Experience as a trader | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Benchmark for Trader Skills & Experience 2 replies

Any experience with CoesFX? 16 replies

Experience, by Joe Ross 16 replies

A little experience with TradeStation!!! 32 replies

Anybody have the same experience 6 replies

Experience as a trader

  • #41
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:22am Mar 15, 2015 1:22am
Perhaps the reason people are failing in trading is not because they have no discipline. It is simply they do not possess any edge. Once you have found the edge, it takes little discipline to follow it as you are winning more than losing. Many of the FF gurus are talking about the psychological stuff the traders need to cultivate in order to succeed. They simply do not know what they are talking about. What I said may sound harsh,but it is the truth. And knowing the truth will set you free, and put you in the journey to rediscover and learn how to trade. To be successful in this business, find a real and true edge. After which, trading is simply enter and exit. That's all ever to it.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #42
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:43am Mar 15, 2015 2:43am
Quoting hunting pips
Perhaps the reason people are failing in trading is not because they have no discipline. It is simply they do not possess any edge. Once you have found the edge, it takes little discipline to follow it as you are winning more than losing. Many of the FF gurus are talking about the psychological stuff the traders need to cultivate in order to succeed. They simply do not know what they are talking about. What I said may sound harsh,but it is the truth. And knowing the truth will set you free, and put you in the journey to rediscover and...
surely psychology affects discretionary trader a great deal. were you speaking solely for automated trading?
  • #43
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:51am Mar 15, 2015 2:51am
Quoting hunting pips
Perhaps the reason people are failing in trading is not because they have no discipline. It is simply they do not possess any edge. Once you have found the edge, it takes little discipline to follow it as you are winning more than losing. Many of the FF gurus are talking about the psychological stuff the traders need to cultivate in order to succeed. They simply do not know what they are talking about. What I said may sound harsh,but it is the truth. And knowing the truth will set you free, and put you in the journey to rediscover and...
Finding an edge is definitely vital but without discipline you're still screwed. The two need to go together. You can't just gamble and max out on 888:1 leverage with your edge every time and expect to make money. Discipline and patience are a must. But with a true edge, the money is going to definitely come in... it's just a question of whether or not the trader will hold onto the profits
  • #44
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:53am Mar 15, 2015 2:53am
Quoting hunting pips
Perhaps the reason people are failing in trading is not because they have no discipline. It is simply they do not possess any edge. Once you have found the edge, it takes little discipline to follow it as you are winning more than losing. Many of the FF gurus are talking about the psychological stuff the traders need to cultivate in order to succeed. They simply do not know what they are talking about. What I said may sound harsh,but it is the truth. And knowing the truth will set you free, and put you in the journey to...
So true. The internet had been misleading everyone for a long time.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #45
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:44am Mar 15, 2015 6:44am
Quoting kinky
{quote} surely psychology affects discretionary trader a great deal. were you speaking solely for automated trading?

Regardless. Let's say u use a coin toss system. When it goes head, you buy. When it goes tail, you sell. Everytime. No positive psychology is going to help you to win. The system has no edge.

By engaging positive psychology, possibly using meditation, is just going to hoodwink you to think it is all ok. When in fact, it is not. The fact that you are on the screen every day is evident that you have some discipline. But without an edge, you are just wasting your years away.

Every new trader should really spend time finding the edge instead of psychology. When you have an edge, u simply follow the rules and it is not really that hard to do it. But when you don't consistently implement the rules, and trying to second-guess your system, then you simply are not suitable to trade. Even if you find an edge, it is never 100%. There is still possibility that it will not be a positive outcome. Price can only go up or down, from a reference point. Whoever bets 100% or uses unreasonable MM is definitely going to suffer, no matter the system he uses. This one is clear.


The only psychology barrier is simply trust - trust or having faith in your system, even when the initial trades may not go as you have hoped. And many are not suitable to trade. And sadly so. This fact also lies the edge, as many will be sitting ducks.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #46
  • Edited 9:28am Mar 15, 2015 8:22am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting hunting pips
{quote} Regardless. Let's say u use a coin toss system. When it goes head, you buy. When it goes tail, you sell. Everytime. No positive psychology is going to help you to win. The system has no edge. By engaging positive psychology, possibly using meditation, is just going to hoodwink you to think it is all ok. When in fact, it is not. The fact that you are on the screen every day is evident that you have some discipline. But without an edge, you are just wasting your years away. Every new trader should really spend time finding the...
The coin toss system you described is an example of automated trading. the system is governed by hard rules. Discretionary trading is different.
In discretionary trading, one would look for signs, be it fundamental such as differential rate policy between us and eu, or technical such as a triple top + retest of neck line. Then by aggregating all these signs/data, he makes a decision to buy, sell or sideline.

