The Really Useless Thread | Page 6751 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,001
  • May 15, 2015 4:22am May 15, 2015 4:22am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} For the life of me I can't make myself hold that second half if it goes into drawdown. Which gets me stopped out by a pip or two on trades that would have been great time after time.
I understand. I've had had various risk appetites throughout the years. I've risked 0 pips on trades, and risked 100's of pips(ticks) on trades. Depends on my current TF selection, number of trades per day/week, and prolly a whole other host of things to numerous to mention. Bottom line I guess, is what your comfy with, and what puts some money in the bank...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #135,002
  • May 15, 2015 4:35am May 15, 2015 4:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Sisse, I think, above red marked statement of yours is not true nowadays. All the FED seems to have cared about is the market (stock market) over the past several years. Traces of that can be seen everywhere. Do you remember the Plunge Protection Team? Do you remember that Citadel is the FED's own hedge fund? Do you remember, that some CB's are actively trading stocks for some time? Remember what Bernanke once said about the stock market? No disrespect here, but your statement is not true. It should be true, but sadly, it is not any longer.......
Imho, the CBs only care for the economy as whole. The pro-market behavior is only because the market has become too important for the overall health of the economy. A bull equity market makes everybody richer. But a unsustainable bubble will crash the economy in the long run. Therefore in the short run, CBs encourage markets behaviors, but doesn't mean they will tolerate the markets' misbehavior forever.

That is precisely why FED should hike this year sooner than later, otherwise the market will try their best to manipulate the MUM. When the talks from mum are not working, mum will spank you.
  • #135,003
  • Edited 5:03am May 15, 2015 4:42am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Sisse, I think, above red marked statement of yours is not true nowadays. All the FED seems to have cared about is the market (stock market) over the past several years. Traces of that can be seen everywhere. Do you remember the Plunge Protection Team? Do you remember that Citadel is the FED's own hedge fund? Do you remember, that some CB's are actively trading stocks for some time? Remember what Bernanke once said about the stock market? No disrespect here, but your statement is not true. It should be true, but sadly, it is not any longer.......
Its a thin line and it's more complex than that. Nobody is naive enough to know that big bastards have huge "lobbying" and massive influence in CB decisions. Most of the top CBankers come from the same corporative background and most of them with huge experience working for them.

However:

  1. We are not talking about the CBs in Zimbabwe or N. Korea !!!, we are talking about major democratic and developed nations in the world (US, ECB, BOJ, etc) sure they ain't saints or everything is perfect but there is strong degree of professionals and those are core technical institutions that more or less do their work properly and ethically. Whatever the conspirational theorist and lefties say about it.
  2. And second and more importantly we are talking about very complex decisions that involves trillions of dollars/euros, etc and can affect a massive impact in the economy and welfare of the population in the mid and long term.
  3. A CB has the difficult task to balance managing expectations, implementing proper monetary mechanism for the economy and at the same time not create unnecessary and potentially dangerous shockwaves in the markets.

The FED cannot just simply, ignore market expectations as much as it cannot ignore macroeconomic factors and the timing of its decision. Neither it can just openly launch a policy "nuclear bomb" (or do nothing) without risking severe consequences if the economy or to the main actors in the economy are not prepared or ready to take it, etc.

In simple words, and not to clear them for all the wrong doings and mistakes, There is a huge range of Greys in between pure Black and White ...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For those tracking the Yen (lots for what i read in the thread) Alerts triggered with the BOJ announcing that maybe back in business soon ... Watchout for UJ finally breaking the 2 months RANGE !!!!

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,004
  • May 15, 2015 5:02am May 15, 2015 5:02am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Imho, the CBs only care for the economy as whole. The pro-market behavior is only because the market has become too important for the overall health of the economy. A bull equity market makes everybody richer. But a unsustainable bubble will crash the economy in the long run. Therefore in the short run, CBs encourage markets behaviors, but doesn't mean they will tolerate the markets' misbehavior forever. That is precisely why FED should hike this year sooner than later, otherwise the market will try their best to manipulate the MUM. When...

Wrong again IMHO

Looking at the wealth effect of all the actions of the CB's of the past years, only the upper 1% (or better upper 0.01%) had severely positive impact.

Either the central bankers are too dense to notice, or they are simply corrupt.

