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The Slow Double Method to BIG gains

  • #61
  • Feb 16, 2015 7:59pm Feb 16, 2015 7:59pm
Quoting Trendzalore
Back to a new day. Put in $145 to start the week. Bad entry on my 1st trade but a decent on 2nd. Trade 1 if usdjpy stays under 118.23 by 9mpm eastern I will get $90 risked $28 trade if usdjpy is under 118.19 by 9pm I will get 90 risked $36. This will be my last attempt at the 2 hour binary if I miss. I will stick to the daily. Current balance after trades $78
Thought support at 118.32 was defeated. Turned out to be otherwise. Trades lost. The hour binaries provide good contracts but entries and momentum have to be pretty précises. I have made my biggest bucks trading them. But the daily is where I must stick to for this method. Allows for more time for trade to develop.

Since the trades were for loss I wont trade again for the day. Happy trading to you all.
  • #62
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:39pm Feb 16, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Thought support at 118.32 was defeated. Turned out to be otherwise. Trades lost. The hour binaries provide good contracts but entries and momentum have to be pretty prcises. I have made my biggest bucks trading them. But the daily is where I must stick to for this method. Allows for more time for trade to develop. Since the trades were for loss I wont trade again for the day. Happy trading to you all.
Setup occurred on usdjpy. So took the trade. Price needs to be under 118.40 by 3pm eastern. Risk $47 good 1:1 rr. The whole premise of the method anyways.
  • #63
  • Feb 18, 2015 8:48am Feb 18, 2015 8:48am
Last trade of the week for me if unsuccessful.

S&P must be over 2096 by4:15 pm eastern. Risk $115

If successful will return $270 for a net profit of $155.

Set and forget. This week I went for bad trades because I hesitated on the good ones. So This is a true set and forget. Trade is in. I wont look at it until it is closer to expiry. The only way I will be disciplined enough not to mess with the trade. It has been my hindrance in my other success when I reached a certain point. Each trade is from now on set and forget.
  • #64
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:35am Feb 18, 2015 11:35am
Good luck and thanks for sharing, Trendzalore.

I've been considering moving some of my capital into binaries myself to trade with a similar approach and goals. I can see Nadex is part of IG Group, so I presume IG UK would be the optimal choice in my case (?). Anyone with any relevant info do feel welcome to contact me. Thanks.
mind over matter
  • #65
  • Feb 18, 2015 2:24pm Feb 18, 2015 2:24pm
Price is fiddling around right at my strike. Not too long before expiry in under an hour. Took one contract off at $50 will let the other 2 contracts ride . Will TP at $90 per contract.

Should return $180 if successful. That would be a total of $230 with a net profit of 115 which is exactly 1:1 rr.
  • #66
  • Mar 1, 2015 12:51pm Mar 1, 2015 12:51pm
Will get back to it this week. The past week or 2 just havnt been all that good. Sometimes you go through losing streaks, it happens to everyone. It may be better this way to show everyone it is not as easy as you plan when doing things like this. But always persevere.
  • #67
  • Edited 8:09pm Mar 2, 2015 7:37pm | Edited 8:09pm
Alright, a good setup and 2 trades.

Trade 1 risk $40. If usdjpy below 120.02 by 10pm eastern will payout $100. A tad better than 1:1 rr. I'l take that.

Trade 2 Risk $50. If usdjpy touches 119.80 area by 11pm eastern I will receive $200. I have a 1:3 rr on this one. Could be more but I set my TP to execute if price gets near this area. Wont wait til expiry. All in all, if both trades pan out then $90 will have become $300. Lets see how it goes.
  • #68
  • Mar 2, 2015 7:39pm Mar 2, 2015 7:39pm
barriers to success on these trades are:

1hr upward trendline and daily pivot point.

I am aware of these.

Trying a new approach to early entry that has seemed ok while I practiced it. Time to see it live.
  • #69
  • Mar 2, 2015 8:04pm Mar 2, 2015 8:04pm
For the record. I could get out right now with a 1:1 rr and return of $100 plus an additional $100 but I will leave orders as is. As the sizes get bigger I cannot deviate from what I planned due to fear. The trades will succeed or not.

