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  • #975,761
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:54am Mar 31, 2015 10:54am
Quoting scouse12345
{quote} Oh! ffs..stop spouting shite..... plenty of money has been made on that "consensus" short.. You will roll out your old chestnut next.........." it's going to 1.11... or is it 1.13...... but just to cover your arse....it may go 1.05..... how fucking big is that arse of yours... get real... Actually just re-read your buddys journal....1.16... lol.... that made me fuckin laff.........
What does someone else's predictions have to do with mine? Get a clue. And it may go to 1.05 is not a cover, it's a reality.
  • #975,762
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:55am Mar 31, 2015 10:55am
I still think we can go lower with this current move. Im expecting a bit more consolidation at 073 area then to head down lower to ~056 area. Just my two cents
  • #975,763
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:55am Mar 31, 2015 10:55am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} One scenario you may not be thinking of. Say the DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April..... where do you think some of that $$$ will go? I'd think some Euros will be bought. -- So that's one scenario that isn't exactly miraculous after such a massive up move in the Dax. Again, I'm not saying EU can't go back to the lows or even a bit lower, although I do think that's unlikely. Originally my plan was go long from 1.05 levels to 1.08-1.1 then short for parity, but I'm just not seeing parity coming any...
I agree with sisse. Why go to euros paying negative deposits or even flat when not only do hey have a falling currency but a falling stock market.

Dollars would be the destination simply because you have a rising stock market, a interest rate that is higher and as soros states there is nothing better to be invested in that a rising domestic stock market with a strong domestic currency. It add additional Bps to your net return annually.
  • #975,764
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:56am Mar 31, 2015 10:56am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} I agree with sisse. Why go to euros paying negative deposits or even flat when not only do hey have a falling currency but a falling stock market. Dollars would be the destination simply because you have a rising stock market, a interest rate that is higher and as soros states there is nothing better to be invested in that a rising domestic stock market with a strong domestic currency. It add additional Bps to your net return annually.
That's not taking into account that the euro has dropped 30% in a year. I don't see how that can be ignored. I'm not saying it can't and won't go lower, I'm just saying in terms of seeking value , that's how money moves around at times.
  • #975,765
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:57am Mar 31, 2015 10:57am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} FX futures are interesting. Do you trade them past settlement into TKY trading session ... or call it a day at settlement...

I hold overnight which I have to pay additional margin. But futures if you trade them only during US session and close out before the close margin with some brokers is like $500 to hold EUR contract. And you still get 12.50 a tick move which is so much better than plunking down $500 on spot and only hoping to get $1-3$ a tick depending on your margin.
  • #975,766
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:59am Mar 31, 2015 10:59am
Quoting johnsmart
euro became a bit weaker than last week, but now the weakest currency is AUD. In the view of analysts at BAML, the pair could grind lower to the area of 0.73 towards the end of the current year and 0.68 at the end of 2016.
nope go monthly and zoom right out, she is flirting with an all time mid zone,
pretty much where every pr should or wants to be, mid or average price, even 300 pip up or down would still be in a comfort zone for value
Im thinking could scalp the shit out of her both ways leaving runners once she leaves this zone those runners could really come home to roost, considering she has positive swap, longs are preferred medium to long term, but if scalping doesnt really matter
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #975,767
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:59am Mar 31, 2015 10:59am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} What does someone else's predictions have to do with mine? Get a clue. And it may go to 1.05 is not a cover, it's a reality.

Because you have allowed him to colour your judgement, i read the journal, last several pages you agre with him that the eur/usd is going on a "major tear" he moved his long stop loss to 0853 the other day i beleive.... must be smarting from that one today.

Convince me CK.... what has the Euro got going for it...fundamental...lucky heather... anything... convince me.....
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #975,768
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:00am Mar 31, 2015 11:00am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} I agree with sisse. Why go to euros paying negative deposits or even flat when not only do hey have a falling currency but a falling stock market. Dollars would be the destination simply because you have a rising stock market, a interest rate that is higher and as soros states there is nothing better to be invested in that a rising domestic stock market with a strong domestic currency. It add additional Bps to your net return annually.
This phenomenon is of arising concern. I have even been vocal on Ben Bernanke's blog that a temporary USD exchange rate peg be a solution to assist in the efficacy of policy normalization in the face of an expected rise in rates. This, to arrest hot money flows away from Financial Assets and into Fixed Investment assets to assist in recovering the real interest rate. Without this, an expected rate increase will make the USD go through the roof.

Ben Bernanke's blog here...http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-b...lar-stagnation

So...

If the fed wants to stick to a rate increase timeline....throw in the peg.

If the fed wants to remain flexible with rates, then do it as the global economy recovers. then pace the rate increase with the global recovery.


my 2 cents.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #975,769
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:02am Mar 31, 2015 11:02am
Just because i'm bored... short 736.
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #975,770
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:03am Mar 31, 2015 11:03am
Quoting KiwiTrada
important test for UC bears underway
Daily is going to close not far from this

Attached Image
  • #975,771
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:03am Mar 31, 2015 11:03am
  •  flx
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Avoid Death by a Thousand Stops | 86 Posts
Quoting sisse
{quote} go for it ... drop us a line in July to see how it goes... {quote} Dollar of course. Why on earth any sane investor would pay banks a "deposit fee" and leave mountains of cash sitting in euros with negative rates when the FED is hiking. sisse
Sisse,

How much money the US treasury have to pay for each percent rates increase?
What goes around comes around
  • #975,772
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:04am Mar 31, 2015 11:04am
The interest rate hike may be soon, but NFP will dictate the direction sooner.