I will go with the latter



Where is my tin foil suit?
  • #135,005
  • May 15, 2015 5:11am May 15, 2015 5:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} we are talking about major democratic and developed nations in the world (US, ECB, BOJ, etc) sure they ain't saints or everything is perfect but there is strong degree of professionals and those are core technical institutions that more or less do their work properly and ethically.

Do you really believe what you say, Sisse?

I am curious, because neither is the FED democratically elected or controlled, neither is the for example the ECB.

Do their work ethically?

Let us see what Jens Weidmann had to say yesterday:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo

The head of Germany's Bundesbank ripped into the European Central Bank on Thursday, saying emergency funding for Greek banks broke the taboo of financing governments and it was not up to central banks to decide who was or wasn't in the euro zone.

Jens Weidmann also said it was questionable whether money printing by the ECB to boost the euro zone economy and halt deflation was necessary…

"Given the ban on monetary financing of states, I don't think it's ok that banks which don't have access to the markets are being granted loans which then finance the bonds of their government, which doesn't have access to the markets itself," Weidmann told German newspaper Handelsblatt according to advance extracts of an interview to be published on Friday.

Asked whether he would be prepared to stop emergency funding to Greek banks and therefore force Athens out of the euro zone, Weidmann said central banks were not responsible for "the make-up of the euro zone or granting aid payments".

Weidmann also hit out at the ECB's bond-buying scheme known as quantitative easing (QE), saying: "The question remains whether the QE programme was really necessary given our primary aim of price stability and how we should assess the risks and side-effects that inevitably come with such a scheme."

He said QE made Eurosystem central banks the biggest creditor of governments and monetary and fiscal policy were becoming increasingly interconnected.

"That can increase the political pressure on central banks when it comes to future monetary policy decisions, especially as member states' drive to reform is also being weakened."



I mean: hey, this is only one tiny example how central banks break legislative or hide their actions behind very dubious legal tricks. When in need, I can find tons of it.......
  • #135,006
  • May 15, 2015 5:20am May 15, 2015 5:20am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Wrong again IMHO Looking at the wealth effect of all the actions of the CB's of the past years, only the upper 1% (or better upper 0.01%) had severely positive impact. Either the central bankers are too dense to notice, or they are simply corrupt. I will go with the latter Where is my tin foil suit?
Alas...what can I say? It is a terrible world we are living in...
At least when the super rich gets richer, they might spill some to the rest of us...if no one is rich, nobody gets nothing...
  • #135,007
  • May 15, 2015 5:31am May 15, 2015 5:31am
enjoy the weekend all, good luck...PTL
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #135,008
  • May 15, 2015 6:16am May 15, 2015 6:16am
How many banksters/institutions have paid fines or been convicted since 2008? I didn't realize it was even a question on whether or not they are corrupt...
  • #135,009
  • May 15, 2015 6:22am May 15, 2015 6:22am
Quoting Magix
Just a little follow up... {image}
EG...

EU at support, GU dove off a cliff. big potential..
  • #135,010
  • May 15, 2015 6:51am May 15, 2015 6:51am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you really believe what you say, Sisse? I am curious, because neither is the FED democratically elected or controlled, neither is the for example the ECB. Do their work ethically? Let us see what Jens Weidmann had to say yesterday: {image} Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo The head of Germany's Bundesbank ripped into the European Central Bank on Thursday, saying emergency funding for Greek banks broke the taboo of financing...

and again speaking of ethical behaviour:


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
UBS Shocked To Learn Ratting Out Fellow Criminals Doesn't Buy DOJ Immunity

read the whole text

But the really "ethical" aspect is this:

snipset:

On Thursday, J.P. Morgan disclosed in a financial filing that “any resolution acceptable to DOJ would require that the Firm plead guilty to an antitrust charge.”
Curiously, it is none other than JPMorgan who courtesy of Troy Rohrbaugh happens to be the Chairman of the Fed's Foreign Exchange Committee.
  • #135,011
  • May 15, 2015 7:05am May 15, 2015 7:05am
Quoting sisse
{quote} YES. {quote} Yes. {quote} The main issue and the critical one is RATEs and the FED decisions (any CB) are about the ECONOMY not about the markets. Bastards (in the markets) will always want and push for UNLIMITED free money and 0 interest rates for ever and ever. They are all making an easy killer in equities. Even the sluggisht amateur Fund Manager would have make money in the last couple of years in equites ... In simple words, one thing is what the ECONOMY NEED and another is what the MARKETS PRESSURE for simple self-interest and easy...
Saw 1.1374, agree 1.14x and 1.15x. have 1.1950 and even 1.22 but not yet.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily515.jpg Size: 304 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily5152.jpg Size: 301 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #135,012
  • May 15, 2015 7:06am May 15, 2015 7:06am
Quoting infinitus
Do you really believe what you say, Sisse?
Oh Markus, Markus. Really? ...

