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  • #975,781
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:18am Mar 31, 2015 11:18am
Quoting cherader
The interest rate hike may be soon, but NFP will dictate the direction sooner. The NFP is most likely to disappoint the consensus. long $EURUSD.

Gonna tell you right now. To think the Fed will raise rates and just take the "lets see what happens.." approach you may just be the one about to be dealt with.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #975,782
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:19am Mar 31, 2015 11:19am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} This phenomenon is of arising concern. I have even been vocal on Ben Bernanke's blog that a temporary USD exchange rate peg be a solution to assist in the efficacy of policy normalization in the face of an expected rise in rates. This, to arrest hot money flows away from Financial Assets and into Fixed Investment assets to assist in recovering the real interest rate. Without this, an expected rate increase will make the USD go through the roof. Ben Bernanke's blog here...http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-b...lar-stagnation...
I will read that now. I have not heard that idea yet, interesting to see if it would work. Thanks for the link.
  • #975,783
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:21am Mar 31, 2015 11:21am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} I agree that the EUR has taken a beating but let's not forget the following: * EUR since it was introduced and started trading in 1999. It is still a new currency by historical standards and has only been trading 16 years at a price of 1.1685. since then cycles have happened which have seen the EURO trade much hgiher and currently lower. The point I am making is a 16 year price level is still early to gauge what the Euro true price or PPP should be relative to the dollar or other basket of currencies. * during the Japanses economic price...
I agree with you on all your points pretty much. My main point isn't that EUR looks cheap, it's that the majority have now turned bearish and that just isn't going to work out for them. It never does... can it work for a little while? Sure, but eventually they will be fleeced.
  • #975,784
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:21am Mar 31, 2015 11:21am
Quoting flx
{quote} Don't understand the question.
Quote
Do you mean how much will be the impact of a hike for the US government and or the public debt? sisse
Yes thats the question.
Really no clue thats is a very complex and fiscal budget technical question. If I have to make a random guess I would say that depending on the hikes and the time span between hikes a couple of hundred billion per year or maybe more.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,785
  • Edited 11:36am Mar 31, 2015 11:23am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Although I exited this trade for a small profit because I wasn't willing to monitor the position for the rest of the session, I do still think this could turn out to be a good long trade provided today's lows hold.
A retest of 1.0724 level was successful... there's a small bear trap underneath which can squeeze the price up over
1.0772/76 swing high.
For this to happen requires today's low remain in place.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #975,786
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:25am Mar 31, 2015 11:25am
EUR/USD fell yesterday dramatically with a drop of more than 100 pip since the break of the support line 1.0820 , Price keep pushing down aiming for the next support level 1.069.
  • #975,787
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:29am Mar 31, 2015 11:29am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I agree with you on all your points pretty much. My main point isn't that EUR looks cheap, it's that the majority have now turned bearish and that just isn't going to work out for them. It never does... can it work for a little while? Sure, but eventually they will be fleeced.

Spot on.

Let's not forget that a dropping oil price and stronger dollar is hurting the US economy, add to that the danger of secular stagnation which is now rearing its ugly head and finally endorsed by Yellen last Friday after having had its first notice last December and I can't see the FED raising rates this year at all, something that I have been saying all year against very vocal opposition here and in the mainstream media.

We are seeing signs everywhere that actually the US economy is not as rosy as it first appears as soon as you dig down just one layer. Here in the EU we are already talking unwinding and the main economies are not happy with either with low interest rates, the Germans are already talking about giving up on QE here all together.

The QE here is a fist, nobody has ever tried it with negative interest rates, deposit that is.

Dollar is appreciating on anticipation, it is just chasing yield, as always once the realisation settles in lots of traders will be in for a rude awakening. The FED can't raise, not this year it will kill whatever little growth there is over there swiftly.

Then finally we have deflation, the numbers from the US are far worse than they are in Europe.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #975,788
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:31am Mar 31, 2015 11:31am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I never said it was going on a tear, I have repeated many times I think sideways/higher for a bit. What it has going for it is people like you who can't even fathom the euro going up from here. And the majority are now short. Europe runs a huge trade surplus as well. It doesn't have a savings problem.... It has a peripheral yield problem and a lack of bank lending but this isn't re-encouraged by the collapse in the euro. And when trading EUR/USD we're not just talking about the Euro, the USD matters as well, and the USD is an utter disaster...

I am glad you brought up the fact that Trade deficit and debt/GDP should hammer on the dollar. The problem with that theory is this was the exact same case during Reagan's full term when we had a deteriorating balance sheet through a major trade deficit, loose fiscal policy through tax cuts and military spending, and a fed who was actually on the other side trying to establish tight monentay policy. This saw the perfect storm where the last of the counter trend trades gave up and dollar exploded higher.