I personally don't do meditation, but i think it will help those who actually benefits from it. for example, giving him a clearer mind for him to look out analyse these signs.

you also mentioned "second-guess" and not being consistent with the hard rules. why? because he has been flipping head 7 times.. perhaps its time to sell? because he "doubt", "hope" and has no "faith". all these are part of psychology of market participants. doubting the trend, Hoping for a reversal, has no faith that the price can still fall... etc.

nevertheless, i agree with you that robust MM is a must. having a robust MM is an edge in itself over those who doesn't have a robust MM.

many people are not suitable to trade because their preconceived mentality of the market is deeply rooted. e.g. what goes up must come down, if i sell the 3 standard deviation of the bollinger band.. the price MUST definitely return to mean, or SNB must hold the 1.2 floor or CHF will appreciate too much and hurt the exporters etc. they think that the market should do this and do that.

ironically, its the mindset (psychology) is one of the reasons that is preventing them from being successful in trading
  • #47
  • Edited 11:33am Mar 15, 2015 11:00am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting hunting pips
{quote} You are starting to see the light, just like I did. Avoid the Trading Systems at all cost. Imagine if you have found the Golden Goose. Will you share it? Heaven no! Many are naive to think that some gurus are willing to share their secrets with you at $199 per month. When you fail, they said you didn't follow the system or simply the market has changed! What the heaven! I have yet to seen any FF gurus showing any live statement, not one! Come on, they don't even have one proper month of profit t show? And they are having...
now, if you started to see the light i hope you'll start see the darkness.

i agree with what you say about edge and everything.
but what you said about 50/50 coin flips is not true.
and i'm not talking about trend-following systems or r/r systems.
have you heard about theory of runs? it's possible to get, from time to time, 10 heads in a row (it's a mathematical expectation for a 50% system).
if you anti-martingale your way through this, you'll be able to change your average payoff.
play with a monte-carlo simulator and you'll see what i'm talking about.

i guess palabara had a different reason to open this thread. he wanted to talk experience and not who we are individually (like this is my advice to newcomers). let's talk experience then!
good luck!

p.s. math is tricky. it gives one a 50% expectation on a coinflip, but it also gives the expectation of 10 heads in a row. whenever you discount one possibility from the list, you're turning yourself into some sort of fundamentalist (like the efficient market theorists).

p.p.s. this is a great text written by gladwell about niederhoffer and nassim taleb: http://gladwell.com/blowing-up/ (i still like niederhoffer, but he's been gone for a long time)

Inserted Video
  • #48
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:55pm Mar 15, 2015 4:55pm
I'll toss in my 2 cents on the subject at hand.. Edge is important or as I call it a strategy. Whatever anyone wishes to call it, always amount to the same thing which is an idea of when to get in and when to get out of the market.

A lot of very smart responses were posted such as the difference between trading EA or otherwise mechanically and otherwise discretionary. As I've mentioned before, I claim to be no guru nor do I have anything to prove. I am 14 year Veteran in this industry and notice. I say industry and not "trading" because I believe I've moved beyond just "trading" At the same time, I am a slow horse it took me a lot of errors and trials and errors and pile up a truck load of errors to understand a lot of concepts and stop repeating mistakes, but does it make me worst off now? Does it make me less successful now? I've finished the race, I might have not come in 1st or 2nd or 10th.. But I've ran it, and I've finished it. I didn't drop out no matter the hardship or obstacle in the way.

My experiences have taught me a lot, I'm more aware, I'm more experienced. I can see danger up ahead and avoid it before it coming close to it. For example, I am not saying I did see the "CHF" peg removal coming I did not nor do I claim to, but what I did see from my experience was that it was "unsustainable" that buying into it or taking a position was nothing wise to do, because the outcome would have never landed favorably. I didn't know it would have ended like this but enough experience to know stay away and let it play out.

Further more.. I knew brokers don't last did I know.. FXCM would fall. No I did not, what I did know is that I've seen in my years bigger brokers then FXCM bite the dust and I knew that no matter the regulation no matter the ego or confidence or size that there is NO GUARANTEES! So what do I do.. Well for starters.. I don't trade 1 account.. I have 9.. Then I diversify because if any one account ever goes Ploop it won't destroy it won't cripple. Will it suck? Absolutely, but I only keep enough money to trade. In my mind that money can disappear any moment and I'm prepared for it. So IF it does happen, Its not a surprise.