Truly my expectation all along was that trade 1 will return a profit. Trade 2 is more ambitious. Both would have made profit as of now. If they fail then I will be sure to note it and take profit at these levels next time.
  • #70
  • Mar 2, 2015 8:38pm Mar 2, 2015 8:38pm
Quoting Trendzalore
Alright, a good setup and 2 trades. Trade 1 risk $40. If usdjpy below 120.02 by 10pm eastern will payout $100. A tad better than 1:1 rr. I'l take that. Trade 2 Risk $50. If usdjpy touches 119.80 area by 11pm eastern I will receive $200. I have a 1:3 rr on this one. Could be more but I set my TP to execute if price gets near this area. Wont wait til expiry. All in all, if both trades pan out then $90 will have become $300. Lets see how it goes.
Success for trade 1. Took profit at $92. No need to wait til expiry for just 8 dollars. Still rr was better than 1:1. Happy with that trade.
  • #71
  • Mar 2, 2015 8:41pm Mar 2, 2015 8:41pm
Quoting Trendzalore
Alright, a good setup and 2 trades. Trade 1 risk $40. If usdjpy below 120.02 by 10pm eastern will payout $100. A tad better than 1:1 rr. I'l take that. Trade 2 Risk $50. If usdjpy touches 119.80 area by 11pm eastern I will receive $200. I have a 1:3 rr on this one. Could be more but I set my TP to execute if price gets near this area. Wont wait til expiry. All in all, if both trades pan out then $90 will have become $300. Lets see how it goes.
Trade 2 just took profit. Account now at $293. Started the day with $90. I will call this a good day and call it a night.

One of my previous failings was trying to get more after successful trades.

This time, my setup occurred. I took it. Made $200 in less than 2 hours and I will be happy with that and take the next step another day. Happy trading to you all.
  • #72
  • Mar 6, 2015 1:16pm Mar 6, 2015 1:16pm
Stayed out of trade for NFP. Next week should yeild some good setups.
  • #73
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:02pm Mar 6, 2015 9:02pm
Hi Trendzalore!

Thanks for sharing this. An eye opener. I will try this with me own set of new account. Following you with great interest.

Cheers!
  • #74
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:36am Mar 7, 2015 1:36am
Quoting Trendzalore
50
100
200
400
800 ending balance
This is absolute fail. The chances of this event occurring are (0.5)^4.
0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0625, or 6.25%. This is also not even taking into account commissions or spreads.

Quoting Trendzalore
100
200
400
800
1600
2300 ending balance
So let's say that you somehow miraculously made it to an $800 ending balance. The chances of turning $100 to $1,600 is 6.25%. 6.25% * 8 = 50%. There is no way around it. The higher ending balance you aim for, the less chance there is of this event occurring.
  • #75
  • Mar 7, 2015 7:45am Mar 7, 2015 7:45am
Quoting replaced
{quote} This is absolute fail. The chances of this event occurring are (0.5)^4. 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0625, or 6.25%. This is also not even taking into account commissions or spreads. {quote} So let's say that you somehow miraculously made it to an $800 ending balance. The chances of turning $100 to $1,600 is 6.25%. 6.25% * 8 = 50%. There is no way around it. The higher ending balance you aim for, the less chance there is of this event occurring.
I beg to differ. I have done this many times and it is the reason I made the thread. You also may not have read the whole thread because I trade Binary. The question about spread and commission is moot and has already been addressed.

If you cant win 4 trades in a row at some point then trading may not be for you. No offense.

The hard part is when the amounts get higher and you have to fight greed.
  • #76
  • Mar 7, 2015 7:46am Mar 7, 2015 7:46am
Quoting ItsReal307
Hi Trendzalore! Thanks for sharing this. An eye opener. I will try this with me own set of new account. Following you with great interest. Cheers!
Thanks! As you can see, it seems simple but it is not an easy road.
  • #77
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:42am Mar 7, 2015 10:42am
Quoting replaced
{quote} This is absolute fail. The chances of this event occurring are (0.5)^4. 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0625, or 6.25%. This is also not even taking into account commissions or spreads. {quote} So let's say that you somehow miraculously made it to an $800 ending balance. The chances of turning $100 to $1,600 is 6.25%. 6.25% * 8 = 50%. There is no way around it. The higher ending balance you aim for, the less chance there is of this event occurring.

replaced, you again are asserting certain assumptions without actually disclosing them. Your math is correct for independent events that may or may not occur in the future. Your math is correct only on Trade 0. It is not correct once Trade 1 or Trade 2 or Trade 3 etc is actually completed. Look at the issue more as a dependent or conditional probability.

