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  • #7,121
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:07pm Mar 10, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting JoeyTTU
{quote} That's what I have been thinking... But the $ is on steroids right now. I'm using the 4h
well the usd/cad has been on a tear for 2 years now, just for grins and chuckles throw a 6 ema on that 4 chart, look at that and hourly with a 24 ema on it , see what you can see . When something is trending you don't want to take a trade against the trend anywhere around those averages, look at them one the eur , the gbp etc. Not a holy grail by any means but when something is on a tear , well you get the point.
  • #7,122
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:12pm Mar 10, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} well the usd/cad has been on a tear for 2 years now, just for grins and chuckles throw a 6 ema on that 4 chart, look at that and hourly with a 24 ema on it , see what you can see . When something is trending you don't want to take a trade against the trend anywhere around those averages, look at them one the eur , the gbp etc. Not a holy grail by any means but when something is on a tear , well you get the point.
The only time you would go against a trending trade is on event risk and/or if the price action is way above a 10 EMA (Daily / 4H / hourly if you like the risk) like over 2 standard deviations or above a bollinger band. Even then you are looking at an exit around the 10 EMA at best. << I just see that as a nice entry point
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,123
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:17pm Mar 10, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} The only time you would go against a trending trade is on event risk and/or if the price action is way above a 10 EMA (Daily / 4H / hourly if you like the risk) like over 2 standard deviations or above a bollinger band. Even then you are looking at an exit around the 10 EMA at best. << I just see that as a nice entry point
Totally agree, but unless you work at it how many traders here do that, , bout as many as haven't got slaughtered in the last couple of weeks with eur and gbp cad , take your pick lol,. Cant just think well this has went this way long enough time to reverse etc , you know what Im saying.
  • #7,124
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:54pm Mar 10, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} Totally agree, but unless you work at it how many traders here do that, , bout as many as haven't got slaughtered in the last couple of weeks with eur and gbp cad , take your pick lol,. Cant just think well this has went this way long enough time to reverse etc , you know what Im saying.
Yeah what he said...lol

All i know is that getting long CAD before a jobs number when housingng starts were bad and exploratory oil drilling getting expensive and ontario citizens complaining about the job market is probably not the best idea, even if some fancy lines say itis.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,125
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:07pm Mar 10, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} Ok, I guess those going for baby pips might not have liked it. But it came in 70 pips so it's not too bad for them if they averaged. I'm just upset because I decided to hold and build this stupid position rather than jumping in on the usdchf, because it was a 20 pip spread and higher margins. Now it's 20 cents higher, while the usdcad is only 8 cents higher .... sigh
You don't know how many times I entered and closed that pair just out of lack of patience when I just should have held because it always moved up eventually lol.
  • #7,126
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:13pm Mar 10, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} Totally agree, but unless you work at it how many traders here do that, , bout as many as haven't got slaughtered in the last couple of weeks with eur and gbp cad , take your pick lol,. Cant just think well this has went this way long enough time to reverse etc , you know what Im saying.
Agree. There has to be sustained economic news before a real trend reversal does any damage. US is so strong it can hiccup here and there and still survive coming out the winner in long run. When a real reversal happens and not just consolidation, it will be clear as day to all of us.
  • #7,127
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:28pm Mar 10, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} Yeah what he said...lol All i know is that getting long CAD before a jobs number when housingng starts were bad and exploratory oil drilling getting expensive and ontario citizens complaining about the job market is probably not the best idea, even if some fancy lines say itis.
lol, nothing fancy , just gives you an idea what the daily direction is,same as 1440ema on a minute chart
  • #7,128
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:37pm Mar 10, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting julesocean
{quote} You don't know how many times I entered and closed that pair just out of lack of patience when I just should have held because it always moved up eventually lol.
Rightlfully so. 20 pip spreads and 50 pip 5 min swings is hard to hold on to. I was trying to buy in the high 8000s and I just didnt have the stomach for it
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,129
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:13pm Mar 10, 2015 5:13pm
Hit me.
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  • #7,130
  • Mar 10, 2015 9:44pm Mar 10, 2015 9:44pm
Quoting pbylina
Hit me. {image}
almost there for ya, lol
  • #7,131
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:19pm Mar 10, 2015 10:19pm
That was a nice run. "Fug you mother fugger. This ain't bout no mother fugin' run." LOL @ Floored Documentary.
  • #7,132
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:36pm Mar 10, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting pbylina
That was a nice run. "Fug you mother fugger. This ain't bout no mother fugin' run." LOL @ Floored Documentary.

Wait until London session open. We really about to go for a ride.
  • #7,133
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:58pm Mar 10, 2015 11:58pm
Quoting julesocean
{quote} Wait until London session open. We really about to go for a ride.
would be great to get a nice pop, 1.29 to 1.3 area would be nice before Friday, That area is the 272 and 618 top side of the fib extensions of this range we have been in.
  • #7,134
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:50am Mar 11, 2015 9:50am
Come on breakout yeeehaw
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,135
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:21am Mar 11, 2015 10:21am
Well... I hate to say it but I finally got out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What can we learn from my loss?!

