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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #301
  • Jun 25, 2015 7:30pm Jun 25, 2015 7:30pm
sorry to take us back to the wife following analogy, but if we are at the right hand edge, we cant see the wife, until after she has moved
" check out The Traders Outpost "
  • #302
  • Jun 25, 2015 7:50pm Jun 25, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting RedLineFred
sorry to take us back to the wife following analogy, but if we are at the right hand edge, we cant see the wife, until after she has moved
LONG USDJPY 123.27
  • #303
  • Jun 25, 2015 7:53pm Jun 25, 2015 7:53pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} LONG USDJPY 123.27
Market manipulation and stophunting going on
  • #304
  • Jun 25, 2015 8:55pm Jun 25, 2015 8:55pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} LONG USDJPY 123.27
Japanese yen is quite strong right now keeping usd from rallying. Watch yen weaken as franfurt london session approaches. This should allow usdjpy rally
  • #305
  • Jun 25, 2015 8:57pm Jun 25, 2015 8:57pm
By the way im also short audusd from 0.7740 with a target of 50pips. I posted that on my thread. Even if market is 90% random we can trade the 10% non randomness
  • #306
  • Jun 25, 2015 9:26pm Jun 25, 2015 9:26pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} LONG USDJPY 123.27
Zero drawdown so far
  • #307
  • Jun 25, 2015 10:18pm Jun 25, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting Hurst
The market is not random, the people here that say it is do not understand or have the correct analysis tools to make this comment. The market is pure supply and demand, what you can see every day is the market going to these areas of supply or demand to get the orders. To say that the people chasing these orders are just randomly entering the market on a whim is just foolish. You may not be able to say exactly where a market is going by when but clearly that does not mean its random, it means that you lack the tools to uncover its driving force....
I humbly disagree.

If the market is NOT random, then it can be predicted. If it can be predicted then there would be no market.
Therefore the market MUST BE RANDOM to exist.
  • #308
  • Jun 25, 2015 10:25pm Jun 25, 2015 10:25pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I humbly disagree. If the market is NOT random, then it can be predicted. If it can be predicted then there would be no market. Therefore the market MUST BE RANDOM to exist.
The market is sometimes random and sometimes non random! Do you humbly agree? If it cant b predicted sometimes then we have no reason to be in this business. We just gambling
  • #309
  • Jun 25, 2015 10:32pm Jun 25, 2015 10:32pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} The market is sometimes random and sometimes non random! Do you humbly agree? If it cant b predicted sometimes then we have no reason to be in this business. We just gambling

I humbly agree (:

.. even though, the non-random part is in itself very hard to predict and is not reliable (the non random part disappears over time).
So, yes we are just gambling.
  • #310
  • Jun 25, 2015 10:39pm Jun 25, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I humbly agree (: .. even though, the non-random part is in itself very hard to predict and is not reliable (the non random part disappears over time). So, yes we are just gambling.
I also agree with you. That meants theres a little window of opportunity. Most of the time we are gambling. Youre right
  • #311
  • Jun 25, 2015 11:33pm Jun 25, 2015 11:33pm
i disagree...

it is not randomness....
  • #312
  • Jun 25, 2015 11:39pm Jun 25, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting Nfp
i disagree... it is not randomness....
What would you call it my dear experienced nfp?
  • #313
  • Jun 25, 2015 11:49pm Jun 25, 2015 11:49pm
Quoting ephisi
By the way im also short audusd from 0.7740 with a target of 50pips. I posted that on my thread. Even if market is 90% random we can trade the 10% non randomness
Closed audusd short for 35 pips at 0.7705. Market is now random for audusd. Price could head anywhere from here
  • #314
  • Jun 26, 2015 12:01am Jun 26, 2015 12:01am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Close but not exactly. Left my job and tried to trade using charts (at the bank we don't even have charts lol) only the order book. Trying to look for the same thing on charts is were the break between institutions and retail happens, This is the whole point You are all not looking at the same thing we are looking at ... so this is a serious issue because there is so much random noise and price levels that are not of any importance to the big money. We are only interested in the market when it leaves VWAP and thats where the truth of the...
What you are describing is common practice in many markets, even though things have changed a bit with recent legal disputes about market rigging etc.