The NFP is most likely to disappoint the consensus. long $EURUSD.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #975,773
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:05am Mar 31, 2015 11:05am
Buy. eur/usd 0739. T/P 0820 100% MARGIN
  • #975,774
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:06am Mar 31, 2015 11:06am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Daily is going to close not far from this {image}
no leg would be even better, hrly she is smidgen below todays open zone and been trying to grind thru the 50sma, if she does she could plop and deal to that leg and some must admit its a pretty awesome candle tho
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #975,775
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:08am Mar 31, 2015 11:08am
Quoting scouse12345
{quote} Because you have allowed him to colour your judgement, i read the journal, last several pages you agre with him that the eur/usd is going on a "major tear" he moved his long stop loss to 0853 the other day i beleive.... must be smarting from that one today. Convince me CK.... what has the Euro got going for it...fundamental...lucky heather... anything... convince me.....
I never said it was going on a tear, I have repeated many times I think sideways/higher for a bit.

What it has going for it is people like you who can't even fathom the euro going up from here. And the majority are now short. Europe runs a huge trade surplus as well. It doesn't have a savings problem.... It has a peripheral yield problem and a lack of bank lending but this isn't re-encouraged by the collapse in the euro.
And when trading EUR/USD we're not just talking about the Euro, the USD matters as well, and the USD is an utter disaster long term. Regardless of the fact they have stopped printing, it is still the greatest debtor nation in the history of the world, and everyone knows they will continue to print in a matter of time too. I'm not here to convince you of anything, but maybe you will be a little more cautious seeing my point of view. good luck.
  • #975,776
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:09am Mar 31, 2015 11:09am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} I hold overnight which I have to pay additional margin. But futures if you trade them only during US session and close out before the close margin with some brokers is like $500 to hold EUR contract. And you still get 12.50 a tick move which is so much better than plunking down $500 on spot and only hoping to get $1-3$ a tick depending on your margin.
It depends on the round trip commission. Generally spot commissions are lower than futures.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #975,777
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:13am Mar 31, 2015 11:13am
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} This phenomenon is of arising concern. I have even been vocal on Ben Bernanke's blog that a temporary USD exchange rate peg be a solution to assist in the efficacy of policy normalization in the face of an expected rise in rates. This, to arrest hot money flows away from Financial Assets and into Fixed Investment assets to assist in recovering the real interest rate. Without this, an expected rate increase will make the USD go through the roof. Ben Bernanke's blog here...http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-b...lar-stagnation...
Very good link and reading!!!. Thanks for sharing.

Quoting flx
{quote} Sisse, How much money the US treasury have to pay for each percent rates increase?
Don't understand the question. Do you mean how much will be the impact of a hike for the US government and or the public debt?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,778
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:15am Mar 31, 2015 11:15am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} no leg would be even better, hrly she is smidgen below todays open zone and been trying to grind thru the 50sma, if she does she could plop and deal to that leg and some must admit its a pretty awesome candle tho
If buyers flip at 1.2650 the short worth 300 pips
  • #975,779
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:16am Mar 31, 2015 11:16am
  •  flx
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Avoid Death by a Thousand Stops | 86 Posts
{quote} Don't understand the question. Do you mean how much will be the impact of a hike for the US government and or the public debt? sisse[/quote]

Yes thats the question.
What goes around comes around
  • #975,780
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:17am Mar 31, 2015 11:17am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} That's not taking into account that the euro has dropped 30% in a year. I don't see how that can be ignored. I'm not saying it can't and won't go lower, I'm just saying in terms of seeking value , that's how money moves around at times.
I agree that the EUR has taken a beating but let's not forget the following:
* EUR since it was introduced and started trading in 1999. It is still a new currency by historical standards and has only been trading 16 years at a price of 1.1685. since then cycles have happened which have seen the EURO trade much hgiher and currently lower. The point I am making is a 16 year price level is still early to gauge what the Euro true price or PPP should be relative to the dollar or other basket of currencies.

* during the Japanses economic price bubble that took place in 1986 the yen kept declining over 40%
There are other currency crises which have taken place either through coordinated intervention such as the decline of the dollar near the end of Regans term or Japan with the yen the last few years.

If I was a fund manager, pensioner I would not be investing in currencies for the following reasons:
* Say I buy stocks in European markets I have to hedge this either through the forward market or spot. Some do options to. If you look at eur forwards currently with the increased volatility it would cost me more premium to hedge this currency whereas other modern countries with a less volatile currency it would be cheaper to hedge.
* Again, I go back to the point of FED and BOE are the likely first CB''s to raise rates currently in whatever time the deem fit. As a fund manager if I am invested in domestic stocks of these countries, and you have flow shifting to those currencys through asset (stock) purchases including speculative flow that domestic currency will appreciate.
Now that I am long stocks in that currency, the exchange rate is rising due to speculation on a rate hike, AND THE RATE HIKE CYCLE HITS, this means I have a few more years to benefit in a rising stock market and additional portfolio return from the added domestic currency return.

Just because something looks cheap does not mean it is a value. People talk about buying the lowest PE stock within a sector which has a higher pe reading. If there were 10 stocks 9 of which had high PE multiples and the 10th had a very low PE multiple people would say OHHH this is undervalued compared to the sector I should buy!!! There is a reason that low PE stock is not following in lockstep with its peers because fundamentally or financially it is flawed at the moment. And the EUR is flawed at the moment.
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