Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 283 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,641
  • May 30, 2015 5:36pm May 30, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting digitalko
{quote} Well the chart with 3 TLs was not attached to my previous post. {image}
Trendline #3 is the valid one as per the rules. I guess you wanted to know which trendline was valid. A trendline must connect the latest 2 peaks in a downtrend, number #3 is the valid one, not the others.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,642
  • May 30, 2015 5:40pm May 30, 2015 5:40pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} IMHO, weekly trend was 'down' there. https://charts.mql5.com/7/925/cadjpy...-markets-3.png
Yes, weekly trend was down as seen on your screenshot.

There was no weekly supply imbalance, so weekly was down. By reading the number of weekly candles, it seems there was a monthly demand zone that took control in that rally.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 51 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,643
  • May 30, 2015 5:43pm May 30, 2015 5:43pm
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, I would like to share my thought on EURJPY: 1) Weekly mkt is Sz in Control 2) There are 2 zones in the daily where the mkt can be tested. Pls see attached 3) See also H4 for more details Thks {image} {image}
Daily supply zone tested a few times, used-up. EUR/JPY is bullish, it's retracing a bit with daily demand lower, however daily supply zone has been tested several times and very weak, potential break and removal of supply zone in the next days.

H4 demand zone you drew at the bottom is not correct, you didn't cover the lowest lows, not correct as per the rules.
Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 54 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,644
  • May 30, 2015 5:45pm May 30, 2015 5:45pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} Here is my EURJPY analysis. I think price may come down deeper than you think and daily trend will probably be 'down' there confirming the monthly down trend. Even if I would take a counter trend long in monthly or weekly demand zone, I would be watchful. Monthly : SHORT Weekly: LONG Daily: LONG (but shaky) {image} {image} {image}
EUR/JPY has a bigger picture uptrend, monthly demand in control, 3 months demand zone in control, breaking higher and higher, potential daily longs were formed and if it breaks above weekly supply zone, we could have some strong rallies towards the beginning of the last big drop.

Cheers,
ALfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,645
  • May 30, 2015 5:46pm May 30, 2015 5:46pm
Quoting SD.Trader
{quote} Weekly and Daily TLs are descending. I agree with WS121, that ascending daily TL is not valid Let's see what Alfonso thinks... by the way, I love Alfonso. A real human. My best regards to you seor Alfonso SD.Trader
I agree with you, weekly is in a downtrend, trendline is being respected, not a single weekly full ohcl candle closing above descending trendline.

Thanks for you kind words, doing my best to try and help those who are willing to ask and believe in the rules.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,646
  • May 30, 2015 5:47pm May 30, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting digitalko
Hi, another example. Which ascending TL is correct ? IMO number 1 is correct and 2 is not correct. As per rules second valley in 1TL is not CP as the red candle closed below the blue hammers lowest low forming valley. (both TLs are broken and current TL should be drawn down as 3 CPs occured in the down move) {image}
Correct ascending trendline is #1 because it connects the latest two peaks as per the rules my friend.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,647
  • May 31, 2015 2:22am May 31, 2015 2:22am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I don't understand your chart my friend. You upload a chart, no comments on top, no explanation on the email. That's what I would call a muted chart. Besides the zones you have drawn are all invalid, nothing to do with the rules in this thread. Alfonso

Hello Sir. thank you for your comment. sorry for the chart. i did not post for a long time. Congratulations for the great work
  • #5,648
  • Edited 4:58am May 31, 2015 3:44am | Edited 4:58am
Hi All,

Wanna share this trade which i traded last week.

USDCHF
********
Monthly Side market
Weekly Side Market- but Down Bias
Daily is Down Trend.
Entry by LTF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 154 KB
  • #5,649
  • May 31, 2015 1:34pm May 31, 2015 1:34pm
Hello Alfonso and traders,
There are 3 TLs on my chart.
Are they drawn correctly in sequence 3,2,1 as they were created?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYmonthly.jpg Size: 316 KB
  • #5,650
  • Jun 2, 2015 3:24am Jun 2, 2015 3:24am
Quoting digitalko
Hello Alfonso and traders, There are 3 TLs on my chart. Are they drawn correctly in sequence 3,2,1 as they were created? {image}

  1. Trendline #3 would have been valid after making that higher high, but the 1st point you used to draw it is not correct. You should have used the fractal low (white dot) of the bullish candle, not the fractal low to the left
  2. Trendline #2 would have also been valid as well but now we have an ascending TL#1, but we don't have an uptrend, we have bullish consolidation because 1 monthly demand zone has been taken out, so even though we have an ascending trendline, we don't have a monthly uptrend

Hope it makes sense!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 297 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,651
  • Jun 2, 2015 3:26am Jun 2, 2015 3:26am
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, Wanna share this trade which i traded last week. USDCHF ******** Monthly Side market Weekly Side Market- but Down Bias Daily is Down Trend. Entry by LTF {image}
Just a quick note on the Daily tiemframe on USD/CHF, at the moment you posted your Daily chart it was not in a downtrend, it was a bearish consolidation. Descending trendline had been broken and an ascending D1 trendline was not possible because we didn't have two valid valleys as per the rules. For a downtrend we need Daily descending trendline and 1 daily demand zone taken out.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,652
  • Jun 2, 2015 5:49am Jun 2, 2015 5:49am
Hello Alfonso and all traders,
Thank you for my TLs reply.
TL1 explanation was great as I did not realize myself that TL1 is correct, but the trend is not up as demand level was taken out. Thank you.

