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  • #1,015,541
  • Aug 2, 2015 9:39pm Aug 2, 2015 9:39pm
no evidence to prove this atm. not sure if we get a pre nfp pump or not.. 1038/47 may be a place to consider a short.. i dont see anything st bullish to cause a bounce. i set a what if entry sometimes instead of chasing. it just tested 0969.. 0964 is a s/r. going to 1038 is not stretch before a drop. at least its a better price then where it sits atm.. if one wants to short, but not at support at 0964. atm 1038 is about the same as 1002 was friday at highs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,015,542
  • Edited 11:28pm Aug 2, 2015 9:41pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Here is a better one with data from 31 brokers from the Triennial Central Bank Survey 2010, published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), again showing the most volume between 9 and 10 with the peak at 10 (from here http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...-market-4.html). Pip movement, or volatility, is not indicative of when the most players are in the market. (You can have a lot of volatility and unpredictable moves during off hours). What you want is predictability, which you get when there are...
You can have high volume and unpredictability during peak hours. A study across all brokers shows a cumulative loss for many trading during the Europe NY cross. PA can operate cross purpose at certain times. You can see the drop in profitability clearly on the graph below.

(from here - http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...de-matter.html )

There's a qualitative difference in the types of moves that happen during each session. Deterministic moves have a higher reward factor than moves after certain price objectives have been achieved. Once a trader understands the purpose behind PA then they stand a much better chance of capitalizing off of it.

On Friday for example, there were deterministic factors for the price rise, then we had the directional shift after those objectives were achieved.

Quoting Luther
{quote} I wouldn't suggest to short yet. There are a few factors driving price up. Month end Euro demand, better than expected Core CPI driving bund yields, and we have a 2.23 Billion 1.100 options expiry set to roll off NY cut. ... After the options cut or London close we could go the other way.
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  • #1,015,543
  • Edited 10:07pm Aug 2, 2015 9:43pm | Edited 10:07pm
Someone sending a strong signal with a clear target if anyone is paying attention. (ain't me and this is not a recommendation to do anything, safest play could be to scale in and out while trailing stops)
  • #1,015,544
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:02pm Aug 2, 2015 10:02pm
Quoting fxjesus
Someone sending a strong signal with a clear target if anyone is paying attention. (ain't me and this is not a recommendation to do anything, just a possible setup)
Was that krishelis?

Quoting krishelis
Break of 1.0974 will come down to 1.0958 (this area will be tricky), if it will hold, then it will go up, otherwise, TP1 1.0924, TP2 1.0899 Up targets: 1.1008, then break of 1.1030 will lead price to 1.1102 {image}
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #1,015,545
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:14pm Aug 2, 2015 10:14pm
I don't read forums for ideas but that is along the lines of what I see setting up.
  • #1,015,546
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:19pm Aug 2, 2015 10:19pm
in stocks price climbs a wall of worry....right now price is tryin to climb out of a pit LOL
  • #1,015,547
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:32pm Aug 2, 2015 10:32pm
when price reaches my buy points i havent decided yet if ill apply the GOD rule.....u get one chance to close out at break even and G(get) O(out) S(stupid)
  • #1,015,548
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:34pm Aug 2, 2015 10:34pm
thats dummy LOL...see how stupid i am
  • #1,015,549
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:38pm Aug 2, 2015 10:38pm
Entering for this kind of move has the risk that it collapses like the spike friday (sort of promoted by my saying of buy below 1.1 ). Not suitable for doing with some brokers I hear. Of course if you know what you're doing it really doesn't matter... any price is a good price to buy and sell for a market maker (as they don't go all in at one price + have their bag of tricks)
  • #1,015,550
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:04pm Aug 2, 2015 11:04pm
Quoting koainnn
when price reaches my buy points i havent decided yet if ill apply the GOD rule.....u get one chance to close out at break even and G(get) O(out) S(stupid)
since we all have too much time here, I will fix your wording problem.

How about GOD rule = G(et) O(ut) D(umb). ?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,551
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:06pm Aug 2, 2015 11:06pm
pending short 1010
  • #1,015,552
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:15pm Aug 2, 2015 11:15pm
yes...LOL...get out dummy
  • #1,015,553
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:18pm Aug 2, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting koainnn
yes...LOL...get out dummy
we have users like fxgod, fxgoddess, fxjesus. Anyone interested to have a name called fxdemon? that name is not taken yet
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,554
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:21pm Aug 2, 2015 11:21pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} we have users like fxgod, fxgoddess, fxjesus. Anyone interested to have a name called fxdemon? that name is not taken yet
we also have fxmastermind, fxtyrant. anyone interested to have a name called fxtinyhead? fxslowbrain? no? why not?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,555
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:23pm Aug 2, 2015 11:23pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} we also have fxmastermind, fxtyrant. anyone interested to have a name called fxtinyhead? fxslowbrain? no? why not?
how about fxsloths? that is really cute

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,556
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:36pm Aug 2, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting koainnn
when price reaches my buy points i havent decided yet if ill apply the GOD rule.....u get one chance to close out at break even and G(get) O(out) S(stupid)
Yeah, the other day I was commenting on the fact that I had a short that I was stuck in (underwater) for awhile, but it looked like it MIGHT come back to let me at least get out at B/E. I was wondering out-loud if I should wait and see whether it kept moving into profit, or just count myself lucky that I even got back to B/E. Someone here basically said, "GET OUT if you can, it gave you another chance so don't mess it up." (paraphrasing) So I got out at about B/E and yep, sure enough, had I not I would have been back stuck again! So that's my long-winded way of saying I AGREE with you.
  • #1,015,557
  • Aug 3, 2015 12:31am Aug 3, 2015 12:31am
Friday London close 1.10272

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  • #1,015,558
  • Aug 3, 2015 12:33am Aug 3, 2015 12:33am
Quoting Luther
{quote} You can have high volume and unpredictability during peak hours. A study across all brokers shows a cumulative loss for many trading during the Europe NY cross. PA can operate cross purpose at certain times. You can see the drop in profitability clearly on the graph below. (from here - http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...de-matter.html ) There's a qualitative difference in the types of moves that happen during each session. Deterministic...
Yes, of course you CAN have. (That's why they call it unpredictability.) Nonetheless, a market (any market) should, on average, be more predictable the more players and volume you get. (Think monopoly vs free market. In a monopoly an unregulated seller can set any price it wants while in a free market with many players price will gravitate to fair market value.) By the same token in the off hours and on holidays it takes a lot less money for someone to produce an unpredictable spike. That's why a lot of times in EURUSD when there's been one of those 'hidden gaps' where a surprise move has driven price way down you'll see somebody 'fix' that over a couple of days by using the late US session to drive it back up )

That's an interesting study, but I don't think showing how profitable/unprofitable retail traders during various hours are proves much more than that most retail traders are predictable. I think it shows that they predictably lose more money when there's more of it to lose -i.e they lose more when the market is moving 20 pips an hour than when it's moving 5 pips an hour. (If you give a car to somebody who isn't a very good driver, are there more likely to be more and worse injuries whey they're going 20 mph or 65 mph?)

Definitely agree. Friday was perfectly predictable - I predicted it myself: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8411039 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post8409820. A great example of the usual players doing their usual thing at the usual time.
  • #1,015,559
  • Aug 3, 2015 12:39am Aug 3, 2015 12:39am
OK prediction gurus;

Where do we go from here?

Pls don't say if not down then up
  • #1,015,560
  • Aug 3, 2015 12:47am Aug 3, 2015 12:47am
Quoting Ken A
OK prediction gurus; Where do we go from here? Pls don't say if not down then up
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