EURUSD

Hi how you doing , is ''SS'' running by EA or by your own ?

Replied. And put 2 other chart.

Looking at them now.

The first one was the broken norm I played last week, and gave it all back the second time around. I since deleted that chart, thanks for the reminder. I was skeptical on counting the LL, but I see that 1.1427 should be watched as well to see if bears are bullshitting or not

The second one: not a big fan of the mirror image method....usually just confuses me

Sending you one last one

Thanks. I have some between 1.1410 and 1.2095 as 1.1760 and 1.1872. Those 2 not according to mofu trading.

Off to a wedding (not mine), bbl

If you consider LL at 20 th July it also gives 1.1427x too. For the mirror image it did not hit 1.0786 yet so its still open as Gator time to time talks about. In 2014 1.3773 hit before its norm and it goes up 1.399x.So sometimes fails.

Tell it to head down for awhile, eh? I'm underwater on a couple small shorts, and they're needing some air.

2014 was a different year. ecb rate was 0.5%. its now 0.05%. also QE is not unwinding like some are saying. there are still stresses

Why do you think there will be a gap down when open? Price is now too close to comfort at 1.146 resistance. Once this resistance is broken, the up trend will be confirmed, especially if Greece confirm a new pro-austerity government.

You welcome. Inspite of reversal candles will wait breakout of 1.12900 price level as final confirmation for sell market.

mind you if you think it is going back to 1.2 in a hurry that is a long distance away. the last time it got hammered was when ecb officials came out and spoke abt front loading. that time i think price was 1.1382 or near abouts. so we have closed that gap.

my views only, gap down on opening then back up to 1.143 ... then down from here.

you don't wanna get stuck on a buy position from there, historically it touched that level and dropped.

That is Cent account.

My thoughts on EU. First I was wrong on the Friday afternoon shorts. So it goes, but should have seen it coming. Where from here? As has already been posted by others, there is numerous resistance at price & just above. We have historical sellers in this area. Price is way above daily BB (but that gap will close when market opens the new day). One of the best overbought/oversold indicators I've seen is the DOSC, which I show below on the daily & weekly timeframes. Those circles show where my calculations (the horizontal pink line at the indicator which is close to an average of the last several historical tops) put the daily overbought for the indicator. Every other time there has been a significant retrace after reaching the high (or low) on the DOSC within a day. Note DOSC is currently at 224 (Friday close) & the last 3 average is 259....but there's always a time indicators don't work. On weekly, the same thing with DOSC, but BB still has room.

The ABCD up on daily was completed at 1.1383 (on my chart), so the next bull extension target is 1.1482, which again, has lots of resistance there & I expect would hit the daily DOSC overbought level & be right near the weekly BB top, which makes me feel it hardly likely there would be significant buyers there if price gets there this week.

What I'm watching.

1. OANDA's FX positions. As of Friday close, it was 71% shorts after mostly growing all week. I think the CFTC data is more accurate, but it is going to be stale by the time we retailers get the real data. Commercial has a huge advantage on us here, probably intentionally. They will get the new numbers next Tuesday I believe & we won't see them until Friday. I'm expecting next week's CFTC data to show increasing shorts just like OANDA's so CFTC won't confirm a midterm top via a shorts contraction until the week after at the earliest. i.e. we haven't seen the squeeze yet so it could get very ugly for bears if a squeeze happens.

2. China. I know very little about China. I read somewhere (yes, helpful, so take with a pound of salt) that some bank (see?) still expects China to lower their interest rates 50 bps in AUGUST. Generally, lowering interest rates lowers the currency, which is what they recently did that got this whole risk off mode hopping with EU climbing. If there is an interest rate move by China here in the next 8 days, I'm just going to buy some EU (again) & see where the pair is when I wake up the next day. Unless someone can point out reasons why the euro as funding currency has ended since Friday. Of course, they could also devalue via their peg again but I think they are clever folk and as they told markets 'we have no need to devalue the peg again' after time #3, they were just planning to do the rate lowering next. I've also read (again, so concrete) on the always truthful interwebs that China is/should be looking for a 10% devaluation against the USD to maintain competitiveness with the emerging markets, so if accurate they have another halfway to go.

3. USD, via DXY & DXU5. DXY is at 94.80. Daily ABCD down targets 94.17 (100%); 93.04 (127%); 91.57 (161%). I think the last one would be a bullish harmonic shark pattern to spring back up, but that pattern eludes my comprehension as I need someone to give me a step by step guide instead of just fib patterns placed on top of each other.

4. EU retracement level. If it retraces, I'm thinking a nice slow retrace will happen just like the one from 1.1214. I think this b/c shorts are overextended so they will be closing out positions with buys instead of ramping up sells. I also think it will hardly go lower than 1.1200. Former top at 1.1214, 50% at 1.1202 & a small bottom on 1H & 4H at 1.123x-4x could be a supply zone. A retrace like that will give me lots of confidence to take a long if/when bull trend reestablishes, with a potential 1.618% target on a 3 drive pattern at 1.1792 (with low at 1.1200 on the nose). Note the near lack of resistance (1540? & 1650?) between current recent tops & this target, which matches weekly ABCD, 38.2, etc etc. It's almost so clear that we can write down it won't happen, so hang on to your wallets.

Bund yields down at support make or break level.
DAX at support make/break.
US10Y Yields at support make/break

Not using DXY as trade decision, reason being;

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to other select currencies:

1. Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
2. Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
3. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
4. Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
5. Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
6. Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

Bund Daily

DAX Daily


USDCNH H4 (no idea what PBOC will do but have wild guess)

Nice point. I find DXY useful along the lines of looking at all those other charts for currency strength/weakness. Also for trend. DXY seems to be more accurate with predicting trend in EU than EU on small timeframes like 15m, but I may be fooling myself.

if i get lucky i may post the right #. so close to the highs in the next 80 pips has a decent shot. next one i have is subs to the same majors 0474/1453.
1391.8 is the next one. 1406.7 after.. after any place under high. tech wise even with a new high. we may still see 0964 again. its a norm pivot like anything else. i still have 158x as valid target (st one 1555), still disappointed we missed norm at 0786 before 158x (but its still valid so is 1008/10 before 1555). shit happens and things change. along with 0786 another is 1008/10... a break of 1466 high and some will want 1.2430 ish+ tech wise. even than 0964 is still a normal retrace tech wise before reaching 2470 or even 2605, not valid yet w/o a new HH on the year

what tf are those candles?

OK thanks. And yes I knew the heavily weighted bit. Not apples to apples, but the same could be said of other weighted indexes, like SP500, etc, even moreso when those stock indexes change components over time, but people seem to use them successfully.