The dollar is in the middle of a cycle where we are going to start seeing gradual interest rate hikes and a final burst of the stock market higher as mergermaina will have one final show before rates get too high and deals become too expensive to finance. Until EU starts to show life in inflation and trade flows both speculative and asset based come back which can take several months to years in happening the world favors dollars over euros.

below is a link to my thread where I talk about the alchemy of finance and how soros predicted dollars would rise then fall which he rode both waves. He talks about the Reagan administrations loose policies similar to what we have today and a fed combating the deterioration in the balance she by trying to lower rates and jawbone dolllar down. You don't have to read the thread just look at the picture of the dollar and we are on a trajectory similar to that where the only way THE DOLLAR WILL FALL IS A MAJOR INTERNATIONL MARKET MELTDOWN OR MONETARY INTERVENTION FROM MULTIPLE CB'S
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=530499
  • #975,789
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:32am Mar 31, 2015 11:32am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} Spot on. Let's not forget that a dropping oil price and stronger dollar is hurting the US economy, add to that the danger of secular stagnation which is now rearing its ugly head and finally endorsed by Yellen last Friday after having had its first notice last December and I can't see the FED raising rates this year at all, something that I have been saying all year against very vocal opposition here and in the mainstream media. We are seeing signs everywhere that actually the US economy is not as rosy as it first appears as soon as you...
Yeah the fed isn't raising this year.. And yes things aren't so rosy for the US. The US market is going to take an absolute beating soon enough. That's my next best long term (2-3 year horizon) investment.
  • #975,790
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:35am Mar 31, 2015 11:35am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I agree with you on all your points pretty much. My main point isn't that EUR looks cheap, it's that the majority have now turned bearish and that just isn't going to work out for them. It never does... can it work for a little while? Sure, but eventually they will be fleeced.
when will this Bearish action take place though that's the thing i honestly have no clue :/
  • #975,791
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:35am Mar 31, 2015 11:35am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} The dollar is in the middle of a cycle where we are going to start seeing gradual interest rate hikes and a final burst of the stock market higher as mergermaina will have one final show before rates get too high and deals become too expensive to finance.
I personally don't think there's more than 3-5% upside from recent highs in the US market over the next year or so and then I think we will come down 20-30% (or more) over the course of a few years. It is the next huge trade/investment that I am eyeing......then after that fall I expect the next massive leg to come. We'll see
  • #975,792
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:36am Mar 31, 2015 11:36am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I agree with you on all your points pretty much. My main point isn't that EUR looks cheap, it's that the majority have now turned bearish and that just isn't going to work out for them. It never does... can it work for a little while? Sure, but eventually they will be fleeced.
100% agree dollar longs ahve become so crowded that say the fed does not raise AT ALL THIS year we would say a 10-15 decline easily in dollar in a span of a week or more.
  • #975,793
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:38am Mar 31, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I personally don't think there's more than 3-5% upside from recent highs in the US market over the next year or so and then I think we will come down 20-30% (or more) over the course of a few years. It is the next huge trade/investment that I am eyeing......then after that fall I expect the next massive leg to come. We'll see
Indeed a non fed rate hike this year will see quick liquidation in dollar longs.
  • #975,794
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:39am Mar 31, 2015 11:39am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If buyers flip at 1.2650 the short worth 300 pips
have had geppy and uc up all day they have been contrarian pip for pip, been scalping the shit out them, one or the other has lead by sometimes 10 to 15 sec,s micro moves havent done it for awhile but brought back old memories, many chips make big potatoes

for now watching geppy 178 40 could be a barrier to fukup everything, but if she goes Im thinking yep 3 - 400 maybe on UC, considering shes dumping on crap cad data, makes me think some deep pockets in play positioning for todays close, very very important close is 7,40am here and full alert eyeballs popping
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #975,795
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:39am Mar 31, 2015 11:39am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} 100% agree dollar longs ahve become so crowded that say the fed does not raise AT ALL THIS year we would say a 10-15 decline easily in dollar in a span of a week or more.
Yes honestly I don't have to look at anything else other than the fact that the USD trade has become way over crowded.. to the point one literally gets attacked for saying USD should come down a bit from here. It's lunacy. The madness of the unthinking crowds.
  • #975,796
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:39am Mar 31, 2015 11:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well, its is very bearish and is not much to hide to be honest. More important for today is Quarterly close. Despite of the exact close today. Only a miracle will stop euro seeing parity in the next Q bar. Map is getting clearer by the minute for this week. sisse
I see bear targets quite clearly expressed allready (first 1.0340 and if it will go further - 0.95x is next), just corrective swinging around is what I'm looking for.. If it wont produce a HH before 690's, then further bearishness could get quite frustrating/hesitant.
And as you mentioned - lower liquidity - isnt that a perfect opportunity to bring it higher cheaply..
69
  • #975,797
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:42am Mar 31, 2015 11:42am
Imagine if the Fed doesn't raise in June.

DXY is going to print a very ugly candle

-

If we are throwing our opinions out there- I think parity is a bullshit psych number that really has no meaning other than a benchmark the media likes to toss around. The targets are below parity. Look at parity on a chart and tell me exactly how much of a difference it made once reached.

I don't believe in below parity without a pullback. Most times- there is a pullback before a target. We have seen no such pullback.
  • #975,798
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:46am Mar 31, 2015 11:46am
Quoting Pharm0r
Imagine if the Fed doesn't raise in June. DXY is going to print a very ugly candle - If we are throwing our opinions out there- I think parity is a bullshit psych number that really has no meaning other than a benchmark the media likes to toss around. The targets are below parity. I don't believe in below parity without a pullback. Most times- there is a pullback before a target.
markets are not pricing June
  • #975,799
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:49am Mar 31, 2015 11:49am
Quoting darimik
{quote} markets are not pricing June
Did you conduct a survey of the markets? What did they tell you they are pricing?
  • #975,800
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:49am Mar 31, 2015 11:49am
Quoting Pharm0r
Imagine if the Fed doesn't raise in June. DXY is going to print a very ugly candle - If we are throwing our opinions out there- I think parity is a bullshit psych number that really has no meaning other than a benchmark the media likes to toss around. The targets are below parity. I don't believe in below parity without a pullback. Most times- there is a pullback before a target. We have seen no such pullback.
I am of the suspicion that this is the reality of the situation.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
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