Of course I do. Its not about believing or not is about common sense more than ideological or emotional reasons.

Quote
I am curious, because neither is the FED democratically elected or controlled, neither is the for example the ECB...

Oh la la and since when all technocratic institutions need to be elected to be democratic?....btw Did you vote for Weidmann?

Come on mate, one the most advanced concepts in modern macroeconomic and policy (even for the most extreme left economist) in the 19th century was moving from the medieval times and making CB completely (or at least try) independent of mainstream politics. Before that and in our days having a politicise CB is just a guarantee recipe for disaster.

You can quickly check the endless cases in Latin America, Asia, Africa, Europe and even the almighty GERMANY in the interwar period that is consider in macroeconomic books the WORST mismanagment of monetary policy from a politicised CB ever in the develop world.

Whatever your views on CBs, can you really imagine going to your next election and in the ballot box you have to vote for every single technocrat in every single major policy area:


BALLOT BOX

-------------------
1 Central Bank

Q " A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing. According to the latest econometric result should be vote control the speedd M3 ....."

Please select you candidate from below ///

2. Director of Space Agency

Q " Combining infrared observations from ESAs Herschel space observatory with new data from the Japanese/US Suzaku X-ray satellite, the astronomers detected the winds close to the central black hole as well as their global effect in pushing galactic gas away in a galaxy known as IRAS F11119+3257.... "

Please select you candidate from below ...

3. Director of Hydroelectric and energy projects

Q" .... e" etc etc

---------------------------------------

Democracy is not about electing every single technocrat, neither about voting for every minuscule technical decision otherwise WE WILL BE PARALYSE in indecision.

Quote
I am curious, because neither is the FED democratically elected or controlled, neither is the for example the ECB. Do their work ethically? Let us see what Jens Weidmann had to say yesterday.......

Well even if the guy in my profile picture rise from his grave it will consider Weidmann as an Orthodox in his obsessive views of inflation. You are quoting the most orthodox and conservative monetary economist in a major position across the whole world !!!!. Sure he has a point or two to take but that is not an objective reports neither a balance view of what we are talking about ....

Look. Lets start wrapping it up because we both are moving away from objectivity and technical discussions to the realm of fantasy and subjectivity....

In any case, a pleasure discussing with you as usual .... and lets get ready to rumble with reports and NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,013
  • May 15, 2015 7:24am May 15, 2015 7:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Oh Markus, Markus. Really? ... Of course I do. Its not about believe in or not is about common sense more than ideological or emotional reasons. {quote} Oh la la and since when all technocratic institutions need to be elected to be democratic?. Did you vote for Weidman? Come on mate, one the most advanced concepts in modern macroeconomic and policy (even for the most extreme left economist) in the 19th century was moving from the medieval times and making CB completely (or at least try) independent of mainstream politics. Before that...

Hi Sisse,

yes, CB's would be really a good idea, when they would act truly "independent". Maybe it was that in the past, but times have changed.

How comes, that nearly all central bankers are from Goldman?

I think there is, based on this, no need to even further elaborate, why CB's have lost independence.



And when it comes to my democratic understanding:

yes, I think that the population should have a vote or what so ever, when it comes to Central banks, which, as it seems, are more mighty than any elected delegate, or moreover, as many "sovereign" countries.


If the people (we, the state) lose control, the control is in the hands of the ones who serve the 0.01%.


In the end I do not need to vote for each technocrat, but there must be ways to control them and to hold them accountable. Right now, we have nothing of that.

So do you feel comfortable with that?


And if printing money is all a central banker has to do (of course, that is what they do for years now), well this job can do anybody......


Regarding Weidman:

what is wrong with orthodoxy views, when one looks at QE1 to QEndless, and how it fails?

And in this case Weidmann did not make an economical point in the first place. He made a point of justice, a point of constitution.

