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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #261
  • Mar 9, 2015 7:34pm Mar 9, 2015 7:34pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #262
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:17am Mar 10, 2015 3:17am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} In the upper right corner of the screenshot seen advisor who trelling deal.
Good morning vvFish,

I know you are using TS, but I meant which is the number you put in TS in NFP, 10 pips? 5 pips?

Thank you in advance,
  • #263
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:06am Mar 10, 2015 4:06am
USDNOK
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #264
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:10am Mar 10, 2015 4:10am
Wednesday
10:30
03/11/15
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
Average response when triggered flip-flops 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
03/11/15
GB Industrial Production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
22:00
03/11/15
NZ Interest
(NZ Official Cash Rate), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #265
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:36am Mar 10, 2015 4:36am
Where do you guys check the news results, any quick source to execute positions before price gaps?
  • #266
  • Edited 6:20am Mar 10, 2015 6:10am | Edited 6:20am
NewsImpact provides a news widget that broadcasts the economic news data very fast.
To launch the widget go to www.newsimpact.com and click on the Real Time News button which is located on the middle of the page.

Using this widget there is no need to manually refresh the page. When the data are released they automatically show up with appropriate coloring AND with calculated deviation figures for both actual and revision. Nice eh?
  • #267
  • Mar 10, 2015 6:17am Mar 10, 2015 6:17am
Quoting Ed-Forex
Where do you guys check the news results, any quick source to execute positions before price gaps?
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #268
  • Mar 10, 2015 7:57am Mar 10, 2015 7:57am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The probability of the Fed rate hike in the first half 2015 increased.

Chinese inflation has published a mixed focus towards growth, which can be skipped, since the statistical office hinted that the price increase is due to the holiday period, and as a consequence of the rise in prices of rice, vegetables and fruits. CN CPI (Y / Y) 1.4% vs. 1%.

Greece will not receive financial aid this month. Such an assumption is expressed by the chairman of Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum, commenting on a revised plan for reform of Greece. These reforms is a necessary condition for bailout from the EU, reports Bloomberg.
Greece has threatened the European Union early parliamentary elections or a referendum to leave the eurozone if the Eurogroup approves reform plan submitted to it.

The European Central Bank started buying government bonds. According to The Wall Street Journal, on Monday, the Central Bank bought, in particular, the obligations of Germany, France, Italy and Belgium, but in small quantities. Yields on 10-year German bonds fell by 0.08 percentage points to 0.32%, Italian - by 4 basis points to 1.28%, reports Bloomberg. Greek bonds also rose, their yields fell to 9.8%.

Fisher (Fed): The economy is rapidly approaching full employment and rising interest rates in the near future will make the process more gradual. In general, the key Fed rhetoric matches, we recall that the expected significant change texts Minutes of the Fed this month, after which the expectations of the interest rate will increase significantly.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #269
  • Edited 8:12am Mar 10, 2015 8:01am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting SpikeCharts
NewsImpact provides a news widget that broadcasts the economic news data very fast. To launch the widget go to www.newsimpact.com and click on the Real Time News button which is located on the middle of the page. Using this widget there is no need to manually refresh the page. When the data are released they automatically show up with appropriate coloring AND with calculated deviation figures for both actual and revision. Nice eh?
Thanks man.

Supposedly, the news get released on 15:30:00, at that exact time the widget show it? Is it possible to get the number before actual time release like some say thomson reuters subscribers sometimes have advantage of 1 to 2 minutes before actual release.
  • #270
  • Mar 10, 2015 8:02am Mar 10, 2015 8:02am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Meant the one spikecharts shared.
  • #271
  • Mar 10, 2015 9:22am Mar 10, 2015 9:22am
The time on the upcoming releases is indicative, it is the official scheduled time. As we have seen in the past EU and US interest rates can be released minutes later. Last NFP was released 1 minute and 6 seconds after the scheduled time.
  • #272
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:07am Mar 11, 2015 3:07am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #273
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:34am Mar 11, 2015 4:34am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #274
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:42am Mar 11, 2015 4:42am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories. Check expected number tomorrow and Use a trigger of +-7 for Oil and +-2 for Gasoline. Read this article for the statistics:

*************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 4.8 Million-Barrel Build in Crude-Oil Stocks
Published: Mar 10, 2015
By Nicole Friedman

NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to rise in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 4.8 million barrels, on average, in the week ended March 6.

