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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,061
  • Edited 4:14pm May 18, 2015 4:01pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} ... If nobody is squeezing EURUSD at these levels, then what is it? A USD weakness story? A USD profit taking situation? Or just some late bulls running the no man land? I don't think FED will kick the can to next year. What's your view?
Your questions sound very "emotionally" attached to one side. Why do you say USD weakness? why are you implying that strength in a pair can only be unidirectional?

 

  1. Look my point is that is a very bad mistake to get attached to one side by default. Its one of the most common mistakes you find in traders. They get married to one side and one analysis and struggle a lot to change their mindset when circumstances changes.

  1. An example of this is some old traditional folks outside of financial world that invest in the typical buy and hold forever in particular stocks (very common in the UK, US) so they get attach to very traditional companies (e.g Tesco in the UK, BAC in the US, etc, etc you get the point), they have very hard time thinking that these big companies can go wrong or its time to sell and they just keep holding forever and never thinking that its impossible they wont come back to their peak times....

  1. Closer to forex. the euro has the biggest stigma in all pairs. It has such a bad karma coverage in the media, especially since the Debt Crisis, that retail usually fail to see the forest for the trees when euro start rallying or retracing. It's not uncommon to hear people in these boards screaming FCK euro, dead to euro, die, doom, blah blah.


Even some very vocal traders around here, get so blindfolded with "Euro to Parity" that they miss 1 quarter of trading and a +1000 ticks retrace in euro and still are convince they are good traders because they "know the doom scenario in the euro"...etc.

My point is, don't get so stuck in "late bulls running the no man land" approach as the only ones in no man land are the late ones who hasn't seen the 1000s ticks retrace yet and just keep repeating like parrots the long term macro outcome [parity] that, in the case of the euro, even the most sluggish trader know it by now ....

------------- -------------- ------------- -------------- ------------- -------------- ------------- -------------- ------------- --------------

Lets see how it plays out this week after the Minutes first. For now, 1.132x failed to hold the roll by a handful of ticks leaving 1.128x wide open and a micro range in play until the European opening (1.128x / 1.135x)...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,062
  • May 18, 2015 4:39pm May 18, 2015 4:39pm
[quote=sisse;8269404]{quote} Your questions sound very "emotionally" attached to one side.

Yes, I admit that I am married to one direction this time, hehe... I just started trading not too long ago, so not experienced enough to see how swings play out.
I also missed the retrace because I am new and was afraid of "counter-trend" trades, but I don't regret that I stayed sideline. I still learnt a bunch observing from a distance.
While being completely open to both directions, I am just more convinced on the weaker EUR as the fundamentals are there...at least for now.
There has to be some strong evidence of EU recovery/FED next year hike for the divorce to come...

Thank you for the guidance like always!
  • #135,063
  • May 19, 2015 1:32am May 19, 2015 1:32am
chancing some EU longs @ 1,1280

USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,064
  • May 19, 2015 2:06am May 19, 2015 2:06am
Quoting USD-Bear
chancing some EU longs @ 1,1280 USDOLLAR D1: {image}
stopped -10, waiting for better entry
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,065
  • May 19, 2015 2:32am May 19, 2015 2:32am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Oh damn. If they make 'em quit manipulating how are we going to make any money? Half of chartreading is figuring out when they're up to it.
Guess we don't have to start worrying just yet. Who want's to look at the London opening ranges on this
chart and tell me they didn't know about/plan big moves like this three days in advance?
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  • #135,066
  • May 19, 2015 2:34am May 19, 2015 2:34am
uffff, in a very unexpected opening range euro lost +100 ticks in 5 minutes and the intraday range on a soft ECB comment.

Way out of proportion the move for the trigger that makes me wonder that if we have some serious capitulation / clearing of mid term shorts on the highs before the FED in June.

Out of range move so European session skewed until the news set the floor. Nothing to see here. 1.128x looks out of range for now.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,067
  • May 19, 2015 2:49am May 19, 2015 2:49am
Quoting sisse
uffff, in a very unexpected opening range euro lost +100 ticks in 5 minutes and the intraday range on a soft ECB comment. Way out of proportion the move for the trigger that makes me wonder that if we have some serious capitulation / clearing of mid term shorts on the highs before the FED in June. Out of range move so European session skewed until the news set the floor. Nothing to see here. 1.128x looks out of range for now. sisse
And the pick up of the EU bond market is just adding some tailwind to the pair.
Can we call this a knee-jerk reaction which might be faded?
  • #135,068
  • May 19, 2015 2:57am May 19, 2015 2:57am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Guess we don't have to start worrying just yet. Who want's to look at the London opening ranges on this chart and tell me they didn't know about/plan big moves like this three days in advance? {image}
Hi. Could you explain what exactly the smart money were doing 3 days ago to avail of this drop now? ..in simple terms please, am trying hard to grasp such market behaviour ..thanks, appreciate your posts.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #135,069
  • May 19, 2015 2:58am May 19, 2015 2:58am
bit puzzled here, maybe it wants 11.880 again....

USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,070
  • May 19, 2015 2:59am May 19, 2015 2:59am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} And the pick up of the EU bond market is just adding some tailwind to the pair. Can we call this a knee-jerk reaction which might be faded?
Not sure mate. It reminds me of early this year when Dollar was going up non stop.

Quoting sisse
uffff, in a very unexpected opening range euro lost +100 ticks in 5 minutes and the intraday range on a soft ECB comment. Way out of proportion the move for the trigger that makes me wonder that if we have some serious capitulation / clearing of mid term shorts on the highs before the FED in June. Out of range move so European session skewed until the news set the floor. Nothing to see here. 1.128x looks out of range for now. sisse
I hear you sir, same here unfortunately. I'm totally paralyzed, don't know what to do next.
  • #135,071
  • May 19, 2015 3:02am May 19, 2015 3:02am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} And the pick up of the EU bond market is just adding some tailwind to the pair. Can we call this a knee-jerk reaction which might be faded?
Well it was a strong intraday move out of range. I am personally in soft buy mode (since yesterday) on the fundamental front. After this move and out of expirience I am about to get technical soft buy too. If this is what I think is (a clearing of mid term shorts 1.146x) the extension to 1.178x will be on the cards and the low of the month will be set this week. As usually in macro areas, fundamentals trigger first then technicals.

As long as we hold the last breakout in W/D and intraday I am actively looking to buy. For now given the strong out of range move I am just waiting for the news to make a intraday floor first... we'll see in the next hour or so...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,072
  • May 19, 2015 3:08am May 19, 2015 3:08am
Quoting ws121
{quote} Not sure mate. It reminds me of early this year when Dollar was going up non stop. {quote} I hear you sir, same here unfortunately. I'm totally paralyzed, don't know what to do next.
Thank you for the comment!
Well...I don't know. H4 closed outside the neckline of the potential head and shoulder formation...hard to ignore that...but it is also because of the ECB comments...so not a normal trading behavior...
I suspect that the market will slowly fade this action with time, so I will pay attention if they manage to close back up the neckline in the next H4 candle.
In any case, today can be an important tone changing day for the rally. The sky is even more locked...
  • #135,073
  • May 19, 2015 3:15am May 19, 2015 3:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well it was a strong intraday move out of range. I am personally in soft buy mode (since yesterday) on the fundamental front. After this move and out of expirience I am about to get technical soft buy too. If this is what I think is (a clearing of mid term shorts 1.146x) the extension to 1.178x will be on the cards and the low of the month will be set this week. As usually in macro areas, fundamentals trigger first then technicals. As long as we hold the last breakout in W/D and intraday I am actively looking to buy. For now given...
Thank you Sisse!
In your book, do you use candle formation as indicators? I am not very good with calculating levels yet, but I read candles. The disadvantage of candles of course is that it doesn't tell you how far the prices go.
I am waiting to see if the following candles can close back up the neckline...if not...In my opinion we are in a bearish market again.
  • #135,074
  • Edited 3:41am May 19, 2015 3:26am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Thank you for the comment! Well...I don't know. H4 closed outside the neckline of the potential head and shoulder formation...hard to ignore that...but it is also because of the ECB comments...so not a normal trading behavior... I suspect that the market will slowly fade this action with time, so I will pay attention if they manage to close back up the neckline in the next H4 candle. In any case, today can be an important tone changing day for the rally. The sky is even more locked...
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Thank you Sisse! In your book, do you use candle formation as indicators? I am not very good with calculating levels yet, but I read candles. The disadvantage of candles of course is that it doesn't tell you how far the prices go. I am waiting to see if the following candles can close back up the neckline...if not...In my opinion we are in a bearish market again.
On my charts, I have a strong demand zone on H4 (1.1131-1.1158) that might be hold this move. It's also sitting within a non fresh daily demand zone.
Then another demand zone (1.1066-1.1127) H4.
If sisse's and your analysis are to come true, one of the 2 zones should give a very strong support.

