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EURUSD

  • #966,481
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:13am Mar 6, 2015 7:13am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Personally prefer to read the data first
cancelled, could go higher will try 10 am fix
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #966,482
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:14am Mar 6, 2015 7:14am
Likely to bounce
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  • #966,483
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:15am Mar 6, 2015 7:15am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} cancelled, could go higher will try 10 am fix
Smart

NFP and UR are not the only deciding factor for USD at the same time mixed with CAD so the reaction could be unpredictable until it settled down

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  • #966,484
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:19am Mar 6, 2015 7:19am
short ahead, and this time is going to be really furiouse, so bealt on ! -)

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  • #966,485
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:21am Mar 6, 2015 7:21am
472 glued to this forum. wow. Something great happening in 10 mins.
  • #966,486
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:21am Mar 6, 2015 7:21am
Quoting Miguel.N
short ahead, and this time is going to be really furiouse ! -) {image}
i have a feeling we gonna push a bit higher first to take out those weak shorts....
  • #966,487
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:21am Mar 6, 2015 7:21am
Quoting sisse
Here we go again for a new ECB conference. Expecting a mild impact conference that will fully complete with NFP and the weekly roll....
On the fundamental side...
And here we go for a new NFP day to complete the ECB combo.

On the fundamental side.

A slightly irrelevant [from a fundamental perspective] NFP expected with a bit lower than forecast numbers as the most probable outcome. Anything between 220K to 260K will be inline and wont have FA implications. Very straight forward reading today:

  1. Inline and or better than expected. Measured rally in equities, carrying dollar and leaving the FED hikes clearly set to Jun/Aug.
  2. An undershoot will trigger profit taking in equities and will add a fuel for the next FED meeting as the FED hawkish will be on the spotlight. Nothing major expected but enough to put a slowdown on the momentum of the current leg in euro.

Quote
Simply two options in play but the actual play will extend until the weekly roll:

  1. An extension leg to 1.07xx or
  2. A wide chop range formation to 1.140x (from 1.10xx). [failure]

...

On the technical side

I underestimated the reaction on the QE ECB. Markets went for the full extension swing. For today only an undershoot will only delay the unovoidable (completing the extension to 1.07xx)

Quote
Wide range make things a lot harder intraday but 3 options in play

  1. In general inline with expectation economic outlook and no inflation concerns play, a zigzag set in play. Fading 1.106x[check] to kill weak hands and option to 1.098x [check] before pushing up and settling for the daily roll around 1.108x for the NFP leg [FAILURE]...

...


For the actual flow and news play:

ZigZag final leg got truncated on the roll yesterday so in a bit of chasing mode for those who waited for NFP. A simple and straight forward map for today:

  1. Inline or slightly better NFP (not expected) will open 1.0707x with intermediate stop at 1.086x. Slightly better or overshoot is direct trade if you are not already in to a max entry point 1.098x . Inline will open 1.102x and slower choppy end of the session on the lows.
  2. An undershoot and we will have the low of the week in place for a direct move to 1.102x on profit taking with a max extension to 1.114x for next week.

From a TA pespective all card already dealt, only the NFP confirmation for the next mov

GL all trading NFP

ssisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #966,488
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:23am Mar 6, 2015 7:23am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Smart NFP and UR are not the only deciding factor for USD at the same time mixed with CAD so the reaction could be unpredictable until it settled down {image}

The USD reminds me of AUD back in April 2013. Trade balance shit and super high currency. Not to mention the price of oil exacerbating the situation even more. The only difference btw AUD and USD is Monetary Policy (the one that counts anyway). We'll see just how much that helps the U.S weather the real storm.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #966,489
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:24am Mar 6, 2015 7:24am
WTI positioning on IGmarkets.... The crowd is usually..... right?
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  • #966,490
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:32am Mar 6, 2015 7:32am
oh well, another push down?
  • #966,491
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:34am Mar 6, 2015 7:34am
boom.. headshot!
"The Public Sucks" - George Carlin
  • #966,492
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:35am Mar 6, 2015 7:35am
fxtyrant is going to watch 50 shades of grey and unleashing his whip tonight..
  • #966,493
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:35am Mar 6, 2015 7:35am
Quoting sisse
For the actual flow and news play:

  1. Inline or slightly better NFP (not expected) will open 1.0707x with intermediate stop at 1.086x. Slightly better or overshoot is direct trade if you are not already in to a max entry point 1.098x . Inline will open 1.102x and slower choppy end of the session on the lows.
  2. An undershoot and we will have the low of the week in place for a direct move to 1.102x on profit taking with a max extension to 1.114x for next week.

Superb numbers !!!!! and that was quick. Done to the first target. A tick below 1.086x opens clean sweep !!! to 1.070x with NY opening range...

Well done all bears from above ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #966,494
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:36am Mar 6, 2015 7:36am
Thanks NFP!!!
Without an edge MM is useless!
  • #966,495
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:36am Mar 6, 2015 7:36am
take the elevator to the ground floor please!
  • #966,496
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:36am Mar 6, 2015 7:36am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} doin nothing man...been awesome weekend and im still in chill mode here. some errons to take care off, otherwizze 1,087 would be nice. but atm eurxxx supported.
we are here.
  • #966,497
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:37am Mar 6, 2015 7:37am
Quoting egkid
{quote} like orange but mine 1.0980 edit: my sell limit @ 1.0980 but need to see it when news coming not now time important to my way of trading
Quoting egkid
{quote} 1.0885 i will b waiting it
Target hit
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  • #966,498
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:37am Mar 6, 2015 7:37am
Yeehaw
  • #966,499
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:37am Mar 6, 2015 7:37am
Quoting HelloOz
fxtyrant is going to watch 50 shades of grey and unleashing his whip tonight..
yep, i had my whipping before! but then came around the right way
  • #966,500
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:37am Mar 6, 2015 7:37am
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