Cable Update (GBPUSD)

that was quick.....its trying to break daily pp 1.564 now, we could be heading for pre election level

just a minor correction, good inflation report will take it higher . I am bullish.

what was that number before 5588.. or 5522

going up...

just hope that rejection hit on the green 200 is confirm break out from it x marks the spot

1.57 is still on the card, i believe we test 1.57 before the retail report , now if retail come good i will buy it again at 1.56 or lower region with a tp of 1.587. i believe 1.587 will be easily touched . irrespective of retail data.

The drop we just saw on GU from the daily r1 to the main pivot was indeed a strong one, because of the distance between the two pivots, and the amount of time which it took for it to move. Most people would contend that GU is back to a sell mode, but because of this slight recover from the main pivot, I believe the bulls are not done. Had the bull run been done, then the price would of remained at the main pivot forming a pattern which looks like the formations posted below.


The pattern appears like a high heel shoe in which the heel is confirmed as being created on the retrace back up. On GBP/USD we have seen a retrace, but GBP/USD bulls will need the price to close above 1.5685 on the 5m in order to give the bulls back total control and try to form a cup and handle formation.

i think it could be a confirming breakout run to the day 200 ema 5500 see if the last low on 5 min holds then look to 15 and 30, and 1 hour for supports

At this moment your target could be correct. You now can see we are retesting the heel. What I would do here is if GU DOESN'T create a new low under the heel 1.56349 and it engulfs any candle on the 5m chart to the upside, then I would take a small buy. Until then the bears are in control.

https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.inf...tary-popup.png
UK: BoE steady as she goes
13/05/15 11:16 Dominic Bryant - Market Economics

1. The BoE’s inflation profile was little changed over the 2-3 year horizon.
2. This suggests the Bank is reasonably happy with market pricing at present.
3. Wage growth has been weaker than expected, but so has productvity.
4. GDP growth has been revised down, but so has the supply side of the economy.
5. Spare capacity is seen at around 0.5% of GDP.

Having prompted the market to bring forward rate hike expectations with the line in the April minutes that expectations for Bank rate were “exceptionally flat”, the BoE’s May Inflation Report looks to be a case of “steady as she goes”. The inflation profile has been revised up in H2 2015, reflecting oil prices, base effects from which also pushes down inflation a little in H2 2016. However, over the policy relevant 2-3 year horizon, inflation is on target or marginally above it, much as it was in the February IR. The implication is that currently the Bank is broadly happy with what is priced in.

While the inflation profile and message on policy is broadly as we expected, growth has been revised down more than we thought might be the case; growth has been trimmed by around 0.3pp across the forecast horizon. This looks to be a judgement about supply rather than demand, with the forecasts for labour participation and productivity being revised down. This means that despite a softer growth profile, spare capacity, currently estimated at around 0.5% by the Bank, will continue to diminish and, therefore, put upward pressure on wages and inflation.

The wage growth forecast has been revised down in 2015, such that the q4/q4 pace is now expected to be 2.5% against 3.5% in the previous forecast. It is still expected to reach 4.0% in 2016 and 2017. Lower-than-expected productivity growth means that unit labour costs growth in 2015 has only been revised down by 0.5pp in 2015, but has been revised up in 2016 to 3.0% from 2.75% previously.

Overall, the Inflation Report looks like a holding operation. The Bank seems in no hurry to raise rates this year while next year is sufficiently far away that it does not feel the need to micro manage expectations at this point (especially as it has already shifted the market recently).

Our forecast remains that the first rate hike comes in Q1 2016. The pace of tightening will be gradual, albeit a little more pronounced than priced in at present. Some of the key things to watch will be wage growth, fiscal policy and the exchange rate.

You can see that we have yet to create a new low, and a green candle has yet to engulf any of the prior red candles. At this time GU is still a big time scalp sell.

Might bounce from 1.5595 area......

the way it looks one could stay in untill 10/20 emas cross but this will happen after it finds support, so one would lose any profits, just play s/r trades or start building longs small lots hedged but if mm has to be a factor, regards .5613 could be a watch area as on all tc charts it meets an ema , the 200 on the 15 mim and 100 on the 30 min and the 50 on the 1 hour,, so ???

The current GBPUSD profit taking move triggered by BOE's QIF could get extended towards 1.5560-50 strong support, should the pair fail to hold 1.5620...

Oh no, the warm weather in April (almost) caused a drop in retail sales!

I keep short on GBP USD, SL 15730 on small profit

Short !! Why?

been playing the same s/r watch next chart for break or confirm shout under the tl

o what a day ,, next trade ??

The price I gave was hit right on the button. Right before the news, the price failed to close under the last low, and it turned out to be the low of this mini spike back up. Let's see what happens now.