This experiences, have made my skin so thick, figurative bullets cannot hurt me lol. Real one can though very painfully! So I once again say that, experience is very valuable because an "edge" a strategy a plan is good, but experience brings lots of value. This thread is to share experience.. Everyone brings something to the table, but if you know what to look for, and how to look for it.. You can see a lot of stories have a very common theme and gives more knowledge and understanding. Like the interview with the Ex-Goldman Sachs Anton Kreil. I value his experience, because its his.. His path.. His decisions.. His views. I value every-once experience.

As I've stated in another thread, I've read books early on and you find your "inspiration" through others experience. Mine was Michael Marcus.. The reason he was my inspiration, because it took him 10 years to become successful and he was a commodities trader, and it was way earlier time period. He did it, he broke through the ice, but it wasn't without pain or hardship He said and I quote "that one time as he was coming back on the train he was contemplating suicide." As I've stated that before its an extreme though, but it displays the level of emotional drain that you experience when you've hit rock bottom. I've hit rock bottom so many times, I've felt stupid and angry for even being a trader, for choosing this and sticking with it, and a lot of hate and self resentment. This are emotions that we feel that weigh us down like anchors.

He became successful, so successful he bought his own private jet plane.. houses in every country.. Like Lotto stupid rich.. When he entered Forex and lost 10 million overnight That's when he was brought down back to earth.. Just how fragile the house of cards he built really was, awake up call another experience he experienced.

My experience my journey has thought me that yes money in every sense is worthless.. Paper that can be printed and be worthless tomorrow, but today it still has value and to approach it smart, exchange it insure it, and protect yourself more then anything else protect yourself. People look at gold, and are like what its value.. my view on gold its insurance.. Because no matter what.. Gold will ALWAYS have value, 1000 years from now it will still be valued in society. Regardless of how much fiat currency its worth. My philosophy can never have enough gold or silver this 2 metals have kept their value for millenniums.

So that's my 2 cents.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #49
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:05pm Mar 15, 2015 6:05pm
From a poker perspective coinflips are profitable .. you just need to win more $£ when you win than you pay out when you lose.. you don't need to win ten in a row, although that would be very nice.
  • #50
  • Mar 15, 2015 9:53pm Mar 15, 2015 9:53pm
Quoting drainingdown
From a poker perspective coinflips are profitable .. you just need to win more $ when you win than you pay out when you lose.. you don't need to win ten in a row, although that would be very nice.
lol
  • #51
  • Edited Mar 16, 2015 12:01am Mar 15, 2015 11:36pm | Edited Mar 16, 2015 12:01am
Quoting heph
{quote} have you heard about theory of runs? it's possible to get, from time to time, 10 heads in a row (it's a mathematical expectation for a 50% system).
This is assuming the market would be a perfectly efficient coin, which it is not.

"We can see from the above that, if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem.
This can also be seen without knowing that 20 heads have occurred for certain (without applying of Bayes' theorem). Consider the following two probabilities, assuming a fair coin:

  1. probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail = 0.520 0.5 = 0.521
  2. probability of 20 heads, then 1 head = 0.520 0.5 = 0.521

The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to flip 21 heads as it is to flip 20 heads and then 1 tail when flipping a fair coin 21 times."

The reason this holds true to a truly efficient system like a coin toss is because of frequency stability.

Inserted Video



The market is not a truly efficient system and it does favor patterns unlike something like a true coin flip. If there market were truly efficient, all of the sequences the price could possible make no matter what length they are will happen the exact same amount of times with the same amount of probability.

This is not the case as if you measure any forms of sequences with price over years of data you will notice that in different market conditions different sequences will occur more often. This is why some strategies work in trending markets & some work in trending, etc. And even in the most balanced or efficient times of the market, certain sequences are still favored.

"Gambler's fallacy does not apply when the probability of different events is not independent, the probability of future events can change based on the outcome of past events (see statistical permutation). Formally, the system is said to have memory. An easy example of this is cards drawn without replacement. For example, if an ace is drawn from a deck and not reinserted, the next draw is less likely to be an ace and more likely to be of another rank. The odds for drawing another ace, assuming that it was the first card drawn and that there are no jokers, have decreased from 4⁄52 (7.69%) to 3⁄51 (5.88%), while the odds for each other rank have increased from 4⁄52 (7.69%) to 4⁄51 (7.84%). This type of effect is what allows card counting systems to work (for example in the game of blackjack).

