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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #381
  • Jul 26, 2015 11:14am Jul 26, 2015 11:14am
Quoting hrwn47
{quote} as usual theory after the fact WHERE IS YOUR TE?
Why would anyone want to publish a TE? I have no need to prove anything to anyone about my trading. I published my trades in my journal for about 1 1/2 years. I think that's enough. The only person beyond me who gets to know my results is my wife. LOL. Good luck to you in finding how to turn theory into results.
  • #382
  • Jul 26, 2015 2:04pm Jul 26, 2015 2:04pm
what is te?
  • #383
  • Jul 26, 2015 5:23pm Jul 26, 2015 5:23pm
Quoting eurcollapse
what is te?
Trade Explorer

http://www.forexfactory.com/userguid...trade_explorer
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #384
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:05pm Jul 26, 2015 9:05pm
thanks. had no clue about the abbreviation but i was going to open one myself but am a firm believer in 'market discount theory'. anyways back to the market is random conversation....
  • #385
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:59pm Jul 27, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting GEfx
Why would anyone want to publish a TE? I have no need to prove anything to anyone about my trading.
I feel exactly the same way. Publicizing one's own performance is useful only if one is selling something, or wants the added stress of having his results critiqued by newbies and voyeurs.
  • #386
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:49pm Jul 27, 2015 6:49pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} I feel exactly the same way. Publicizing one's own performance is useful only if one is selling something, or wants the added stress of having his results critiqued by newbies and voyeurs.
Hi Hanover, I see you trade from New Zealand. I've been trading the GBP/NZD and the EUR/NZD a lot for some time now. I really can't target the NZD's low at this point. Any thoughts? Are we close to the bottom? What a wild ride it's been! Good trading!
  • #387
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:32pm Jul 27, 2015 7:32pm
I'm piping in.

I'm not a professional trader. I have no formal training and I lost big time last year while I was learning the business. I agree that their is too much volatility in certain currencies that should be avoided without having a gob of money to back you up. I personally have a small account but it is growing at a decent clip this year. My money weighted HPR (Holding Period Rate) is 225% as of today. I don't consider it random at all nor chaotic. While I cannot predict the future of anything I think the market is pretty reasonable to invest in with the right pairs.

What I have noticed in the last couple of years is that people who are successful are also encouraging while those that discourage have not been successful. I for one want to encourage anyone who wants to learn the market and trade it to do so. However I do think it is rare for most people who trade FX to control their emotions and run their trading like a business enough to be successful. Be careful out their and keep the gambling for Vegas. Follow a good strategy and you'll be fine.

Cheers!
  • #388
  • Jul 27, 2015 11:40pm Jul 27, 2015 11:40pm
Price is random in a sense that weather is also random .You cannt predict the weather but what u can do is follow the trends .In summer you wear cool clothes because you follow the trend. You dont wear woollen clothes in summer because you cannt predict the weather .You use past experience to wear summer clothes but u dont simply predict that next sunday or next month summer will be over you stop wearing summer clothes when you start to see the conditions change
  • #389
  • Edited 10:36pm Jul 28, 2015 12:27am | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} When a roulette wheel has 10 blacks or 15 reds in a row is that a trend ? The point is that Random can result in a perceived trend but in actuality a roulette wheel is completely random where the market do move to a fundamental driver 10% of the time.

Gobigfx,

Tell me this: Isn't it true we CONSISTENTLY see trends in the forex market (as well as any other market)?

BUT, how often do you - or anyone for that matter - see 10 blacks or 15 reds in a row on a roulette wheel? The answer is: NOT NEARLY AS OFTEN as you see trends in the forex market or any other market. Case closed.

Trends happen regularly in the markets and can be taken advantage of with predictability by observing the trend - and then taking action on the trend by entering trades, but the same realistically cannot be said of a "trend" on a roulette wheel, due to the reasons I wrote above.
"Success is not a fantasy, it's a formula." - MTI
  • #390
  • Jul 28, 2015 1:51am Jul 28, 2015 1:51am
Trends and Randomness go hand in hand we need one for the other its like Yin Yan Inside trends there is randomness and inside randomness there exists trends I dont think i can explain my logic nicely
  • #391
  • Edited 5:02pm Jul 28, 2015 4:47pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi Hanover, I see you trade from New Zealand. I've been trading the GBP/NZD and the EUR/NZD a lot for some time now. I really can't target the NZD's low at this point. Any thoughts? Are we close to the bottom? What a wild ride it's been! Good trading!
NZD is doubly close to my heart, as I make frequent international transactions, in addition to any trading.

Without a crystal ball, it's all guesswork of course, but I suspect that the last two interest rate cuts are all very much priced in now, and the RBNZ is no longer stating that the NZD is "unsustainably high", while Finance Minister English's target (stated a few months ago) of the "mid 60s" is now pretty much in place. Hence, in the short term, and everything being equal, there may be a relief rally, as institutional traders take their profits.

However, looking further ahead, the RBNZ reports that "further easing is likely to be required", and if/as rumors of further rate cuts come into focus, I expect the market to react accordingly. Also, if China's situation continues to worsen, then this will likely have a continuing effect on AUD, which history shows us can spill over into NZD. Also, any further decrease in the NZ dairy price index is bearish for NZD.

So while I'm neither knowledgeable nor bold enough to predict future downside targets for NZD (fundamentals are continuously shifting, and too much can happen in the meantime), I certainly don't see it as a long term buy, and I'm continuing to hedge myself against possible further weakness.

