Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Same plan, same crap but less than -130 now plus a few shorts from a bit higher (some closed in profit on daily close). TP unmoved from 1.45, SL 1.5015. Erased from the chart the first real bullish signs seen for weeks other than news spikes & moves and profit taking. If it manages to withhold London early bashing tomorrow and keep below 1.4975 again, then 1.45 would be achieved soon. If sl is taken (highly unlikely!) then wait for exhaustion.

Many economies outside the US have less regulation and taxes in key areas, and are better performers on that basis. Take Britain's proximity to the Single Market Eurozone, which often has some performing stock indicies and IPO activity relative to the US.

Central banks raise rates to fight growth. So as the US grows, freer jurisdictions like New Zealand will likely grow faster. And then, with this principle, you simply listen to how the central bankers are weighing it in their speeches etc.

This view of raising rates to fight "inflation" is because establishment economists improperly view price inflation as a function of an "overheating" economy or "excess "consumer" demand". The economy grows, and wages go up, so how do you tackle inflation? You take an axe to the former. Is the thinking. Be it wages, or other signals. You can take a bump in the oil price or long-term interest rates as reflecting expectations for the demand for oil [the industrial sector as the demand for oil]. Of course I'm dropping the context of $/oil being a ratio for now. But focus on this narrative. This is the myopic zone bank analysts and most chambers and commerce' and policians, financial journalists, etc etc, live in.

Years ago the ECB was raising from 1% to 1.5%, given their mandate, then a "hawk" comes in and begins cutting during crisis.
You could argue the BoE was hawkish, now dovish, but that the BoE board contains latent long-run hawkishness. And they're near the outer end of their dovishness.

You could argue AUD rate cuts were almost solely aimed at changing market expectations to bring down the A$ from US$1.10 to $0.75. So what if Australia holds in a few hours? Does the Pound try 1.50 again intermarket? Even tea leaves are a change in policy that could see 0.78 in AUDUSD. Implications for GBPUSD. Of course, could be 0.74 for all I care later on.

You could argue with EURUSD, that a large premium of the decline from 1.18 to 1.08 is due to a new far left government in Greece. And folks like Goldman Sachs are expecting modest gains in $/oil. Which is probable in my view.

So I'm not sure it is so deterministic. For all we know, GBPUSD could surge to 1.57 by July. If it falls to say 1.43, well, 1.50 bounce probs.

I think gbp is up for today

Last leg up to crush if next, trying hard bull . Analysis not changed from previous in this daily symmetrical triangle plays . Now daily level 4867 is the level to watch if broken down or not> to ready for breakout down , levels 4836 & 4792 +_ 10 or flight to & over 4890 to 50++ , 51++ towards top before next decision. Me bear in this pair & so already short activated new 4950 + at 4970 ( too early though but ok test) to see effects though.
Take care ,
fontu

U J pull back so no macro data from U K

Do you think about British PMI(with negativ result)?

if broke support next

Expect some support soon

Considering the extreme low price of E/G for the last month, I am thinking of a negative PMI. But UK are good at faking stuff so I am a bit reserved and do not say a 'very' negative PMI.

morning yes true,,

I don't understand why. If EG down don't means GBP bull against EUR? Then how can GBP up if his PMI is bad?

UK services rely heavily on EZ area, so if Euro is falling compared to GBP then I expect less business will be sent to UK. PMI came out higher though price is still falling, maybe will be reflected on next month.

gbp/usd is considered less liquid currency compared to euro, if this is how it reacts to positive news .............

close short

A move like that indicates BoE playing games. Aim is to devalue sterling and get inflation back on track. Also got continued usd strength despite nfp worse than expected.

Services PMI 58.9 and previous was 56.7 and GBP dropped like stone????Again we assume MM

nice pull back and retest up

My next targets prior to 1.4526.

GREAT MOVE - u see u drop it lower lol take out more stops and then as your lower in price u wait an hour and 30 mins for WS to start early with their algos and ka boom up u go with more profit nothing to do with MM just pure market making economics

Think about it how many times have we all said well if i just done the opposite to what i thought then boy would i have made some nice pips.. think about it as that is pure market manipulation just like this morning .. awesome players