

3 I use hedging and NOT stop losses as my primary account protection method. I expect myself to be very sharp with the accuracy of my entries, and so I run a hedge at -11 pips setting at all times. And I start to get antsy and uncomfortable if any trade gets to -5 pips underwater.

4 I only use ECN brokers, and only those which don't bust out a bad trade until 80% of equity has been lost. Hedging at -11 pips, if I am hedged (which happens to about 3% of my trades) this still gives me about 50% of my account equity available to trade my way out of my hedge while being down by about 30%. I only trade at 400:1 leverage.

5 I run a very tight Break Even +1 pip Stop Loss setting which kicks in at 5 pips profit. This is because of Rule 1 in wealth generation; do NOT lose your bloody money! This can be annoying, with many great trades being taken out when you'd rather the BE+1 setting didn't kill them early; yet I am aggressive with my lot sizing, and there's every reason for me to re-enter any such killed trade with the extra information I would then have available.

6 Make 200%, take out 20% or whatever other profit withdrawal formula suits.

All of the above I first published YEARS ago here on FF, and there's nothing new or changed about them.

As for my actual trading system, and for the idiosyncrasies of my trading style - they will be impossible for anyone to discern. I have never even hinted at them. My indicators, especially my favorite one do not exist in the public with no approximate facsimiles around. And even then, indicators only indicate. I always use my instinctive judgement in regards to Price Action before I jump all over a trade set up. And EAs can't do that.

Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Thanks for taking the time to reply and include info about your trading. Good stuff that I'll digest and try to implement into an EA, based on what you said in a previous post on this thread about your trading style and what you said in this reply, I have a very loose concept about how you trade, it's interesting, the overall concept I think I've gleaned is worth experimenting on and pursuing.
  • #106
  • Oct 7, 2015 11:33pm Oct 7, 2015 11:33pm
Quoting dancingphil
{quote}
Whoa. Thank you. This answers many of the questions I had about your trade management and even money management. Entries, indies, that's proprietary, once you let the cat out of the bag in public all the newbies, naysayers and takers come out of the woodworks and even if it works for you they may not even take the signals and know what to do with them when a trade turns sour and then turn around and blame you for their sloppy trading. I had found afterwards, an article you wrote about not using hard stops and using hedges instead of hard stops, and you even delved into that here. Which brings me to a question that you may not wish to disclose here, as it may be proprietary as well, but in general, how to get out of a bad trade, hedging is understood, but hedging still leaves you with one bad open trade unless you use a perpetual hedge and use a trailing BE, in which case unless one is careful you could end up with 2 bad positions going the same direction at any given time. The timing of the hedge can't be based on an indie since you said it starts at -11pips. Let's say you hedge a position in minus territory and then later, one is out with BE or better, you still have one open loss, unless that one is also hedged, but if you hedge it at -11, you could have 2 minus positions, and you could still have the other trade open, do you always float with +1/0 positions which is the ideal, and if at -1 add another which for the time being could put you at -1 /-1 for a while. When you can take a BE+1 on one, you still have -1, at that point are you also immediately hedging if the difference is over 11p an/or put in another reverse stop entry at -11p if you are within 11p? (Otherwise you'd have an open trade with no stop and no hedge at that point which is counter to your risk strategy). Question is, how far do you let the hedge difference get away from you. Is it perpetually hedged or potentially perpetually hedged at every open trade? Aside from adjusting MM in which a doable level can be achieved with pure math and individual risk tolerance, trade mgmt of multiple positions is one of the most difficult things to do, and even more difficult to automate so that the risk taken comes out to fairly consistent and predictable levels. These are things that just crossed my mind.

PS: "indicators only indicate" - that's a good one, how very true indeed.
  • #107
  • Edited Oct 8, 2015 12:29am Oct 7, 2015 11:35pm | Edited Oct 8, 2015 12:29am
Getting into trouble mate is just a simple sign that you are making some kind of difference out there. I've been suspended here at Forex Factory SIX TIMES, and I am ashamed of none of them. The suspensions are merely symptomatic of the very poor calibre of Senior Member here; each empowered to hide behind their gutless decision to suspend someone for being out-spoken and controversial.

I hold no misogyny towards women; there is nothing about them that I hate or dislike. Well, other than those with morbid obesity, body piercings, tattoos, makeup applied with a shovel and perfumes that stink - I think they are great. And I enjoy Asian women much more, because they tend to not be tainted by all that silly looking crap that women in the west wear.

