@medici, @Warburg, @TranceTrader
Many thanks for your comprehensive explanations.
Many thanks for your comprehensive explanations.
Fooled by randomness 15 replies
Best book on randomness in markets and market probabilities? 4 replies
MM - Using randomness against Asymmetric Leverage 12 replies
Thoughts on randomness and systems 40 replies
Poll: Are trends rooted in randomness? 16 replies
Disliked{quote} This goes against the very idea of a TREND!If price is random how did we get EU from 139 to 105 Random?True if you trading 1-5min charts but not true H4 daily weekly.I disagree with your entire outlook. Many examples of strong trends like AN AU NU GN GA EN EA etc list goes on. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} (I know you're not talking to me but ...) to be fair, the essential underlying point of the OP's post, though he hugely overstates it, is correct, i.e. that many amateur traders spend most of their lives being "fooled by randomness" - as Nicholas Nassim Taleb famously put it, in his book of that title. Unfortunately, though, some of the assertions the OP makes, doubtless in an attempt to lend credibility to his perspective, are themselves laughably mistaken, as illustrated in my post above ... so he's not exactly helping his own cause!Ignored
DislikedI am not a professional trader, but i am a professional physics professor. I want to share with you my ideas about randomness. Randomness does not exists. It may exist at the quantum level (i think it doesn't, but someone would disagree with me) but surely not in the classical(i.e. every day life) level. What i mean is that price is random as much as a coin flip. While you can't possibily know the outcome, it s actually not random: it's a simple question of mechanics. So, price is random in the sense that you can't know where is going, but surely...Ignored
DislikedI am not a professional trader, but i am a professional physics professor. I want to share with you my ideas about randomness. Randomness does not exists. It may exist at the quantum level (i think it doesn't, but someone would disagree with me) but surely not in the classical(i.e. every day life) level. What i mean is that price is random as much as a coin flip. While you can't possibily know the outcome, it s actually not random: it's a simple question of mechanics. So, price is random in the sense that you can't know where is going, but surely...Ignored
Dislikedit might be simple, but not very good analogy. trading is betting on the direction the wife is going ahead of time.Ignored
DislikedSummary of the first post: 1. Majority of Retail traders are not successful in the long term. We are led to believe the opposite by the marketeers / internet forums. 2. He was an institutional trader that was doing the normal day to day business of the bank, moving currencies for large clients. There was some speculation involved, but that did not matter as they probably made the commissions anyway on the transactions. His bonuses did not depend on his individual performance. 3. Left his job at the bank & decided to enter the world of forex speculation,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Close but not exactly. Left my job and tried to trade using charts (at the bank we don't even have charts lol) only the order book. Trying to look for the same thing on charts is were the break between institutions and retail happens, This is the whole point You are all not looking at the same thing we are looking at ... so this is a serious issue because there is so much random noise and price levels that are not of any importance to the big money. We are only interested in the market when it leaves VWAP and thats where the truth of the...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Close but not exactly. Left my job and tried to trade using charts (at the bank we don't even have charts lol) only the order book. Trying to look for the same thing on charts is were the break between institutions and retail happens, This is the whole point You are all not looking at the same thing we are looking at ... so this is a serious issue because there is so much random noise and price levels that are not of any importance to the big money. We are only interested in the market when it leaves VWAP and thats where the truth of the...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Close but not exactly. Left my job and tried to trade using charts (at the bank we don't even have charts lol) only the order book. Trying to look for the same thing on charts is were the break between institutions and retail happens, This is the whole point You are all not looking at the same thing we are looking at ... so this is a serious issue because there is so much random noise and price levels that are not of any importance to the big money. We are only interested in the market when it leaves VWAP and thats where the truth of the...Ignored
DislikedThe market is not random, the people here that say it is do not understand or have the correct analysis tools to make this comment. The market is pure supply and demand, what you can see every day is the market going to these areas of supply or demand to get the orders. To say that the people chasing these orders are just randomly entering the market on a whim is just foolish. You may not be able to say exactly where a market is going by when but clearly that does not mean its random, it means that you lack the tools to uncover its driving force....Ignored