Disliked{quote} ... If nobody is squeezing EURUSD at these levels, then what is it? A USD weakness story? A USD profit taking situation? Or just some late bulls running the no man land? I don't think FED will kick the can to next year. What's your view?Ignored
- Look my point is that is a very bad mistake to get attached to one side by default. Its one of the most common mistakes you find in traders. They get married to one side and one analysis and struggle a lot to change their mindset when circumstances changes.
- An example of this is some old traditional folks outside of financial world that invest in the typical buy and hold forever in particular stocks (very common in the UK, US) so they get attach to very traditional companies (e.g Tesco in the UK, BAC in the US, etc, etc you get the point), they have very hard time thinking that these big companies can go wrong or its time to sell and they just keep holding forever and never thinking that its impossible they wont come back to their peak times....
- Closer to forex. the euro has the biggest stigma in all pairs. It has such a bad karma coverage in the media, especially since the Debt Crisis, that retail usually fail to see the forest for the trees when euro start rallying or retracing. It's not uncommon to hear people in these boards screaming FCK euro, dead to euro, die, doom, blah blah.
Even some very vocal traders around here, get so blindfolded with "Euro to Parity" that they miss 1 quarter of trading and a +1000 ticks retrace in euro and still are convince they are good traders because they "know the doom scenario in the euro"...etc.
My point is, don't get so stuck in "late bulls running the no man land" approach as the only ones in no man land are the late ones who hasn't seen the 1000s ticks retrace yet and just keep repeating like parrots the long term macro outcome [parity] that, in the case of the euro, even the most sluggish trader know it by now ....
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Lets see how it plays out this week after the Minutes first. For now, 1.132x failed to hold the roll by a handful of ticks leaving 1.128x wide open and a micro range in play until the European opening (1.128x / 1.135x)...
sisse