It is not even the fault of women that such a large number of them are gold diggers. That most women seek a safe, gentle, and financially stable guy to marry, it is true. They were raised by Govt and Church to believe the fairy tale as little girls that the true nature of women is to be monogamous. So in their ignorance about their true nature, they blindly go out and find the best they can get.

And yet it's just NOT true at all. There is NOTHING monogamous about the true nature of women!

The true nature of women is that they are sexual predators.

I think that's really sexy. Yet many women don't know this about themselves until they are frustrated and stuck in a marriage they hate, even though husband is a lovely guy.

I don't think we can blame women for being fooled by society's propaganda that they are naturally suited to a monogamous relationship. All of society has hidden from them that they have an "inner slut" at the core of their instinctive nature. And they had no idea when they married that they could not frustrate and hide forever this inner core nature that they have.

Michelle Langley wrote a particularly interesting book "Women's Infidelity". After she struggled with why she refused sex with her loving husband and desperately wanted sex with other men, she interviewed hundreds of other women to find this was true for almost all of them too.

In my world of seducing married women, I simply help them to understand the inner struggle they are dealing with. I'm never in their life to steal them away from their husband. But I most certainly do return them to their husband with some insight into their true sexuality, with them being knowing about their core values.

As for your comments on trading, yes I agree that traders don't fail because the markets are rigged. Rather, they have quite a raft of problems they don't deal with. Most have a poor discipline, many a belief in a benevolent God's support of their trades, an extremely poor understanding of the importance of the psychology of trading success and such a large number have no trading system whatsoever.

But as for empathy towards other humans? Nah, too many trolls for me to care about the many. I'll stick with saving kittens.

Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You know Phil, this is likely to get me into trouble, but I have done what I came to do here at the Factory. If they let me stay, great, if they don't, I understand that the current environment is tough. So let me start by saying I am a sexist and misogynistic troll for the sake of this post. White knights attack you for accessing the true nature of the average female. Few women marry for love. And when a better deal comes along they will very quickly use their "ass-ets". Why people attack you for understanding human nature is curious to...
  • #108
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:20am Oct 8, 2015 12:20am
Hedge Management is a core competency that in fact is not much more complex than normal trading.

BE+1 functionality must be turned OFF by the EA when/if a pending hedge order is hit.

If it is hit, then you have 2 trades to manage, and it is only important to manage one at a time. You only need one of these trades to make 11pips plus commissions to be able to close the other at a net BE (break even).

Get VERY good at trade entries; such that like me, you only get hedged about 3% of the time. Roughly 1:30 trades gets hedged in my world, NOT counting the BE+1 trades getting killed too.

The risk of you blowing your account then becomes one of 3% x 3%.

That is, releasing one side of your hedge is just like a new trade signal being acted on. Be extra sure this trade signal has the highest probability of success (as you should always do anyway), and then release that side of the hedge. You then a have a statistical probability of 0.09% chance of fucking up your account (3% x 3%).

That's enough trade management discussion from me now. Too many trolls getting a free lunch now.

Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Whoa. Thank you. This answers many of the questions I had about your trade management and even money management. Entries, indies, that's proprietary, once you let the cat out of the bag in public all the newbies, naysayers and takers come out of the woodworks and even if it works for you they may not even take the signals and know what to do with them when a trade turns sour and then turn around and blame you for their sloppy trading. I had found afterwards, an article you wrote about not using hard stops and using hedges instead of hard...
  • #109
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:35am Oct 8, 2015 12:35am
Sorry. Did not intend to get a free lunch. Thank you.

You've shared way more succinctly than I could have even hoped for.