You seem to emphasise your personal story, but not give a lot of detail about VWAP channel definitions etc. Why? Just wondering where you are going with this...
  • #315
  • Jun 26, 2015 12:10am Jun 26, 2015 12:10am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Closed audusd short for 35 pips at 0.7705. Market is now random for audusd. Price could head anywhere from here
Was nice hanging out with you guys today. See ya some time. Will post usdjpy exit when she rallies
  • #316
  • Jun 26, 2015 12:24am Jun 26, 2015 12:24am
Having just tripled an account on a friendly basis for a friend of mine, over a period of a year, something I should point out that I would have been incapable of a few years ago when I was still learning, I reiterate that forex trading is not for everyone. I do sympathise with those who devote huge chunks of their lives and fail. There have been times when I believed it was impossible.
Gone to a better place
  • #317
  • Jun 26, 2015 12:30am Jun 26, 2015 12:30am
Quoting smikester
Having just tripled an account on a friendly basis for a friend of mine, over a period of a year, something I should point out that I would have been incapable of a few years ago when I was still learning, I reiterate that forex trading is not for everyone. I do sympathise with those who devote huge chunks of their lives and fail. There have been times when I believed it was impossible.
Most things in life are not for most people. At the heart of it it's about stopping the "I wish" thinking and switching to an "I will" mindset
  • #318
  • Jun 26, 2015 1:10am Jun 26, 2015 1:10am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I humbly disagree. If the market is NOT random, then it can be predicted. If it can be predicted then there would be no market. Therefore the market MUST BE RANDOM to exist.
Hello Mingary,

there are documented examples of people calling the market tops and bottoms on a regular basis, Gann's wheat trade was one such example. No one knows Gann's methods however they were rediscovered by a chap called DR. Jerome Baumring his work was later also simplified by Cowan who made some really precise stock market calls picking the low of the 2009 reversal to the day.

So clearly there is some sort of motive force that drive markets that can be predicted in advance, otherwise it would not have been possible for the people mentioned above to predict the market. I do agree that the market appears to be random, mathematically within our current limits of understanding the market exhibit random behavior. Humans as a group tend to herd, and in doing so exhibit non random behavior. Every trader here will see a large falling bar in a market and be inclined to go short, just as an up bar will cause traders to go long, we all get the same urge to chase a market. Seasoned traders will wait for a pull back, evaluate the real trend direction and decide if they take the trade or not. New traders will just jump in.

Humans are prone to make the same decisions, hence we can be manipulated, that's why you see markets often run the wrong way before a big move. That wrong move catches new traders the wrong way in the market, the move appears random, but you will see that it is often back to a previous supply or demand point. A true random market would not do that it would just go to any point, but these markets show time and time again that previous areas of supply and demand will be tested again. Can you predict where it will go and when? I cannot do that yet but I can do it sometimes, if I can do that with the little I know then it shows to me it is possible with more knowledge to do it again.

I do however respect your opinion, and I enjoy discussing the markets with you and other traders on this forum.
  • #319
  • Jun 26, 2015 1:35am Jun 26, 2015 1:35am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Close but not exactly. Left my job and tried to trade using charts (at the bank we don't even have charts lol) only the order book. Trying to look for the same thing on charts is were the break between institutions and retail happens, This is the whole point You are all not looking at the same thing we are looking at ... so this is a serious issue because there is so much random noise and price levels that are not of any importance to the big money. We are only interested in the market when it leaves VWAP and thats where the truth of the...
Having a good friend who used to work in the banks trading forex for little over 10 years a lot of what is said is untrue. Some of what she did was just processing orders for clients, but there were also times when she used to take positions for herself. Sometimes this would be long term sometimes it would be taking positions for days. What did they use to trade? The same standard indicators that you or I use, of course looking at charts!...
  • #320
  • Jun 26, 2015 2:41am Jun 26, 2015 2:41am
Quoting Hurst
{quote} Hello Mingary, there are documented examples of people calling the market tops and bottoms on a regular basis, Gann's wheat trade was one such example. No one knows Gann's methods however they were rediscovered by a chap called DR. Jerome Baumring his work was later also simplified by Cowan who made some really precise stock market calls picking the low of the 2009 reversal to the day. So clearly there is some sort of motive force that drive markets that can be predicted in advance, otherwise it would not have been possible for the people...
I humbly agree to disagree.
The interpretation of the data does not mean that it's not random.
Experienced professionals or total newbies may see different reasons for a price move. It does not mean that the price action is not random.
IMO random or not does not matter for making a few $$ here and there. Also, I disregard any predictions - especially from those who claim that their predictions are documented.
I am so contrarian that my intense "contrarianism" even applies to this statement (:
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