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  • #976,841
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:02am Apr 3, 2015 6:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} some call it, "Not over leveraging"
HOLY SHIT.

good morning peoples of ff.

Ready to burn some money? Line starts here
  • #976,842
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:07am Apr 3, 2015 6:07am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} You should, not only that gives other people chance to comment on them but also allows more people to see the patterns in progress and you seem to have them pretty clear in your mind.
Thank you for the encouragement. not too sure about myself but this is how i picture it, i still have a lot to learn though so please point out if i draw it wrong.....@@
ATM i'm not on Bear or Bulls but i think today NFP is gonna decide the direction of the next move.
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  • #976,843
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:09am Apr 3, 2015 6:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont really think its bull power more then,,, u get to a level to test, then u bounce back to a previous level before proceeding. between the 2 ecb diluted more. .0471 to 1060.. now with closes below 0842
Yes I see the range too thats not the point.

The thing is I treated the FOMC spike as a natural knee jerk reaction but is starting to show that it was a bit more than that but actually an active move for Hikes in September rather than June which in technical terms imply a few hundred ticks up and a few weekly candles extra. 1.098x will confirm this outlook in my books.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #976,844
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:10am Apr 3, 2015 6:10am
Quoting gettinpips
{quote} Last NFP i watched it drop -50 pips then gain +200, then another +200 pips. I made my money on the second +200 pip boost, patience is the key. Of course you'll loose if you jump in on the first or second direction it goes. you can obviously look at the news and see if its bad news or good news for USD that will also let you know. Just wait for the guessing game to end before opening, because what ever direction it chooses it continues to go strong. Also you can't be greedy, get in and out!
This is dangerous, it doesn't repeat itself. Tell me if this patterns happen again today, I'd be happy to know I was wrong.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #976,845
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:10am Apr 3, 2015 6:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} some call it, "Not over leveraging"
In some cases that is true...

Anyway, wanted to thank you for your input here Gator...I learned a lot.

P.S. - I see the spreads going wider and wider every 15 min for Oanda...this could be like a Tsunami when it is released...
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #976,846
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:13am Apr 3, 2015 6:13am
every tick higher than now leaves a bigger problem for bears on monthly ,and more chance that open will remain ,


Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes I see the range too thats not the point. The thing is I treated the FOMC spike as a natural knee jerk reaction but is starting to show that it was a bit more than that but actually an active move for Hikes in September rather than June which in technical terms imply a few hundred ticks up and a few weekly candles extra. 1.098x will confirm this outlook in my books. sisse
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,847
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:13am Apr 3, 2015 6:13am
Quoting GlobalMacro
long @ 1.0887, tp open and stop loss @ 1.0787 ....
Squaring @ 1.0887 for +/-0 before NFP.
All positions flat now.

Crunch time. Good luck everyone.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #976,848
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:15am Apr 3, 2015 6:15am
EU
M5 valid short signal calls for movement 1.087 dustbin strategy (counter trend) indicates a potential trade (long) current higher probability in a while, will check back later and review @ target 1.087 for long entry. Event risk NFP.
  • #976,849
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:18am Apr 3, 2015 6:18am
IMO the Euro is going to shoot up because the NFP numbers are going to be bad, The big boys know this that's why even though yesterday's unemployment claims and trade balance were good for the US dollar yet the Euro went up to clear all the shorts because if the Euro had went down & today's NFP numbers were released the Euro would shoot up giving buyers more profit so by pushing the Euro up since yesterday which doesn't make sense has cleared all the shorts & also traders buying the Euro will make less than what they would have made if the Euro went down yesterday.

Best thing to do is close all trades & just watch from the sidelines.
  • #976,850
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:18am Apr 3, 2015 6:18am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes I see the range too thats not the point. The thing is I treated the FOMC spike as a natural knee jerk reaction but is starting to show that it was a bit more than that but actually an active move for Hikes in September rather than June which in technical terms imply a few hundred ticks up and a few weekly candles extra. 1.098x will confirm this outlook in my books. sisse
But why would you call it knee jerk reaction in first place? FED dissapointed by moving rate hike backwards, thus reaction. Knee jerk reaction would be more apropriate if FED said pretty much nothing and wrap it in paper. Also the whole reaction of "spike" was rather slow selloff of dollar if you consider the amount it took after minutes and speech was done, quite normal market switch from rate hike now- to rate hike later.
  • #976,851
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:19am Apr 3, 2015 6:19am
Quoting TataFara
Before pulling the trigger remember two things: 1 Big boys do buy the roumers and sell the news. 2 Buffet has once said: when everyone is buying you should sell and when everyone is selling you should buy. goodnight I will wake up on Tuesday. Zzzzzzzzzzz
Why would you drop this advice for NFP? LOL.
  • #976,852
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:21am Apr 3, 2015 6:21am
Quoting JimmyC
EU M5 valid short signal calls for movement 1.087 dustbin strategy (counter trend) indicates a potential trade (long) current higher probability in a while, will check back later and review @ target 1.087 for long entry. Event risk NFP.
Note that the last breakout level hasn't been tested yet... 8420 might be interesting if the volatility opens up a bit ATR is low
  • #976,853
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:24am Apr 3, 2015 6:24am
Quoting Vorex
IMO the Euro is going to shoot up because the NFP numbers are going to be bad, The big boys know this that's why even though yesterday's unemployment claims and trade balance were good for the US dollar yet the Euro went up to clear all the shorts because if the Euro had went down & today's NFP numbers were released the Euro would shoot up giving buyers more profit so by pushing the Euro up since yesterday which doesn't make sense has cleared all the shorts & also traders buying the Euro will make less than what they would have made if the Euro...
Half the market is on holiday.... Not too sure anything will shoot anywhere...

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Cash is a good position
  • #976,854
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:28am Apr 3, 2015 6:28am
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  • #976,855
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:29am Apr 3, 2015 6:29am
i took a nap , seems pa still in same 30 pip zone and kick me out @BE of my previous trade
  • #976,856
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:30am Apr 3, 2015 6:30am
Quoting Bones
every tick higher than now leaves a bigger problem for bears on monthly ,and more chance that open will remain , {quote} {image}
In my view that looks like a classical profit taking formation rather than a reversal pullback signal. In any case, 1.20xx is locked and out of range for now but the other area is pretty much in play with a break 1.098x.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #976,857
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:31am Apr 3, 2015 6:31am
Quoting Bones
every tick higher than now leaves a bigger problem for bears on monthly ,and more chance that open will remain , {quote} {image}
tony same views here as well. I have been saying since yesterday US dollar is waiting for a calamity to happen and I see today as the day. I remember in 2012 it was a friday as well and good friday and markets were on holidays and USD/JPY tanked 100 pips on announcement of NFP. dont exactly see the same thing happening but dollar is bearish. euro has been butchered a lot. My levels are simple 1.10 on the upside and USD/JPY returning to 119 and below. I am short eur/jpy and will close around 126
  • #976,858
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:32am Apr 3, 2015 6:32am
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  • #976,859
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:33am Apr 3, 2015 6:33am
No matter where it ends up today, I expect it will touch 1.1 even if ever so briefly lol Plenty of folks working in NY today all salivating waiting to steal your face
  • #976,860
  • Edited 6:49am Apr 3, 2015 6:33am | Edited 6:49am
another massive opportunity is there on usd/cad which is very calmly putting in some weakness since it hit 1.28. I would be taking a trade on aud/cad short after NFP if the data is USD positive
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