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  • #973,261
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:01pm Mar 24, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Palinco, he does not sound as would it be a hard time for him. When your account is big enough, you eventually can play those games. But do not be surprised, when your account value from time to time gets heavy spanking. The problem is, that he ridiculed people for exactly that what he is doing now. And btw: inside a prolonged trending move everyone can easily be a hero by trend following. That works until the music stops. The fun then starts, when we see more deep or choppy countertrend action than they thought. Trading isnot about right...
You make sense. I remember how I blew my profit and invested fund, when I started getting over confidence. But like he said he is mastery of money management. I am also optimistic he will get this over.
  • #973,262
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:03pm Mar 24, 2015 4:03pm
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up up and away
YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #973,263
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:07pm Mar 24, 2015 4:07pm
Situation of Greek banks doesn't look good, technical analysis will not help here.

Sources say ECB are believed to be planning a call tomorrow to assess funding for Greek banks
  • #973,264
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:08pm Mar 24, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Then that's the right spot for ye , good luck (and don't forget to kiss your sanity good bye :-P))
insane meets weirdo cuties, sounds pretty right.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #973,265
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:11pm Mar 24, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Thanks for explaining, Sisse. But the great question isn't answered yet. The question was: how in hell can not even the economists at the FED agree, if a strong USD is good or bad for economy? If they can not even agree on that, how can they agree on other topics which may be way more complicated? And the other question which I find intriguing: many economists still think, that the value and direction of a currency-pair can be determined by observing yield-differentials.It is something that sounds logic and obvious. But as Rogoff and others...

because economists do not behave the way you think they do. they are no monolithic block. their views on variables depend on what "school" they belong to: keynesians, austrians etc... no central bank has ONE economic model which is giving them the ONE answer, even if they have an inflation target. my knowledge of this is more than ten years old, but i still think these findings of an empirical research are reliable. at least all of them believe in the quantity theory of money. some may assess the benefits and risks of an increase in the amount of money in a different way, but atm they all aim at re-inflationing. this is a main reason why bonds are no longer an asset class for me to hold.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #973,266
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:16pm Mar 24, 2015 4:16pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} you and me could not necessarily agree that the fair price I or you would be willing to pay for a Ferrarri even if the current price is already set by the market. sisse
If you got a vintage one in good condition , I'll make you a bid above fair market price ... I'm sure we can agree on that
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #973,267
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:22pm Mar 24, 2015 4:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} A Central Bank is not a single dictator dictating policies as he/she wish. In the case of the FED, Yellen is just the "Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System". Obviously she has a lot of leverage because she is the voice of the FED but the decision are based on the discussion of all the complex technical issues in monetary policy and with all the macroeconomic reports on top. They DONT AGREE because THATS is the EXACT reason there is a BOARD not a single person digesting all the data and making all of the decision....

I know that all, Sisse, that the FED is a board and so on.

The point is: even when I would have studied economics for centuries, I would not necessarily come to the same conclusion than my fellow student. Because we all would have our own view of things, our own perception, and also will only know what is right or wrong in hindsight.

Even so the Fundamental analyst think, he is basing his judgement on a sound application of some tools and measures, mathematics, statistics, etc., it all boils down, and you already made reference to it, to perception, individual interpretation and opinion. Here as in every other method of analysis there is no difference.

And with your example of Ferrari or the rate differentials we now could discuss EMH
  • #973,268
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:24pm Mar 24, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Thanks for explaining, Sisse. But the great question isn't answered yet. The question was: how in hell can not even the economists at the FED agree, if a strong USD is good or bad for economy? If they can not even agree on that, how can they agree on other topics which may be way more complicated? And the other question which I find intriguing: many economists still think, that the value and direction of a currency-pair can be determined by observing yield-differentials.It is something that sounds logic and obvious. But as Rogoff and others...
It is very little known fact that I served on the Fed committee for more than 12 years, twice was considered for the chair but my background did not get me required number of votes. An ancient coin, believed to be the first ever is kept in a vault and all major decisions there are carefully taken after full three tosses.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #973,269
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:28pm Mar 24, 2015 4:28pm
CHF is a good example to mess all you guys up.