In any case, please keep us informed of your analysis updates.
Thanks and good luck all.
  • #135,075
  • May 19, 2015 3:33am May 19, 2015 3:33am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Hi. Could you explain what exactly the smart money were doing 3 days ago to avail of this drop now? ..in simple terms please, am trying hard to grasp such market behaviour ..thanks, appreciate your posts.
The aqua dots on the chart are the London opening range. See how you have 3 days of positioning where the ranges are inside each other? This is not something you want to ignore. (I've mentioned this before http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post8221085, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post8216814).

This hint gets stronger even because

A) This is big daily R area

B) This area is close to major psyche level 1500 (personally I thought it would go to at least 1480, but you have to go with London's opinion)

B) When you put any momentum indie there you can see the divergence where the daily R is, and if you use the TDI you can see the downswing has good momentum too.

C) If you put a fib on the lower low, lower high of the move and see that it can't hold the 50% retrace - that's about where you'd like to enter somewhere between there and the top. (All credit to Gator for this idea i.e - a method for getting in as close to where the big boys did as you can on a retrace, when whatever method you are using make you think they've called a top where you think one should be, and then using that swing to guess what the targets might be.)
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  • #135,076
  • May 19, 2015 3:34am May 19, 2015 3:34am
Quoting ws121
{quote} {quote} On my charts, I have a strong demand zone on H4 (1.131-1.158) that might be hold this move. It's also sitting within a non fresh daily demand zone. Then another demand zone (1.066-1.127) H4. If sisse's and your analysis are to come true, one of the 2 zones should give a very strong support. In any case, please keep us informed of your analysis updates. Thanks and good luck all.
Sorry, do you mean (1.1131-1.1158) and (1.1066-1.1127)? I am a bit confused.
The pair's luck of going up is about to run out, but maybe not this week...ECB keeps putting pressure on the EURO, and FED will hike sooner or later. So it is a long term bearish market. Timing is always hard, so I think a mean approach would be don't be too greedy and don't over leverage, very very conservative money management...
  • #135,077
  • May 19, 2015 3:46am May 19, 2015 3:46am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Sorry, do you mean (1.1131-1.1158) and (1.1066-1.1127)? I am a bit confused. The pair's luck of going up is about to run out, but maybe not this week...ECB keeps putting pressure on the EURO, and FED will hike sooner or later. So it is a long term bearish market. Timing is always hard, so I think a mean approach would be don't be too greedy and don't over leverage, very very conservative money management...
Yes, you're right, I just corrected them.
I agree with you on the money management warning. Though, on my charts, daily trend is still up (just got broken by today's move) but needs to be confirmed ny the end of this week.
  • #135,078
  • May 19, 2015 3:49am May 19, 2015 3:49am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} The aqua dots on the chart are the London opening range. See how you have 3 days of positioning where the ranges are inside each other? This is not something you want to ignore. (I've mentioned this before http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post8221085, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post8216814). This hint gets stronger even because A) This is big daily R area B) This area is close to major psyche level 1500 (personally I thought it would go to at least 1480, but you have to...
Thank you MissPips!
May I ask what MOFU indicates in the Gator's world? The place where big boys want to enter/exit? It has puzzled me for a while now, hehe...
I will try to learn this fib system and see how it works on me. Thank you!
  • #135,079
  • May 19, 2015 3:57am May 19, 2015 3:57am
Here we go for the round of news in Europe. More important than they should, given the opening range....

On the fly numbers. Inline to slighly positive numbers for a move and hold above 1.122x until NY. An overshoot (not expected) will put us back in 1.128x cleaning the last knee jerk reaction in one go. Any important undershoot and the key 1.113x is the key to track that is also momentum line to the down side for a quick run to last swing breakout point in no time ...

GL all trading the rest of the session...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,080
  • May 19, 2015 4:00am May 19, 2015 4:00am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Thank you MissPips! May I ask what MOFU indicates in the Gator's world? The place where big boys want to enter/exit? It has puzzled me for a while now, hehe... I will try to learn this fib system and see how it works on me. Thank you!
Well, I'm not sure I'm using it exactly this the 'orthodox' mofu traders do. (Mofu literally stands for an unprintable term involving a close relative, and metaphorically for an area where price is expected to stall out). I use it (with price action) if I see that, in an area where you'd expect a swing, there are other indications that a swing is taking place (like lower high, lower low, London ranges stalling out etc.) Then I put a fib on that area, and if I see that it's being respected (i.e retraces like it should, profit taking where you'd think, then you can use that to trade from, according to your style (that idea is also from BEMAC, who put forward the idea of 'reverse engineering a fib before it has actually completed the move - i.e. figuring out targets based on how price behaves at zones around the 50% line and whether, thereafter, it acts the way you'd expect, and from Cloggie (fiber loves the fifty))
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