No one should dare to lift himself above constitution - and exactly this is what ECB are doing.

State financing through ECB is forbidden. But exactly this is what they are doing now.
  • #135,014
  • May 15, 2015 7:49am May 15, 2015 7:49am
Quoting infinitus
.... How comes, that nearly all central bankers are from Goldman?...
Quote
If the people (we, the state) lose control, the control is in the hands of the ones who serve the 0.01%.
...beacuse top private institutions in whatever field and like or not usually attract most of the cream of the cream in their areas ...it happens the same in Energy, Space, Garbage Management or simply a top Football club...

You are mixing apples with chairs. I don't know why do you think a Central Bank mandate is creating social justice, distribute wealth and make everybody happy. The only mandate all CB have in common is controlling Inflation period. The FED and a few others also have a dual mandate to promote stability to generate economic growth ..but none have a mandate to make everybody happy and create social justice...

Don't know why do you want to call a plumber to fix an electrical problem ....and later complain that the plumber is corrupt and the electricity is still not working ...i think you should aim those cannons on equality to the ones that have been elected for that job... not to a bunch of technocrats that has nothing to do with that ....

--------------------- ------------------------ --------------------- ------------------------ --------------------- ------------------------ --------------------- ------------------------

NY and key news coming. Any undershoot will brings some fireworks across the board for the Weekly close. In the Euro, we lost the soft 1.137x in the morning killing the quick intraday move and more importantly unlocking the floor for the news play. 1.128x naked for the the opening range and 1.130x key line n the sand for the news play that today comes after the opening ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,015
  • May 15, 2015 7:54am May 15, 2015 7:54am
lmfao @ comparing apples to chairs.

I almost fell out of my chair
  • #135,016
  • May 15, 2015 8:07am May 15, 2015 8:07am
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} ...beacuse top private institutions in whatever field and like or not usually attract most of the cream in that area ...it happens the same in Energy, Space, Garbage Management or simply a top Football club... You are mixing apples with chairs. I don't know why do you think a Central Bank mandate is creating social justice, distribute wealth and make everybody happy. The only mandate all CB have in common is controlling Inflation period. The FED and a few others also have a dual mandate to promote stability to generate economic growth...

Sorry Sisse,

when the CB's sole purpose is to control inflation, so why does the ECB run state financing now?

Although, the mandate of the CB's is not to provide happiness for everyone, why is it that they deliver and deliver and deliver happiness to the upper 0,01%?

Or do you oppose the wealth effect they are creating for the upper 0.01% with their actions? And the negative wealth effect for e.g. all savers and pensioners?

Since the CB's are organs of states, their very first purpose is to serve the people (all the people) and not to only fulfil the needs, will etc. of the upper 0.01%


I am not the one here mixing apples with chairs.


Since you believe, that the Central Bankers are all so well educated, so pretty smart, why is it, that the central banks cause one bubble after the other?

Fighting debt caused crisis with even more debt.......


Time to leave the Keynesian throne and tower.........
  • #135,017
  • May 15, 2015 8:08am May 15, 2015 8:08am
Quoting Pharm0r
lmfao @ comparing apples to chairs. I almost fell out of my chair

and what was the joke?


and what is your opinion?
  • #135,018
  • May 15, 2015 8:11am May 15, 2015 8:11am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and what was the joke? and what is your opinion?
Apples to oranges is usually the saying.....

Opinion was stated.

Quoting Pharm0r
How many banksters/institutions have paid fines or been convicted since 2008? I didn't realize it was even a question on whether or not they are corrupt...
  • #135,019
  • May 15, 2015 8:13am May 15, 2015 8:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Apples to oranges is usually the saying..... Opinion was stated. {quote}

  • #135,020
  • May 15, 2015 8:19am May 15, 2015 8:19am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and again speaking of ethical behaviour: {image} UBS Shocked To Learn Ratting Out Fellow Criminals Doesn't Buy DOJ Immunity read the whole text But the really "ethical" aspect is this: snipset: On Thursday, J.P. Morgan disclosed in a financial filing that any resolution acceptable to DOJ would require that the Firm plead guilty to an antitrust charge. Curiously, it is none other than JPMorgan who courtesy...
Oh damn. If they make 'em quit manipulating how are we going to make any money? Half of chartreading is figuring out when they're up to it.
19 traders viewing now