The reversed gambler's fallacy may appear to apply in the story of Joseph Jagger, who hired clerks to record the results of roulette wheels in Monte Carlo. He discovered that one wheel favored nine particular numbers, and was able to win large sums of money by betting on them until the casino started rebalancing the roulette wheels daily. In this situation, the observation of the wheel's behavior provided information about the physical properties of the wheel rather than its "probability" in some abstract sense, a concept which is the basis of both the gambler's fallacy and its reversal. Even a biased wheel's past results will not affect future results, but the results can provide information about what sort of results the wheel tends to produce. However, if it is known for certain that the wheel is completely fair, then past results provide no information about future ones. (Picture the market as a wheel, it is not completely balanced. This is a fact, so this does not hold true)

the outcome of future events can be affected if external factors are allowed to change the probability of the events (e.g., changes in the rules of a game affecting a sports team's performance levels)."

The rules of the game known as forex change every day via news release, central Bank policy, geopolitical risk, etc.

sis.
  • #52
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:33am Mar 16, 2015 3:33am
Quoting heph
{quote} now, if you started to see the light i hope you'll start see the darkness. i agree with what you say about edge and everything. but what you said about 50/50 coin flips is not true. and i'm not talking about trend-following systems or r/r systems. have you heard about theory of runs? it's possible to get, from time to time, 10 heads in a row (it's a mathematical expectation for a 50% system). if you anti-martingale your way through this, you'll be able to change your average payoff. play with a monte-carlo simulator and you'll see what i'm...
It is ok to have different view points. Appreciate this article. In fact, it is also incorporated into my trading philosophy, esp after the SNB debacle. I put it to you that our experience do not matter at all. At the end, the market will decide to do anything - often out of the ordinary, and there is unfortunately nothing we can do about it.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #53
  • Mar 17, 2015 10:32am Mar 17, 2015 10:32am
this is a good thread and hope to be continued
  • #54
  • Mar 17, 2015 12:20pm Mar 17, 2015 12:20pm
So I want want to share something.. Yesterday my son had surgery his tonsils and adenoids were removed because it was causing him breathing problems. The surgeon asked for us to keep him overnight in the hospital so they can make sure everything is fine etc.. So we figured why not, you know this is a children's hospital, the keyword "children's" We had no prior experience with this hospital, so surgery went fine we knew the doctor and his good and after the Anestassia my son was bouncing again. Only the problems started with the hospital, the issues list is VERY long and I'm not going to go on a rant about the hospital lets summarize it, it was really bad. BECAUSE of this experience, I know not to ever ever step foot in that hospital again, because I've experienced this crap of a hospital, I now LEARNED from that experience. So for whoever else that thinks life or markets or anything else is a series of random events then by all means living in a puzzle box is a choice. My emphasis goes on that we learn experience from every aspect of our lives, so by knowing what I didn't know prior. Based on my experience when people will ask me well what did you think of that hospital. I'll say that I rather die on the street then be dragged in there. So that person will take my experience into account, and say no kidding that bad huh? I'd say dieing is better then being treated there lol you get the picture.. Markets can be no different they are no puzzle box's this is not a series of random events by listening and learning from experience helps.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #55
  • Mar 17, 2015 12:31pm Mar 17, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting palabara
So I want want to share something.. Yesterday my son had surgery his tonsils and adenoids were removed because it was causing him breathing problems. The surgeon asked for us to keep him overnight in the hospital so they can make sure everything is fine etc.. So we figured why not, you know this is a children's hospital, the keyword "children's" We had no prior experience with this hospital, so surgery went fine we knew the doctor and his good and after the Anestassia my son was bouncing again. Only the problems started with the hospital, the issues...
would be good to differentiate the problem of the hospital between random or systemic error too.
  • #56
  • Edited 12:59pm Mar 17, 2015 12:48pm | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting kinky
{quote} would be good to differentiate the problem of the hospital between random or systemic error too.
lol in all honesty.. If were to get into that type of details they've hit every nail on the head from random errors to systemic errors to human errors to human I just don't give a s*** this is a paycheck.