Sorry to take it off the subject of "the most important level on the chart today".
  • #110
  • Oct 8, 2015 12:50pm Oct 8, 2015 12:50pm
Quoting dancingphil
Getting into trouble mate is just a simple sign that you are making some kind of difference out there. I've been suspended here at Forex Factory SIX TIMES, and I am ashamed of none of them. The suspensions are merely symptomatic of the very poor calibre of Senior Member here; each empowered to hide behind their gutless decision to suspend someone for being out-spoken and controversial. I hold no misogyny towards women; there is nothing about them that I hate or dislike. Well, other than those with morbid obesity, body piercings, tattoos, makeup...
The thread was binned. Go figure. Thanks for the book suggestion. If you haven't read "The Manipulated Man", I would give it a crack. Also written by a woman. Can you be contacted away from FF?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #111
  • Oct 8, 2015 3:15pm Oct 8, 2015 3:15pm
I think I understand your hedge strategy, but why not just close out your trade at your stop( I believe -10), then the next trade signal, increase lot size by 2. Wouldn't this be better since your margin level stays high, plus you only need +5 to make up the -10 you lost...D
Quoting dancingphil
Hedge Management is a core competency that in fact is not much more complex than normal trading. BE+1 functionality must be turned OFF by the EA when/if a pending hedge order is hit. If it is hit, then you have 2 trades to manage, and it is only important to manage one at a time. You only need one of these trades to make 11pips plus commissions to be able to close the other at a net BE (break even). Get VERY good at trade entries; such that like me, you only get hedged about 3% of the time. Roughly 1:30 trades gets hedged in my world, NOT counting...
  • #112
  • Oct 8, 2015 6:32pm Oct 8, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting forexdave1
I think I understand your hedge strategy, but why not just close out your trade at your stop( I believe -10), then the next trade signal, increase lot size by 2. Wouldn't this be better since your margin level stays high, plus you only need +5 to make up the -10 you lost...D{quote}
Margin level remains the same since it's based on Free Equity. Hedging allows you to take another position but it's not the same as 1 + 1, margin level does not "stay high" in either case, whether you are holding a losing trade with a hedge or taking the hard loss, although the hedged position allows you to take on another added position, sometimes allowing you to carry more on both sides than trying to from the very start with one side only, but as soon as you release a side, your free margin % drops like a rock and gets closer to stop out, that's why he looks for 20% stop out brokers only. It all makes sense. However, increasing lot size by factor of 2, in most cases doesn't, unless you are absolutely sure, and in case you are not, then what do you do? Increase by 4 compared to your original size and then 8, etc? A bad run and you are in minus eq territory. See martingale. No martingales please.
  • #113
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:07am Oct 9, 2015 4:07am
Without going deeply into it, the primary reason why I don't close out a trade with a stop, and why I hedge instead is because with a hedge, the trades are balanced, and all margin is once again free margin. I then have the time and luxury of considering my position.

When trading at 2.5 lots per $1,000 of account, I am almost at the highest lot sizing that 400:1 leveraged trading will allow. Taking a 30% hit to equity by a stop loss being reached, my next trade would have to be significantly smaller than the one just closed out.

So it is better to balance both trades with the hedge. Treat both trades as different trades; one of which I will close at the next solid trading signal my system gives me, and get my 11 pips plus commission back and close out the remaining trade.

Hedging allows me to continue at my full lot sizing. Stop loss concepts mean I would have to drastically reduce the size of my next trade, and it would take much longer (more pips) to claw back my loss.

Martingale concepts certainly have no place in my trading system.


Quoting forexdave1
I think I understand your hedge strategy, but why not just close out your trade at your stop( I believe -10), then the next trade signal, increase lot size by 2. Wouldn't this be better since your margin level stays high, plus you only need +5 to make up the -10 you lost...D{quote}
  • #114
  • Oct 9, 2015 10:39am Oct 9, 2015 10:39am
Dear Phil,
I haven't hedged any position yet and I'm studying it (actually relying on my own experiences since there's not much about hedging on the web). I've devoted my time on analyzing the behavior of EURUSD and I'm good at finding the most probable turning points on 1H + time frames. I'm also a counter-trend friend and not a trend follower. I don't use stop losses that's because I open the position at the very end of a trend and quickly close it after gaining some 10 to 20 pips (depending on the time frames, how strong the level is etc). I'm amused by the hedging strategy you use and want to learn more. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us here on FF
  • #115
  • Oct 9, 2015 9:49pm Oct 9, 2015 9:49pm
Quoting dancingphil
Without going deeply into it, the primary reason why I don't close out a trade with a stop, and why I hedge instead is because with a hedge, the trades are balanced, and all margin is once again free margin. I then have the time and luxury of considering my position. When trading at 2.5 lots per $1,000 of account, I am almost at the highest lot sizing that 400:1 leveraged trading will allow. Taking a 30% hit to equity by a stop loss being reached, my next trade would have to be significantly smaller than the one just closed out. So it is better...
OK your discussion makes total sense but for most, it would not be their style, unless of course, as you say, the entry was spot on, but then you have other alternatives if that was the case, especially if you're only losing 11p on 3 out of 100 trades. Which means, you've found or discovered or figured out a way to get your MAE down to 10.9 p max and best worst case scenario is BE+1 on 97 out of 100 trades. Figure in a little slip on these and best worst case scenario would be 0.75 on 97 trades, which equals 72.75p and approx 35p loss on 3 trades assuming crappy slippage and fills. Worst case is over 2/1 guaranteed with those numbers without taking on the additional risk of trying to claw your way back out of losing trades. Unless your signals were SO accurate, that you would be even more comfortable loading up on the reverse signal near the turns of your bad trades, thus increasing the profitability of your bad trades as well, not just covering at BE. However, for most, doing it the way you describe is a recipe for disaster, one slip and it's bye bye equity.