[EDIT]
To whatever extent the UK economic numbers remain good, and a rate hike continues to be touted, I see GBP as fundamentally stronger than EUR in the medium term, especially as the ECB continues with its QE process. Hence, everything else being equal, GBPNZD currently looks to be a better prospect over the next few months, than EURNZD. As the focus shifts away from Greece, then I can't see any significant fundamental reasons for EUR to strengthen more appreciably than GBP.
  • #392
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:27pm Jul 28, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} NZD is doubly close to my heart, as I make frequent international transactions, in addition to any trading. Without a crystal ball, it's all guesswork of course, but I suspect that the last two interest rate cuts are all very much priced in now, and the RBNZ is no longer stating that the NZD is "unsustainably high", while Finance Minister English's target (stated a few months ago) of the "mid 60s" is now pretty much in place. Hence, in the short term, and everything being equal, there may be a relief rally, as institutional traders take...
Hanover, thanks for sharing your thoughts on the NZD. Looks like some of the pressure is off the NZD for now with this relief rally finding some legs today. I agree with everything you said, and expect the USD and GBP to lead the way with higher rates, at least until something terrible happens somewhere in the world. I think the GBPNZD is the place to be, every day and every night...lol. It's the gift that keeps on giving. My personal opinion is that the EUR is now a "dead man walking", and we should not hear any more talk of it's rising status as a reserve currency. Quite the opposite. But that's just my opinion. Can't trade opinions until they show up on a chart. Good trading to you and hope you are having a good year.
  • #393
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:28pm Jul 30, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} You can get VWAP for crosses but crosses will always be more difficult because then there are 2 factors to consider the vwap of each pair instrument and the vwap of the pair together. Remember VWAP is just the start of how we are going to use the 10% Non Random times to our advantage. More to come soon
This is my first time with this thread. I have been reading all GoBigFx posts and is interesting. I am looking at practical solutions and not academic arguments which is a waste of time as seen by other posts. Forget all those irrelevant posts.

To get back to your quote "Remember VWAP is just the start of how we are going to use the 10% Non Random times to our advantage.
More to come soon"

I understand all that VWAP, Sigma levels and at the extremes but other than posting VWAP charts and comments in generalities which makes very little sense from practical/using the tool to trade point of view.

Can you please show on the chart some examples as to trades you've made and as to why the decision you made?

This is missing and hoping, you will do that, else it doesn't benefit anyone with generalities.

Hoping to learn, Thanks, Sam
  • #394
  • Aug 17, 2015 8:25am Aug 17, 2015 8:25am
almost at 400 posts and still the system remains a mystery.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #395
  • Aug 17, 2015 9:28am Aug 17, 2015 9:28am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Close but not exactly. Left my job and tried to trade using charts (at the bank we don't even have charts lol) only the order book. Trying to look for the same thing on charts is were the break between institutions and retail happens, This is the whole point You are all not looking at the same thing we are looking at ... so this is a serious issue because there is so much random noise and price levels that are not of any importance to the big money. We are only interested in the market when it leaves VWAP and thats where the truth of the...

When you mentioned VWAP, are you talking about currencies or futures? I didn't know its possible to have VWAP for currencies, where do you get the volume?
  • #396
  • Aug 17, 2015 9:36am Aug 17, 2015 9:36am
A guy i know made a apprentice at a major bank.

One of the first things he was told is "never speculate in financial markets". Since the he never bought or sold any security.

IMHO the best thing to do.
Forex is a losers game.
  • #397
  • Aug 17, 2015 9:38am Aug 17, 2015 9:38am
I'm in the FX business since 1998, and since the I've NEVER seen one single strategy that is profitable over a long period of time. Not a single one.

It is very difficult for those strategies to be long-term profitable, because of the commissions and the spread

Here is a simple experiment you can make:

Take a strategy that is constantly losing. This is very easy do find, as most do.

Now if you reverse this strategy, you should end up with a strategy that is consistently winning, right? I mean, if it is constanty losing, and you buy instead of sell and sell instead of buy if theoretically should be consistently profitable?

WRONG.

The sad thing is that BOTH strategies, the "normal" one and the reversed one is a loser. Does that ring some bell? The market is designed so that almost every speculator lose if he gambles long enough, very similar to a casino
Forex is a losers game.
  • #398
  • Aug 17, 2015 9:45am Aug 17, 2015 9:45am
Quoting trader121
I'm in the FX business since 1998, and since the I've NEVER seen one single strategy that is profitable over a long period of time. Not a single one.
I do not know if there absolut strategy or system, but for me better not using anything strategy (system, indicator, and all the rest). just move one piece by one piece, better get even the most smallest pips with secure and almost definite near zero probability than huge pips with probability.
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #399
  • Aug 17, 2015 10:41am Aug 17, 2015 10:41am
Quoting trader121
I'm in the FX business since 1998, and since the I've NEVER seen one single strategy that is profitable over a long period of time. Not a single one. It is very difficult for those strategies to be long-term profitable, because of the commissions and the spread Here is a simple experiment you can make: Take a strategy that is constantly losing. This is very easy do find, as most do. Now if you reverse this strategy, you should end up with a strategy that is consistently winning, right? I mean, if it is constanty losing, and you buy instead of sell...
We should call instead of profitable strategy profitable trader. If you or someone from fx brokers business could confirm whether something like long term profitable trader exist.
  • #400
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:05pm Aug 17, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting trader121
I'm in the FX business since 1998, and since the I've NEVER seen one single strategy that is profitable over a long period of time. Not a single one. It is very difficult for those strategies to be long-term profitable, because of the commissions and the spread Here is a simple experiment you can make: Take a strategy that is constantly losing. This is very easy do find, as most do. Now if you reverse this strategy, you should end up with a strategy that is consistently winning, right? I mean, if it is constanty losing, and you buy instead of sell...

exactly ,so i would suggest looking at r/r combined with % win and trade management .every method requires all three..risk annalists don't trade they manage the risk of the overall liabilities and risk .we as retail need to be able to trade and manage risk.that is the failing.
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