To be honest this experience has shed light that.. once again even when it comes to health care to do proper due diligence. Even as something as basic as reading peoples reviews and experiences.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #57
  • Mar 25, 2015 11:44pm Mar 25, 2015 11:44pm
I brought up a point tonight about failure to launch where your net gain has to over come the net loss otherwise if they are the same rate their is no distance being moved.. At chemistry class the other day.. there was an interesting realization that everything in the universe basically relates to work.. so what does that mean? in the most basic form possible movement.. That work is basically motion that without motion there is no work.

So to explore that.. when people in the science fields explore a topic they measure things temperatures, distances, mass, density anything and everything in order to find relations to find the "work" that is being done. To convert this to the financial field. We know by basic definition that work is done by price movement but the distinction needs to be related to measurable distances over time and then converted into a point where the net gain and net loss do not match and one surpass the other.. Preferably the gain surpass the loss.

Only then can the work that a traders requires in order to be successful can be accomplished. So proper measurements need to be taken in order to find the relations between the net gain and net loss and how to properly adjust.. There is an interesting mathematical point. I'll try to explain it and then draw it later..

So we have 2 price points.. Start Price and Ending Price..

Starting Price is entry level.. Where you open a position.. Ending Price is end goal where the price in your analysis is expected to be. Now price does not move in a linear way.. It doesn't go straight from entry to desired/expected level. It moves in 2 paths.. Up/down every so often it reaches a point and does a pull back to arrive at new price.. After a series of movements the price will either reach that point or will deviate into the opposite direction. Now this is where probability come into place.. and not the coin tossing once. What are the probability that the price in a series of events would have reached the final goal?

Once configuring the steps and probability.. there is a plan and direction where it all comes down to a set of numbers not emotions or psychology but a series of quantitative events. Now some people would argue the fundamentals.. In my eyes.. Fundamentals are "catalysts" they lower the energy activation required proceeding the series of events occurring at faster pace.

When bankers hire people they don't do it based on good looks, they do it based on applying knowledge things you know not supposedly related to trading, but things you can use in order to think outside of the box and relate them to trading. To be a trader need to think like a surgeon or a rocket scientist dealing with a series of problems that need correcting or solving.

Additional abbreviation: to give an idea of how to measure can be used in time vs distance.. So candles whatever time frame is choose so the open close of the candle and the time it took to arrive at desired goal.. now a control needs to be established so that things can be compared towards it.. so using historical data a starting point that can be replicated over and over and then a chosen ending point and then measurements of time vs distance taken (its simple but very productive data collection)
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #58
  • Mar 27, 2015 1:01pm Mar 27, 2015 1:01pm
Another week more experience observed. I hope everyone had a productive week Fridays are usually very rough and this is the last Friday of the month. Was a bit of rumors today and some volatility. I closed my CAD/JPY Position, I had it on for a week its been in a very compact range and I've squeezed 90 pips out of it I wanted more and probably could have gotten it, but the markets are making me nervous there is to much sideways and undisclosed directions - didn't want to push my chances and end up in a mean regression and stuck for another week. There is one thing that applies to forex and doesn't apply so well to other markets and its mean regression. defines as: "a measure of the relation between the mean value of one variable (e.g., output) and corresponding values of other variables (e.g., time and cost)." What that means is that the price eventually comes back to the mean BUT in a proloned period of time the mean shifts so it wouldn't be the original place the longer regression does not occur so after 2 weeks it hasn't regressed that previous mean is no longer the mean but eventually regression does occur its only knowing when it starts to happen where is the mean located at. This concepts occurs in Forex because of the volatility and 2 side directions. Higher Time Frame also means Higher Mean regression as averages are calculated over a longer period of time.. Lower time frames consistent on a lower basis but this is just another tool to work with when trading.

http://www.alphaarchitect.com/blog/2.../#.VRWbTy4YGjY
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #59
  • Apr 18, 2015 6:13pm Apr 18, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting palabara
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeRD...=5&spfreload=1 This is something very interesting. I'd recommend watching all the parts and listening carefully. His really honest about the thing he says, like it is.
Interesting video, thanks.

This trader also appears on the Million Dollar Traders videos, another extremely interesting documentary. Here is part 1:
Inserted Video
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
  • #60
  • Apr 18, 2015 8:56pm Apr 18, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} Interesting video, thanks. This trader also appears on the Million Dollar Traders videos, another extremely interesting documentary. Here is part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk
I never liked the idea of working for someone else.. putting pressure on you ughh.. I did that when I started in my pursuit of trading and did not like that at all.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
0 traders viewing now