I am attaching another tricky one. It is GU and M chart.
Is TL drawn correctly? And is the trend no more up after the demand number 5 was taken out? TL stays valid until full OHCL candle under the TL is created.

Am I correct? I hope my questions help others too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M.jpg Size: 461 KB
  • #5,653
  • Jun 2, 2015 7:33am Jun 2, 2015 7:33am
Hi all,
another example. Has anybody any ideas why the drawn levels and TLs sequence is not correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AC D.jpg Size: 497 KB
  • #5,654
  • Jun 2, 2015 10:05am Jun 2, 2015 10:05am
Quoting digitalko
Hi all, another example. Has anybody any ideas why the drawn levels and TLs sequence is not correct? {image}
All 3 trendlines in the sequence are incorrect my friend. You did not follow the rules, rules which were also mentioned in a previous post. If you break the rules it can result in unnecessary losses as well creating a wrong multiple timeframe analysis.

Apply the rules and try to upload a new screenshot of this same pair.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,655
  • Jun 2, 2015 10:06am Jun 2, 2015 10:06am
Quoting digitalko
Hello Alfonso and all traders, Thank you for my TLs reply. TL1 explanation was great as I did not realize myself that TL1 is correct, but the trend is not up as demand level was taken out. Thank you. I am attaching another tricky one. It is GU and M chart. Is TL drawn correctly? And is the trend no more up after the demand number 5 was taken out? TL stays valid until full OHCL candle under the TL is created. Am I correct? I hope my questions help others too. {image}
Monthly ascending trendline on GBP/USD is incorrect, you didn't follow the rules, you are allowed to draw an ascending trendline when you have 2 obious valleys or 3 or more consecutive CP patterns of demand.

Apply the rules and try to upload a new screenshot of this same pair.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,656
  • Jun 2, 2015 3:10pm Jun 2, 2015 3:10pm
Hi Alfonso,
I am really trying hard to apply the rules and I can see that TLs are not that easy to draw correctly at least for me at this moment.
I redrawn both charts so please give me comment if I am right this time. I do no want to bother rather showing bad and good examples, the complex view on how to do it right in different scenarios and I am picking at least for me the tricky ones.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AC D.jpg Size: 518 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M.jpg Size: 472 KB
  • #5,657
  • Jun 2, 2015 4:01pm Jun 2, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting digitalko
Hi Alfonso, I am really trying hard to apply the rules and I can see that TLs are not that easy to draw correctly at least for me at this moment. I redrawn both charts so please give me comment if I am right this time. I do no want to bother rather showing bad and good examples, the complex view on how to do it right in different scenarios and I am picking at least for me the tricky ones. {image} {image}
i'm also interested :-)
  • #5,658
  • Jun 3, 2015 1:38am Jun 3, 2015 1:38am
Quoting Likan
{quote} i'm also interested :-)
I think everyone is kind of interested here, because this is probably the most subjective subject in S&D. I watched every video even couple of times, read everything here and I'm praciting the method for not so short time but I still have doubts with trend lines especially when obviousness is not so obvious

Alfonso, I know how much rookie these questions might seem to you, but we really can't get things sometimes and need more examples

By the way, you are and what you do here is really great, thank you for your patience and great assistance.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,659
  • Jun 3, 2015 2:22am Jun 3, 2015 2:22am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I think everyone is kind of interested here, because this is probably the most subjective subject in S&D. I watched every video even couple of times, read everything here and I'm praciting the method for not so short time but I still have doubts with trend lines especially when obviousness is not so obvious Alfonso, I know how much rookie these questions might seem to you, but we really can't get things...
I am happy to hear that clearing TLs questions will help more of us. I propose posting tricky scenarious. I will be posting some more if it wont bother Alfonso to comment or correct us. I hope there will be some progress so I do not look like retard
  • #5,660
  • Jun 3, 2015 4:26am Jun 3, 2015 4:26am
Quoting digitalko
{quote} I am happy to hear that clearing TLs questions will help more of us. I propose posting tricky scenarious. I will be posting some more if it wont bother Alfonso to comment or correct us. I hope there will be some progress so I do not look like retard
Tricky scenarios are welcome my friend. These will help you understand the rules and how they hold over time.
Looking forward to seeing some, tricky or not tricky ones!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
5 traders viewing now