1) $ is on roids
2) doesn't matter what you think (especially if what you think doesn't make too much since)... the market does what it wants
3) don't be an idiot like me and trade against the overall trend
4) I hate news (when it doesn't work in my favor )
5) I made this trade to hedge against my EU short because I was scared of a rebound/reversal, so luckily I still came out (+) --
6) I should've stuck to a typical small pip or % stop-loss
7) Accept my loss and move on with discipline and patience... Not try to make it all back with 1 trade
8) Any words of advise from anyone else?
To maximize your gains you must minimize your losses
  • #7,136
  • Edited 11:26am Mar 11, 2015 11:11am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting JoeyTTU
Well... I hate to say it but I finally got out... {image} What can we learn from my loss?! 1) $ is on roids 2) doesn't matter what you think (especially if what you think doesn't make too much since)... the market does what it wants 3) don't be an idiot like me and trade against the overall trend 4) I hate news (when it doesn't work in my favor ) 5) I made this trade to hedge against my EU short because I was scared of a rebound/reversal, so luckily I still came out (+) -- 6) I should've stuck to a typical small pip or % stop-loss 7) Accept my...
Never short into support without covering half the position before the support?

Study wave theory?

It was a decent short especially with the next day doji, but once the price action breaks the doji shadow high, you should be looking to get out. Or double down if you are crazy ... lol.

Dont worry. If you still want to get short, I would throw up limit orders at 2880 to 2960 at 20 pip intervals at tenth lots then hold them over the weekend. If they dont get there the cancel the orders before the weekend. Any way I would target at 2700 and maybe a quick rip down to 2650.

Btw... I am not going to short because I have been long for almost 4 months. I would definitely look to add after a pullback.

Its currently too expensive to add long here. I am just passing the time shorting the cadjpy for baby pips
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,137
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:36am Mar 11, 2015 11:36am
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} Never short into support without covering half the position before the support? Study wave theory? It was a decent short especially with the next day doji, but once the price action breaks the doji shadow high, you should be looking to get out. Or double down if you are crazy ... lol. Dont worry. If you still want to get short, I would throw up limit orders at 2880 to 2960 at 20 pip intervals at tenth lots then hold them over the weekend. If they dont get there the cancel the orders before the weekend. Any way I would target at 2700 and...
Thanks I appreciate it. And there's no way I'm shorting this pair again. I'll wait for an entry point to open a long position.
To maximize your gains you must minimize your losses
  • #7,138
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:09pm Mar 11, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting JoeyTTU
Well... I hate to say it but I finally got out... {image} What can we learn from my loss?! 1) $ is on roids 2) doesn't matter what you think (especially if what you think doesn't make too much since)... the market does what it wants 3) don't be an idiot like me and trade against the overall trend 4) I hate news (when it doesn't work in my favor ) 5) I made this trade to hedge against my EU short because I was scared of a rebound/reversal, so luckily I still came out (+) -- 6) I should've stuck to a typical small pip or % stop-loss 7) Accept my...
This is a very humble post, and you are on your way to becoming a successful trader just by realizing all of the points you mentioned. Well done!
  • #7,139
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:23pm Mar 11, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting julesocean
{quote} This is a very humble post, and you are on your way to becoming a successful trader just by realizing all of the points you mentioned. Well done!
Thank you!
To maximize your gains you must minimize your losses
  • #7,140
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:15pm Mar 11, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting JoeyTTU
Well... I hate to say it but I finally got out... {image} What can we learn from my loss?! 1) $ is on roids 2) doesn't matter what you think (especially if what you think doesn't make too much since)... the market does what it wants 3) don't be an idiot like me and trade against the overall trend 4) I hate news (when it doesn't work in my favor ) 5) I made this trade to hedge against my EU short because I was scared of a rebound/reversal, so luckily I still came out (+) -- 6) I should've stuck to a typical small pip or % stop-loss 7) Accept my...
roids lol, some other pairs off the roids going the other way is helping, Sucks having to take a loss, you my friend kept it from turning into a huge loser or adding to a loser , took me thousands and thousands to get that thru my head , well done. Dont know if you read my other post to you but here is an hourly chart with that average on it . NOT A HOLY GRAIL, just a tool , gives you a sense of the days direction. As you can see we had several days where the days mid point in the same area , waiting for nfp, nfp better than expected by quite a bit. I posted a daily chart over the week end showing a close above a bull flag, havent cleared the last daily high at 1.28 yet, but its taking a crack at it.Anyhow look at that average across several pairs, eur, gbp aud, makes for a hell of an easy week when something is trending. Once again , just for usdoutlaw lol, nothing magical just a tool thats all . Takes some patience and practice. Looks easy atm but when you are taking them positions the right side of your chart is blank. Trading right to left hell no one is wrong lol. cheers man
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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