Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 282 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,621
  • Edited 6:04pm May 19, 2015 4:34pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting umairsheikh2
Hi Alfonso, First of all, I really thankful to you for sharing mind blowing information and real approach to the forex market without BS. I can see your YT videos from post 1 but unfortunately I am unable to watch other videos beside post 1. Here is screenshot: {image} I will be glad, if you will allow me to watch other videos for clearing more concepts. Thanks. Umair (Umee)
Umee, some videos have been removed/hidden, so you can't watch them, it's maybe a couple. New videos contain the same information but even clearer.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,622
  • May 19, 2015 4:46pm May 19, 2015 4:46pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Umee, some videos have been removed/hidden, so you can't watch them, it's maybe a couple. New videos containt he same information but even clearer. Cheers, Alfonso
Got it! Thanks alot!
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #5,623
  • May 21, 2015 6:17am May 21, 2015 6:17am
Hi Alphonso,

I've just started some paper trade forward testing to learn and gain confidence. Can you tell me what you think? Here are my three trades thus far:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EU...d-Trade-Setup/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...nd-Technicals/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...-and-Analysis/

Thanks!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #5,624
  • May 21, 2015 6:27am May 21, 2015 6:27am
Hi Alfonso,

Do you have a track record of the win percentage of your trades if looking for 1:1. I know you target bigger R:R, but was wondering if looking for 1:1 would give more than 50% winrate.

If you don't know, maybe some people from the "Set-and-forget" community did - have they shared their results?

It seems to me that if I follow a 1:1 rule I will make some good returns. And then build on that and the better I become use a higher R:R target.

Thanks,
Boris
  • #5,625
  • May 21, 2015 8:29am May 21, 2015 8:29am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Hi Alfonso, Do you have a track record of the win percentage of your trades if looking for 1:1. I know you target bigger R:R, but was wondering if looking for 1:1 would give more than 50% winrate. If you don't know, maybe some people from the "Set-and-forget" community did - have they shared their results? It seems to me that if I follow a 1:1 rule I will make some good returns. And then build on that and the better I become use a higher R:R target. Thanks, Boris
I don't have any trading record for a 1:1, I would have never thought of becoming a trader if I wanted to win 1:1, I would call that gambling not trading

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,626
  • May 22, 2015 10:14am May 22, 2015 10:14am
Hi again,
I have been going through your thread a little more, trying to understand the concepts better, but I still feel a little overwhelmed.

Do you offer videos where you explain your setups or some 'beginners' article that walks you through the strategy? That would be great!

Rex
  • #5,627
  • May 24, 2015 4:55am May 24, 2015 4:55am
Hi Alfonso and SD traders,
I am attaching one setup from FT2 CADJPY for learning purposes. In my opinion the setup comply with all rules but still did not work. The thing is that it is my point of view. Can anybody of you give me reason why you would not take that setup?
If not, then great, and so we discussed another good example of CP trade setup.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY setup.jpg Size: 417 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY result.jpg Size: 372 KB
  • #5,628
  • May 24, 2015 5:48am May 24, 2015 5:48am
Quoting digitalko
Hi Alfonso and SD traders, I am attaching one setup from FT2 CADJPY for learning purposes. In my opinion the setup comply with all rules but still did not work. The thing is that it is my point of view. Can anybody of you give me reason why you would not take that setup? If not, then great, and so we discussed another good example of CP trade setup. {image} {image}
Sorry mate I tried to open the pair's chart on FT2 but I think I couldn't because I'm signed for basic service, but anyway, here's what I think:

  1. your H4 trend line is up (tick)
  2. your D1 trend line is up (I disagree). The last 2 peaks to the left of your daily supply area should be connected to draw a DESCENDING trend line, because the peak that's below your drown supply area did not make a lower low... from your point of view, it's assumed that this peak connected with the previous one form a descending trend line that you thought it was broken by the up move... but this isn't a valid trend line.... so the daily trend line is still descending and hasn't been broken yet... therefore, by the rules, you're not supposed to buy
  3. also, you missed a supply zone as a CP pattern in the down move on the D1 chart, starts 2 candles from were you drew you supply... that's the zone that was respected in this down move against your entry.
  4. You probably missed having a look at the weekly chart, from what I can see here, it's in a down trend... so your entry, although was good on H4 chart, but was against the trends in 2 higher TFs

Hope that helps.
Not sure if I made my point clear enough and/or my point even valid.

Feel free Alfonso and all fellows to correct me.