Shit, it is unpegged, a big drop. Oh shit, interest rate is lowered, a big bounce. Oh shit again it reached parity, a big drop again.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #973,270
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:31pm Mar 24, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting ffleo
CHF is a good example to mess all you guys up. Shit, it is unpegged, a big drop. Oh shit, interest rate is lowered, a big bounce. Oh shit again it reached parity, a big drop again.
it is shit all over the place: fundamental? technical? which one? oh shit, no one, oh, I mean no one of parity
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #973,271
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:32pm Mar 24, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} because economists do not behave the way you think they do. they are no monolithic block. their views on variables depend on what "school" they belong to: keynesians, austrians etc... no central bank has ONE economic model which is giving them the ONE answer, even if they have an inflation target. my knowledge of this is more than ten years old, but i still think these findings of an empirical research are reliable. at least all of them believe in the quantity theory of money. some may assess the benefits and risks of an increase...

That is what I said the whole day indirect with the question why they even can not agree on if the strong USD is good or bad for economy


At least it seems, that the Austians do not think, that a debt crisis can be solved by printing more money (thus creating more debt)
  • #973,272
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:33pm Mar 24, 2015 4:33pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} It is very little known fact that I served on the Fed committee for more than 12 years, twice was considered for the chair but my background did not get me required number of votes. An ancient coin, believed to be the first ever is kept in a vault and all major decisions there are carefully taken after full three tosses.
I knew I'm up against someone BIG ... don't you CB's take a break , on poor li'l penny pinching retail traders' case in retail forums...
Jesus Christ , don't you guys have a trillion-dollar markets to move or something...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #973,273
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:34pm Mar 24, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it is shit all over the place: fundamental? technical? which one? oh shit, no one, oh, I mean no one of parity
I like Petro's harmonics.

Hey Petro, can you do a harmonic analysis on CHF?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #973,274
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting ffleo
CHF is a good example to mess all you guys up. Shit, it is unpegged, a big drop. Oh shit, interest rate is lowered, a big bounce. Oh shit again it reached parity, a big drop again.
You missed the boat/yacht. Following was posted 2 months ago.

Quoting Chicky
{quote} These are the only events that make you money. Buy usd/chf now, it will go back to from where it fell. Add one zero to your account, then two more on similar happenings............... keep on hoping that your account does not get caught in any such event until you manage to add three zeros to your account. See you in six years on your yacht.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #973,275
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it is shit all over the place: fundamental? technical? which one? oh shit, no one, oh, I mean no one of parity

but I heard that your first wife is now the boss of the FED

So, please tell her, I would need the EURUSD first up to say around 1.20, and than down to 0.80

Thanks in advance. You are the best
  • #973,276
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} It is very little known fact that I served on the Fed committee for more than 12 years, twice was considered for the chair but my background did not get me required number of votes. An ancient coin, believed to be the first ever is kept in a vault and all major decisions there are carefully taken after full three tosses.

  • #973,277
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm Mar 24, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} I knew I'm up against someone BIG ... don't you CB's take a break , on poor li'l penny pinching retail traders' case in retail forums... Jesus Christ , don't you guys have a trillion-dollar markets to move or something...
Yes, guys like chicky move the trillion-dollar market.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #973,278
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:39pm Mar 24, 2015 4:39pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but I heard that your first wife is now the boss of the FED So, please tell her, I would need the EURUSD first up to say around 1.20, and than down to 0.80 Thanks in advance. You are the best
She is my ex (oh god am I that old?). I will call her up, i am sure she can move the trillion-dollar market with just one burp.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #973,279
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:44pm Mar 24, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I like Petro's harmonics. Hey Petro, can you do a harmonic analysis on CHF?
There ain't no harmony there. Pure chaos!
  • #973,280
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:45pm Mar 24, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} You missed the boat/yacht. Following was posted 2 months ago. {quote}
what analysis tool did you use? is it purely fundamental or technical?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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