While I don't agree with your assertion of 50% winrate I will still use it in the example. The trader places a trade and is successful and has won 1R. The only thing that matters is what should he do next. He went from $50 to $100 total equity. How much does he trade and what is the probability of a win on his very next trade. Trendzalore says that he will trade $100 on his next trade. His money, he can trade anything that he wishes. The question really is "What is the probability of a win given that he has already won Trade 1?"

I am hoping that you agree that the probability of him winning is 50% (again using your winrate assumptions).

While probability appears to be mathematical in nature it truly is philosophical in nature. It is how you look at the problem and at what stage of formation that you look at the problem.

Trendzalore looks at his world as discrete time events but you are looking at it as a continuous series. It is analogous to argueing is Light a wave or a particle.

Neither of you will ever be in agreement with the other because your world view is different. Discrete vs continuous etc etc.
  • #78
  • Edited 10:56am Mar 7, 2015 10:45am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} I beg to differ. I have done this many times and it is the reason I made the thread. You also may not have read the whole thread because I trade Binary. The question about spread and commission is moot and has already been addressed. If you cant win 4 trades in a row at some point then trading may not be for you. No offense. The hard part is when the amounts get higher and you have to fight greed.
I've just showed you the chances of winning 4 times in a row. It's less than 6.25%. Because of this, it's actually worse if you set aside $100 to try and turn it from $100 to $1600. You might as well take the entire $800 and try to turn it into $1600 since you'll have less commission to pay and spread.

So a better strategy is actually:

50
100
200
400
800
1600
3200
6400
12800
25600
...

Of course you'll have to stop at some point, otherwise the probability of losing money is 100%. The chances of turning $50 to $25,600 is less than 0.195% or 1 out of 512.

Quoting flyer415
{quote} replaced, you again are asserting certain assumptions without actually disclosing them. Your math is correct for independent events that may or may not occur in the future. Your math is correct only on Trade 0. It is not correct once Trade 1 or Trade 2 or Trade 3 etc is actually completed.
Of course it's not correct after the event is completed because it's already happened. You can say the same about the lottery or casino games.
  • #79
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:59pm Mar 7, 2015 12:59pm
Quoting replaced
{quote} I've just showed you the chances of winning 4 times in a row. It's less than 6.25%. Because of this, it's actually worse if you set aside $100 to try and turn it from $100 to $1600. You might as well take the entire $800 and try to turn it into $1600 since you'll have less commission to pay and spread. So a better strategy is actually: 50 100 200 400 800 1600 3200 6400 12800 25600 ... Of course you'll have to stop at some point, otherwise the probability of losing money is 100%. The chances of turning $50 to $25,600 is less than 0.195% or...
For the last time. Trying to get so many wins in a row is not sustainable.

4 Trades in a row. Start over. Wash rinse repeat.

This allows a person to lose and still have capitol rise. If this is too hard for you to comprehend that is fine. We all have our own way of looking at things. If you feel this wont work you are certainly free to look past this thread.

Take a look at the steps, if you cant see how this is done then there isn't much else to say but stand aside while others do something to grow their account.
  • #80
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:02pm Mar 7, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting flyer415
{quote} replaced, you again are asserting certain assumptions without actually disclosing them. Your math is correct for independent events that may or may not occur in the future. Your math is correct only on Trade 0. It is not correct once Trade 1 or Trade 2 or Trade 3 etc is actually completed. Look at the issue more as a dependent or conditional probability. While I don't agree with your assertion of 50% winrate I will still use it in the example. The trader places a trade and is successful and has won 1R. The only thing that matters is what...
Good point Flyer. I don't believe he is taking into account a trader should have an edge which puts probability on his side. An edge in probability makes his assertions non admissible in this environment. To each his own however.
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