  • #5,629
  • May 24, 2015 8:13am May 24, 2015 8:13am
Hi All,

I would like to share my thought on EURJPY:

1) Weekly mkt is Sz in Control
2) There are 2 zones in the daily where the mkt can be tested. Pls see attached
3) See also H4 for more details

Thks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 34 KB
  • #5,630
  • May 25, 2015 12:24am May 25, 2015 12:24am
Quoting digitalko
Hi Alfonso and SD traders, I am attaching one setup from FT2 CADJPY for learning purposes. In my opinion the setup comply with all rules but still did not work. The thing is that it is my point of view. Can anybody of you give me reason why you would not take that setup? If not, then great, and so we discussed another good example of CP trade setup. {image} {image}
IMHO, weekly trend was 'down' there.


https://charts.mql5.com/7/925/cadjpy...-markets-3.png
Trade what you see..
  • #5,631
  • Edited 1:20am May 25, 2015 12:59am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} IMHO, weekly trend was 'down' there. https://charts.mql5.com/7/925/cadjpy...-markets-3.png
Weekly and Daily TLs are descending.
I agree with WS121, that ascending daily TL is not valid
Let's see what Alfonso thinks...

by the way, I love Alfonso. A real human. My best regards to you seņor Alfonso
SD.Trader
  • #5,632
  • Edited 2:21am May 25, 2015 1:21am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, I would like to share my thought on EURJPY: 1) Weekly mkt is Sz in Control 2) There are 2 zones in the daily where the mkt can be tested. Pls see attached 3) See also H4 for more details Thks {image} {image}
Here is my EURJPY analysis. I think price may come down deeper than you think and daily trend will probably be 'down' there confirming the monthly down trend. Even if I would take a counter trend long in monthly or weekly demand zone, I would be watchful.
Monthly : SHORT
Weekly: LONG
Daily: LONG (but shaky)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYMonthly.png Size: 48 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 49 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 47 KB
Trade what you see..
  • #5,633
  • May 25, 2015 12:23pm May 25, 2015 12:23pm
Hello traders,
refering to my previous CADJPY charts I amattaching another chart for educational purpouse.
It is AUDUSD monthly chart with 3 trendlines.

IMHO all of them are correct trendlines, but only one of them is correst as monthly TL per SD trading rules.
IMHO number 3 is the correct one, because it connects last two peaks and second peak makes lower low.

As in my previous daily CADJPY chart the downword move hasnt removed number 1 ascending TL yet but it does not mean that the monthly trend is up as we are suppose to connect last two peaks. Number 1 TL is the higher TF trendline.

TL number 2 is more aggressive "steeper" then 3, but it is not respecting last two peaks rule.

I guess this issue determines if the trader will be profitable or not, as TLs are as important as SD levels, but in some cases lot more tricky to be identified and drawn correctly.

Alfonso please be so kind and make the webinar about tricky TLs. Because I thing the concept is simple but, real application is pain in my you know what.

Cheers
  • #5,634
  • May 25, 2015 11:24pm May 25, 2015 11:24pm
Quoting digitalko
Hello traders, refering to my previous CADJPY charts I amattaching another chart for educational purpouse. It is AUDUSD monthly chart with 3 trendlines. IMHO all of them are correct trendlines, but only one of them is correst as monthly TL per SD trading rules. IMHO number 3 is the correct one, because it connects last two peaks and second peak makes lower low. As in my previous daily CADJPY chart the downword move hasnt removed number 1 ascending TL yet but it does not mean that the monthly trend is up as we are suppose to connect last two peaks....
Already covered. Here you go... watch from beginning to end. Don't assume you got it before Alfonso stops talking
Inserted Video
  • #5,635
  • May 26, 2015 2:22am May 26, 2015 2:22am
Quoting digitalko
Hello traders, refering to my previous CADJPY charts I amattaching another chart for educational purpouse. It is AUDUSD monthly chart with 3 trendlines. IMHO all of them are correct trendlines, but only one of them is correst as monthly TL per SD trading rules. IMHO number 3 is the correct one, because it connects last two peaks and second peak makes lower low. As in my previous daily CADJPY chart the downword move hasnt removed number 1 ascending TL yet but it does not mean that the monthly trend is up as we are suppose to connect last two peaks....
Well the chart with 3 TLs was not attached to my previous post.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trendlines.jpg Size: 203 KB
  • #5,636
  • May 26, 2015 2:41am May 26, 2015 2:41am
Hi,
another example.
Which ascending TL is correct ?
IMO number 1 is correct and 2 is not correct.

As per rules second valley in 1TL is not CP as the red candle closed below the blue hammers lowest low forming valley.

(both TLs are broken and current TL should be drawn down as 3 CPs occured in the down move)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TL AU D.jpg Size: 206 KB
  • #5,637
  • May 26, 2015 9:23am May 26, 2015 9:23am
Quoting RexTexas
Hi again, I have been going through your thread a little more, trying to understand the concepts better, but I still feel a little overwhelmed. Do you offer videos where you explain your setups or some 'beginners' article that walks you through the strategy? That would be great! Rex
Post #1 shows most steps, you have a lot of free videos that show step by step how it works. You just need to watch them over and over and practice a LOT. Share your thoughts and setups here, that will help a lot.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,638
  • May 26, 2015 2:21pm May 26, 2015 2:21pm
I just want to say thank you to Alfonso, he is a great man and helped me a lot in understanding supply and demand. But if you are a newbie be ready to work hard because nobody is going to do your work for you
  • #5,639
  • May 30, 2015 2:56pm May 30, 2015 2:56pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: I.USDXDaily.png Size: 32 KB
  • #5,640
  • May 30, 2015 5:24pm May 30, 2015 5:24pm
Quoting CaptainClaw
{image}
I don't understand your chart my friend. You upload a chart, no comments on top, no explanation on the email. That's what I would call a muted chart.

Besides the zones you have drawn are all invalid, nothing to do with the rules in this thread.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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