All 11 analysts expect stockpiles to increase. Forecasts range from a rise of 2 million barrels to an increase of 8.5 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.7 million barrels, according to analysts. Ten analysts expect a decline, with one expecting a rise. Estimates range from a rise of 500,000 barrels to a drop of 3 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 2.3 million barrels. All 11 analysts expect a decline. Forecasts range from a drop of 1.2 million barrels to a decrease of 3.3 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen falling 0.4 percentage point to 86.2% of capacity, based on EIA data. Seven analysts expect a decline, one expects a rise, one sees no change and two didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 0.3 point to a drop of 1.0 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its data for the same week showed that crude supplies fell by 404,000 barrels, while gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels and distillate inventories also rose by 1.7 million barrels, according to industry sources.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 3.3 -0.6 -1.4 0.3
Citi Futures Perspective 4.5 -1.5 -2.5 -0.5
Confluence Investment Management 6.0 -2.5 -2.0 -0.5
EBW AnalyticsGroup 8.5 -0.7 -1.2 -0.1
Excel Futures 8.1 -2.7 -3.3 -0.4
Frost & Sullivan 3.25 -2.0 -2.5 -0.5
IAF Advisors 5.0 0.5 -2.5 n/a
Price Futures Group 2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0
Ritterbusch and Associates 4.5 -3.0 -3.0 unch
Tradition Energy 2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.5
Tyche Capital Advisors 5.3 -1.25 -1.75 n/a

AVERAGE 4.8 -1.7 -2.3 -0.4

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #275
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:47am Mar 11, 2015 4:47am
Quoting SpikeCharts
The time on the upcoming releases is indicative, it is the official scheduled time. As we have seen in the past EU and US interest rates can be released minutes later. Last NFP was released 1 minute and 6 seconds after the scheduled time.
Ok, do you show the result at that exact 1 minute and 6 seconds of release?
  • #276
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:12am Mar 11, 2015 7:12am
wingstarfx
  • #277
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:35am Mar 11, 2015 7:35am
Quoting Ed-Forex
{quote} Ok, do you show the result at that exact 1 minute and 6 seconds of release?
The results are displayed immediately as the data become publicly available.

That small delay of the NFP data was due to the the weather warning in Washington DC.
  • #278
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:28pm Mar 11, 2015 12:28pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

NZ Official Cash Rate


Although economists do not forecast the RBNZ rate cut this time, but after the fall of inflation in New Zealand to 0.8%, the script reduce it to drop still not worth it.
Targeted CPI level of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in the range of 1% ... 3% of market expectations on the brink between the "bottom this year, in the second half" to "improve next year, to waive any changes to it." Expectations depend largely on the New Zealand statistics, in principle, as well as the decision itself Regulator. To a lesser extent (but also an important factor) - a global component: from the demand from China, the situation in the EU action and ending the US monetary regulation.
New Zealander worked well local statistics. Schedule NZD has not exacerbate rate cut expectations in this, the March release.
The global trend - the continuation of loose monetary policy, and the general direction of the US only knocked that on the contrary gathered to tighten their monetary relations.
For those "who are in the tank": Even when the fact is equal to the forecast (the rate will remain unchanged), and prerequisites for automated trading does not occur, the volatility may still occur for reasons parallel publication accompanying protocols.
For fans of this volatility, please, please note that after 5 minutes (only) after the publication of the decision will be a press conference RBNZ, not only planned speech control RBNZ Wheeler before Fin. Committee in Wellington.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #279
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:31pm Mar 11, 2015 12:31pm
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #280
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:38pm Mar 11, 2015 12:38pm
Thursday
2:30
12/03/15
3 Kommentarii3 new comments
AU Number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
14:30
12/03/15
The core US retail sales
(US Core Retail Sales), USA, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
16:30
12/03/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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