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  • #141
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:36am Sep 7, 2015 7:36am
according to my charts, today's low happened minutes before the euro open session. Not the UK as written in the rules?

If trading strictly to the rules then this isn't a valid trade
  • #142
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:36am Sep 7, 2015 7:36am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Sorry since 80808, are you talking about today?
Yes and thank you for your answers. I mean today "Cable (GU) has been a lovely mover this morning and now a short entry"
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #143
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:45am Sep 7, 2015 7:45am
Think understand now )) Correct me please
1. We wait for Asia close
2. We wait for new H or L after Asia
3. We wait for the "reversal" candle after this new extremum
4. We wait for the next (one or more) candle after the "reversal" one
5. If one of the next candles breakouts the reversal's high we buy, low - we sell.
Right?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #144
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:47am Sep 7, 2015 7:47am
Quoting shripsfx
according to my charts, today's low happened minutes before the euro open session. Not the UK as written in the rules? If trading strictly to the rules then this isn't a valid trade
Hi shripsfx

There isn't really a hard open/close in FX but for me I start at 7:00am UK time. In fact the reversal up candle closed at 8:00am UK time and the long entry was a break of its high
  • #145
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:52am Sep 7, 2015 7:52am
Quoting since80808
Think understand now )) Correct me please 1. We wait for Asia close 2. We wait for new H or L after Asia 3. We wait for the "reversal" candle after this new extremum 4. We wait for the next (one or more) candle after the "reversal" one 5. If one of the next candles breakouts the reversal's high we buy, low - we sell. Right?
That's it since80808, as most of the time highs and lows are formed in London and New York sessions, excepting perhaps Asian pairings
  • #146
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:55am Sep 7, 2015 7:55am
BTW I'm not actually short on Cable, I'm hedged so net flat
  • #147
  • Sep 7, 2015 7:57am Sep 7, 2015 7:57am
Thank you for your patience!
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #148
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:00am Sep 7, 2015 8:00am
No problem mate, 60 will probably elaborate more
  • #149
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:01am Sep 7, 2015 8:01am
Quoting 60minuteman
GU long off the new low {image}
Hi 60,

as for today's EU, will you long it at the low? especially it's holiday in US today. Thanks.



Regards,
Jay
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #150
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:12am Sep 7, 2015 8:12am
Quoting shripsfx
according to my charts, today's low happened minutes before the euro open session. Not the UK as written in the rules? If trading strictly to the rules then this isn't a valid trade
yes you are right, I include Frankfurt, I should really say start of the European session - just so used to calling it London.

That being said over a large series of trades it would save as many losers as winners and even out.

sorry for the mistake!
tradewith60
  • #151
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:14am Sep 7, 2015 8:14am
Quoting jayhong
{quote} Hi 60, as for today's EU, will you long it at the low? especially it's holiday in US today. Thanks. Regards, Jay {image}
Hi Jayhong, yes I took the low and now I am hedged from the high - I try to reduce the excluded days to a minimum for nothing more than the fact in backtesting I exclude no days and the results are positive. (also last monday was a UK holiday and a winning day...)
tradewith60
  • #152
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:24am Sep 7, 2015 8:24am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Hi Jayhong, yes I took the low and now I am hedged from the high - I try to reduce the excluded days to a minimum for nothing more than the fact in backtesting I exclude no days and the results are positive. (also last monday was a UK holiday and a winning day...)
thanks for your clarification 60! So for this EU trade, we may lose around 20 pips. right?

Regards,
Jay
  • #153
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:36am Sep 7, 2015 8:36am
Quoting jayhong
{quote} thanks for your clarification 60! So for this EU trade, we may lose around 20 pips. right? Regards, Jay
yep, correct Jay... When the hedges are wider it is possible to win on both - but they are the least common outcome, along with losing on both.

The purpose of using the hedge is to do with decision making - it feel's wrong and that is a natural human response.

There's a really good quote from the Turtle traders (this is not word for word but as I remember it) "if you have the choice of 2 trades, pick the one you like the least"
tradewith60
  • #154
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:07am Sep 7, 2015 9:07am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} yep, correct Jay... When the hedges are wider it is possible to win on both - but they are the least common outcome, along with losing on both. The purpose of using the hedge is to do with decision making - it feel's wrong and that is a natural human response. There's a really good quote from the Turtle traders (this is not word for word but as I remember it) "if you have the choice of 2 trades, pick the one you like the least"
Thanks 60. I am wondering whether you not just hedge, but reverse the trade instead. Say you long at low for 1 lot then short at high for 2 lots? If yes, at what circumstances will you try to do so?

One more question abt this system, do you think that I can apply similar ideas to asian ccys, like audusd, nzdusd, usdjpy or even usdcnh usdsgd. first to look at NY afternoon session price range, second to wait for the breakout of that range in asian time, third to enter at high or low...?

Thanks a lot for your patience

Regards,
Jay
  • #155
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:47am Sep 7, 2015 9:47am
Quoting jayhong
{quote} Thanks 60. I am wondering whether you not just hedge, but reverse the trade instead. Say you long at low for 1 lot then short at high for 2 lots? If yes, at what circumstances will you try to do so? One more question abt this system, do you think that I can apply similar ideas to asian ccys, like audusd, nzdusd, usdjpy or even usdcnh usdsgd. first to look at NY afternoon session price range, second to wait for the breakout of that range in asian time, third to enter at high or low...? Thanks a lot for your patience Regards, Jay
stop and reverse I will do also, if you look back at last weeks posts I closed the long and took the short (essentially the same with a 2/1 hedge) - the important think to grasp is that (despite what most people will say) we always have to make a judgement call with regards entry and exit, sometimes you will be right, sometimes wrong.

you could of course make this work on other currencies - it is just convenient that we will often have a lower volume of trades in the Asian session for the euro/dollar pairs. Remember the logic is sell high, buy low - avoid other largely useless technical details that will only make the decision process harder and cause human error.
tradewith60
  • #156
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:59am Sep 7, 2015 9:59am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} stop and reverse I will do also, if you look back at last weeks posts I closed the long and took the short (essentially the same with a 2/1 hedge) - the important think to grasp is that (despite what most people will say) we always have to make a judgement call with regards entry and exit, sometimes you will be right, sometimes wrong. you could of course make this work on other currencies - it is just convenient that we will often have a lower volume of trades in the Asian session for the euro/dollar pairs. Remember the logic is sell high,...
thanks for your guidance Great help! I will use your simple logic to test some asian ccys.

Jay
  • #157
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:21am Sep 7, 2015 11:21am
And Cable still continues on up
  • #158
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:37am Sep 7, 2015 11:37am
Quoting rover99x
And Cable still continues on up
yeah, nice hold on the hedge T
tradewith60
  • #159
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:45am Sep 7, 2015 11:45am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} yeah, nice hold on the hedge T
That's the beauty of your method and using a hedge !!

  • #160
  • Sep 7, 2015 11:50am Sep 7, 2015 11:50am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} That's the beauty of your method and using a hedge !!
it is a nice part of the strategy -

I think the real power lies in the complete lack of discussion needed - no analysis for tomorrow, no decision on trend or bias, no wondering if one price action set up is more valid than another - just trade the extremes. This reduces human error and makes the method much easier to maintain over a run of trades, and if you can trade methodically for long enough, from the right locations, then the odd's and probabilities are allowed to play out and consistent profits can be made.
tradewith60
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