So what does any of this have to do with this thread?

You're asking all to think about the most important chart level today...right now...the one that brokers/markets have a tendency to return to. Not pivots, not BRNs, and by your lack of acknowledgement, not 50% retrace levels and not VWAP.

I have a feeling, you want to teach or discuss something here, something that works for you, something that many are missing, something in fact, that may be related to this indie you made and if not, something that is relevant to your trading style. Why else would you have started the thread.

Can you give a clue, or at least, acknowledge that you're not referring to some sort of pivots, S/R, 50% or VWAP? BRNs are too general, of course. But the others are used successfully everyday by many.

So what's your take? Not asking you to give out the farm or to even say it since there are a lot of folks here who have disrespected you so far for no tangible reasons and why should they be allowed privy to the discussion? Unfortunately, that's the nature of open forums.

Anyway, this thread is starting to get more interesting now that many of the finger pointers and disrupters have decided to shut up.
  • #116
  • Oct 9, 2015 10:07pm Oct 9, 2015 10:07pm
I'm really sorry, but I truly have no idea what you are talking about in your first paragraph. I cannot see any logic to what you are saying, and I cannot find any message in the paragraph that I can understand at all. And anyway, I'm done talking about hedging and I don't care if other traders find it useful or not. I don't have a brother, so I am no-one's keeper.

As for the purpose of my post, it had one point, and one point only. It was to get people to think.

When you spoon feed people, you end up with a baby dependent on you for the rest of your life.

The human brain is a pattern recognition system. The brain sees patterns, it stores them and it recalls these patterns when it sees the same pattern again. And the brain also uses patterns it has stored in the past to predict the pattern being repeated when it shows first signs of appearing again.

But people don't think. They may think they are thinking; but actually that "thinking" is just a feeling they have and they are not thinking at all.

There is a distinct and clear cut lack of thinking skill and ability on Forex Factory. Lots of sheep and herd mentality, but not a lot of discerning thought going on at all.

And so my post made it clear that the level is legitimate and real, constantly being revisited most days and that people should use their pattern recognition "wet-ware" to finally see it, and thereafter benefit from its power and significance.

And beyond sowing the seed for people to think about it, my duty to progress the discussion ended.

Quoting Pipologist
{quote} OK your discussion makes total sense but for most, it would not be their style, unless of course, as you say, the entry was spot on, but then you have other alternatives if that was the case, especially if you're only losing 11p on 3 out of 100 trades. Which means, you've found or discovered or figured out a way to get your MAE down to 10.9 p max and best worst case scenario is BE+1 on 97 out of 100 trades. Figure in a little slip on these and best worst case scenario would be 0.75 on 97 trades, which equals 72.75p and approx 35p loss on...
  • #117
  • Edited 1:22am Oct 10, 2015 12:25am | Edited 1:22am
Quoting dancingphil
I'm really sorry, but I truly have no idea what you are talking about in your first paragraph. I cannot see any logic to what you are saying, and I cannot find any message in the paragraph that I can understand at all. And anyway, I'm done talking about hedging and I don't care if other traders find it useful or not. I don't have a brother, so I am no-one's keeper. As for the purpose of my post, it had one point, and one point only. It was to get people to think. When you spoon feed people, you end up with a baby dependent on you for the rest of...
Just saying what you do/did is extremely difficult and impossible to do for *most* traders/wannabe traders. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

MAE for the others, means "maximum adverse excursion" per trade, i.e. max pips down at any given time.

All the best.
  • #118
  • Oct 14, 2015 8:02pm Oct 14, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting h96
This is old stuff, nothing new. He likes to fuck marriend woman, so what? What has it to do with his trading? pure slander... I dont give a fuck whether he fucks married women, horses or smurfs. It has nothing to do with his trading. I dont give a fuck whether he has 100$, 20 million$ or 100 billion $. I googled him myself, and i found all this stuff as well. But is there any recent activity? No. Instead of discussing in a normal way, people try to find information about people instead of just discussing about the subject. No suprise FF is more...

"No suprise FF is more like a mental hospital then a trading forum..." - EXACTLY!!!!
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #119
  • Oct 15, 2015 3:52pm Oct 15, 2015 3:52pm
What would be an effective method of trading these levels? Trade towards the level?
  • #120
  • Oct 24, 2015 10:32am Oct 24, 2015 10:32am
The most important level is the previous level where the market made a decision to choose a direction. S/D?
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