Cable Update (GBPUSD)

scheme worked well EUR USD and gbp usd pushing to the level of US trade Friday

Agree with you. Soon we'll see 1.50.

no trade during bank holiday..agree??

Hello Al, what is the name of this Indicator and where can i download it? I am one of your follower on your previous thread ETMA. I'll really appreciate if you can tell me how to get the indicator. I still trade the ETMA.

So many important news as today.. And surely, the trend already reversed..
The question is..
Will it directly go down.. or it will make a little correction , then go down..
I think, news can answer it..

Expecting it to drop to test 1.5060-50 support area immediately after the release of Construction PMI data.

Good Call! Thanks!

Decrease on Cons PMI.. Go go bear..

have you ever seen a formation like that? it's fucking earthquake.

weak PMI and price is going up...how come

Ongoing intraday sentiment can be stronger than news.

I'd like to explain it more, but this is the kind of basics you'd find online just by googling "forex news trading". They'll probably do a more concise job explaining it. Eh, what the heck-I'll try to explain the best I can.

It's true that fundamentals (economic data & state of economy) run the show in the long run. Over time, people can't simple ignore the cold hard statistics coming through. But the problem with this is that it's macroeconomics. Yes, the economy (and by association, general value of a currency) is predictable over time, but in the short period, we can't say for certain. It's one of the reasons why Keynesian economics was founded to explain why the economy didn't work so nice and tidy in the "short run" (a simplification, but you get the idea).

Sometimes, data might be leaked. In this case, prices tend to be "priced in" (basically, the current currency pair rates have already accounted for the news, and so bringing the news out publicly won't change things.)

At other times, the current bullish/bearish sentiment might just be stronger. for example, a slightly positive "red flag" news in the euro during late 2014 didn't bring the euro up. Why? Because sentiment for the euro was falling fast and with the potential (now confirmed) massive quantitative easing, people just didn't care about the good news and shorted the euro down.

And then there's cases where bank policy might be so overtly obvious that trader and the market just ignore them. For instance, when the U.K. tried intervening by buying up the pound sterling and hiking its interest rates in a desperate attempt to keep the value of the pound sterling up (it was ridiculously overvalued by the British attempt to keep the pound in line with the deutsche mark), normally these bank policies would cause a rise in the value of the pound. However, because the pound sterling was so overvalued, everyone knew this was just a sad attempt by the government to artificially keep the prices up, completely disregarding the real value of the pound sterling at the time. Traders kept selling the pound despite "good" news, and that caused the 1992 Black Wednesday.

Also, it might take a while for the price to react to the news. It doesn't have to happen instantly.

In this case, you're better off putting major bets until the U.K. general election goes through this week. Uncertain political events that could determine the future of a country's economic policy tend to make markets jittery. Honest to god, with the given chart data I see and fundamentals in play, I could see the intraday hours going either way. I'll need a more stronger breakthrough certain key support/resistances to be certain.

Keep in mind that the pound sterling is currently one of the strongest (arguably the strongest) rival of the USD right now, so if you had to sell another country's currency in favor of the USD, you generally could find better options, like the euro. Because the U.K. is relatively more sound than other countries, there's less chance of the sterling holders suddenly jumping ship to the US dollar haven.

Seems like the sentiment is down nevertheless, I thought with a bad data like this it would break the support and move lower. Thanks, I will will research it on google. Let's hope bears will catch up

I re-edited my comment and wrote an explanation. Hopefully, it'll help. If not, I guess you could try google.

we are going up

Thank You, for the kind explanation :-)

eur/gbp short term trend changed to sell unless 0.7355 is broken

Price is still stuck in a glut......not trading the cable right now. God, this week's is starting off slowly. Then again, any week with the US Non farm payroll data tends to have unconventional movements.

Friday will probably determine this week's profits and the upcoming weekly strategy for me. Until then, I guess it's scalping time. It'll be hard to break more than a few resistances with the way thing s are.

Speaking of NFP, anyone here got any predictions for the data? Higher than expected? Lower? Same as expectations?

Agreed that the GBPUSD prices are stuck in the channel. A sustained break of 1.5165-70 could fuel the pair towards 1.5270 & 1.5330 while a downside break of 1.5070 could drift the pair towards testing 1.4980

We are guessing what plotted, the big boys so now guesswork and projection