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  • #976,861
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:34am Apr 3, 2015 6:34am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Thank you for the encouragement. not too sure about myself but this is how i picture it, i still have a lot to learn though so please point out if i draw it wrong.....@@ ATM i'm not on Bear or Bulls but i think today NFP is gonna decide the direction of the next move. {image} {image}
That is it!
Now just a couple of things, 1- You can apply Fib expansion tool (not Fib tool) to ABC triangles to calculate .618 minor extensions, because sometimes that's all price is going to go to and to be honest move at 1.13 is possible but not as high probability as 1.1080.
2- If you apply same procedure to H1 chart you will see that move below 1.0785 will look at least suspicious.
Like you said, the R:R is at completion points and stops against invalidation points, sometimes you get a few Wash and Rinses but that is not the norm.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #976,862
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:44am Apr 3, 2015 6:44am
Quoting egkid
i took a nap , seems pa still in same 30 pip zone and kick me out @BE of my previous trade
PA sitting in silly zone to take a trade before the news seems big trade already reserved last couple of days
  • #976,863
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:47am Apr 3, 2015 6:47am
Hi Sissie ,of course out of range lower tfs ? we gotta see a build up ,you'd have show me an example of a wick tweezer thats profit taking ,


Quoting sisse
{quote} In my view that looks like a classical profit taking formation rather than a reversal pullback signal. In any case, 1.20xx is locked and out of range for now but the other area is pretty much in play with a break 1.098x. sisse
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,864
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:47am Apr 3, 2015 6:47am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} That is it! Now just a couple of things, 1- You can apply Fib expansion tool (not Fib tool) to ABC triangles to calculate .618 minor extensions, because sometimes that's all price is going to go to and to be honest move at 1.13 is possible but not as high probability as 1.1080. 2- If you apply same procedure to H1 chart you will see that move below 1.0785 will look at least suspicious. Like you said, the R:R is at completion points and stops against invalidation points, sometimes you get a few Wash and Rinses but that is not the norm.
Hi Pedro, Ive never been confident drawing gartley triangles. Is there a good indi available that you know of and would trust?
  • #976,865
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:48am Apr 3, 2015 6:48am
im waiting for breakout..


u are stupid if said Euro will shoot...euro will down...all rubbish!!

sit down ...and wait for data...

  • #976,866
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:49am Apr 3, 2015 6:49am
Quoting egkid
{quote} PA sitting in silly zone to take a trade before the news seems big trade already reserved last couple of days
b ready 1090
  • #976,867
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:50am Apr 3, 2015 6:50am
nice
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,868
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:51am Apr 3, 2015 6:51am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} That is it! Now just a couple of things, 1- You can apply Fib expansion tool (not Fib tool) to ABC triangles to calculate .618 minor extensions, because sometimes that's all price is going to go to and to be honest move at 1.13 is possible but not as high probability as 1.1080. 2- If you apply same procedure to H1 chart you will see that move below 1.0785 will look at least suspicious. Like you said, the R:R is at completion points and stops against invalidation points, sometimes you get a few Wash and Rinses but that is not the norm.
Oh i see it now!! The 61.8% gonna be best cause people will tp there and only a breach of that area could lead to 1.13 thank you very much for the advice
  • #976,869
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:52am Apr 3, 2015 6:52am
what a move. 30 pip out of nowhere
  • #976,870
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:53am Apr 3, 2015 6:53am
ten seconds after i closed my long
  • #976,871
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:54am Apr 3, 2015 6:54am
A load of dollar longs just closed there
Gone to a better place
  • #976,872
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:56am Apr 3, 2015 6:56am
Big funds are closing some of their shorts now.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #976,873
  • Edited 7:16am Apr 3, 2015 6:56am | Edited 7:16am
and triggered my pending short 1.093

edit: placed stop at 1.0956
edit: too chicken, closed position for 23 pips
  • #976,874
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:57am Apr 3, 2015 6:57am
The fun begins at 8:29:30 when Virtu headfakes all the algos into igniting momentum to see where the stops are ahead of NFP
0 podanych dalej 2 ulubione

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  • #976,875
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:57am Apr 3, 2015 6:57am
...and here we go again for a another NFP but this time in the weirdest of times. Euro in a very nasty area for the news on top of a very tricky intraday play given the holidays and low liquidity. Only the knee jerk reaction in play as US markets close a few minutes after the release.

On the fundamental side:

  1. Expecting slightly worst numbers for today and in the best case scenario still a lot lower than the previous amazing report (tracking closely also the revision).
  2. In general, US numbers has slow down in all major sectors in the last few weeks and major GDP forecast has been cut from major banks and analyst so expecting NFP to show this slowdown too.
  3. Employment is in a very strong and consistent trend up for the last 4 years so even a bad number wont trigger any major concerns in the US economy. However, what is in play is the hikes implications (like usual in the last 2 months).
  4. Since the FOMC markets reacted as if the June hikes were out of the equation and most of players are aligning for September Hikes. NFP will serve to confirm this outlook.

    1. Any inline reading between 220k to 260k will confirm expectations. of September hikes.
    2. Only a massive undershoot (below 200k) will send dollar to the floor and open the window for the dovish talking heads for first hikes next year (Q1)

On the technical side:

  1. 1.098x / 1.066x is the wide range in play since the FOMC. We are pretty much still in neutral zone but a break 1.098x will open a swing leg to nearly the 1.13xx handle.
  2. Markets are position for a negative reports . They prepositioned during ADP to avoid any dangers during the dead iliquid news play which will guarantee either a quick break up 1.098x or a wide range play to test the ADP lows until players start coming back to business next Tuesday.

For the actual flows:

  1. Very tricky and dangerous day for the play. 1.088x is the nasties of all levels to be sitting for NFP.
  2. For the inline or undershoot play 1.091x is the land in the sand for a direct play (very hard to grab it if you are not already in) to 1.098x and 1.108x and beyond (in case of an undershoot and leaving wide open a runaway gap open on the highs)
  3. For the better than expected trade a quick test to 1.093x with max ext 1.096x to fade the move to the low of the 1.08xx handle.

Day is very limited in time and more importantly there is "nobody" intraday actually trading meaning ALL MICRO levels ARE USELESS for today ...so GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #976,876
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:01am Apr 3, 2015 7:01am
big boys already know the data
  • #976,877
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:02am Apr 3, 2015 7:02am
Thin volume.... but massive USD sell order... (not EU buy)
  • #976,878
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:03am Apr 3, 2015 7:03am
Quoting Dano12
big boys already know the data

And your best Guess Dano...?>
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #976,879
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:03am Apr 3, 2015 7:03am
Quoting JimmyC
Thin volume.... but massive USD sell order... (not EU buy)
can only trim 5 wave, and better data from the uS and down ??
  • #976,880
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:04am Apr 3, 2015 7:04am
Quoting Dano12
big boys already know the data
Yes, you have to read the footprints ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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